With about 39 hours left to play in the electoral college challenge, we’ve got a heavy tilt toward Kerry. There are still a few (plausible) combinations remaining in a Kerry win, but not many. If you think Bush is going to win, though, there’s a lot of leeway. So get your votes in now!

The prize: a copy of Jon Stewart�€™s America (the Book): A Citizen�€™s Guide to Democracy Inaction, paid for by me, mailed to you.

The game: Predict the number of electors George Bush and John Kerry will win.

The rules:
1.) You must identify the exact total. I�€™m generous in a cheapskate kind of way. If no one wins, you can try to lobby me if you�€™re the closest. Flattery a plus, but you never know.

2.) You must not be too paranoid to send me your address, otherwise I can�€™t send you the book.

3.) You cannot select a total already selected (which is an incentive to reserve your number today!).

How to play: Go to this handy electoral calculator and click on the states you think the candidates will win. Note the tally, listed below, and dart back here to record your entry. I�€™ll accept the first entry in case of duplicates. All selections valid until 8am (Eastern time) November 2.

Good Luck!

The Final Tally [Updated 9:02 am PDT, Nov 2]

Kerry Victory
370-158 (the very optimistic Thehim)
352-186 (CJ)
346-192 (Ploeg)
342-196 (Mark G.)
341-197 (Jarrett)
337-201 (Spanky)
336-202 (Alex)
331-207 (Thane, making me do the math)
330-208 (Donna)
328-201 (eRobin, betting on the Colorado split)
326-212 (Stellans)
325-213 (Fred V.)
322-216 (Russ B.)
321-217 (Folkbum)
320-218 (Sasha)
319-219 (Cat)
316-222 (D Stein)
315-223 (Flory)
313-224 (Josh, predicting a loose WV vote)
312-226 (Larry, not fooling)
312-225 (Mark, fooling with WV and ME)
311-227 (me)
309-229 (Karen)
308-230 (Alabama Yankee)
307-231 (Richard K)
306-232 (Carli)
305-233 (Deborah B.)
304-234 (Tom S.)
303-235 (Amberglow)
302 -236 (Reba)
300-238 (Dave, another Colorado splitter)
298-240 (Space)
297-241 (Rainey)
289-249 (Kenneth C.)
287-251 (Andy)
288-250 (Kevin H.)
286-252 (Barbara O.)
285-255 (Iocaste)
284-253-1 (Yami, winning on creativity)
283-255 (D. Knezek)
280-258 (Adam D.)
279-259 (Karim)
279-258-1 (Shari)
278-260 (Goat Boy)
277-261 (Henry)
274-264 (Chuck)
271-267 (Rodger, going with a squeaker)

Bush victory
311-227 (Iggi, via email)
279-259 (Jim)
278-260 (PW, hoping to be wrong)
277-261 (General Glut)

Doom
269-269 (Mark)

The polls are flying fast and furious as the campaign draws to a close. Every conceivable subpopulation has been broken down again and again, including cell phone users, who have been famously excluded from telephone polling so far. Zogby just released results of a cell phone text messaging poll that gave Kerry a 55-40 lead in that subgroup, which also reported very high intentions to vote. But one group keeps getting missed: Indian astrologers.

Surveys in the United States may be showing the race for president as too close to call but top Indian astrologers say the planets have clearly made up their mind: John Kerry will win. Planets governing President Bush are eclipsed and in an uncomfortable position, making his tenure controversial and his re-election bid unsuccessful, the soothsayers said on Friday, four days before the vote. On the other hand, the planets of Democratic challenger Senator John Kerry were in the ascendant, ensuring him success in competitions.

“Saturn, which is the lord of health and fortune for President Bush, has been eclipsed by the Sun, which is unfortunate and gives him a clear defeat,” Lachhman Das Madan, editor of a popular astrology magazine, told Reuters.

“Kerry will win,” said Madan, who is also known as “the emperor of astrologers.” “It is cosmic writ that George W. Bush cannot become president of United States again.”

Ajai Bhambi, a senior astrologer and author of several books on the science of predictions, agreed. “Kerry is likely to beat Bush in the final verdict,” he told the New Indian Express newspaper. Bejan Daruwalla, another top astrologer, told Reuters he had yet to calculate who would win Tuesday’s election. But Bush, even if he won, would not be allowed by his planets to complete a full term, he said.

Who am I to argue with the lord of health and fortune?

Our declining healthcare system has added 6 million to the uninsured and left us vulnerable to the flu this year for the first time in decades, because our government failed to respond quickly enough.

And it could get worse:

Flu pandemics — global epidemics of new strains of disease that kill an unusually high number of people — come on average every 27 years. The last one was in 1968.

“We are 36 years out. We believe that we are closer to the next pandemic than we ever were,” Stohr told a news conference.

“There is this new subtype in Asia circulating in poultry. It appears it is only a question of time until this subtype moves into humans.”

FROM POULTRY TO PEOPLE

So far the H5N1 flu has infected 44 people and killed 32 of them, Stohr said. Other studies presented to the conference show the virus has not yet acquired the ability to move from human to human.

Once it does, experts agree, it could spread quickly and kill millions.

This also demonstrates how unprepared we are for a bioterror attack. We’ve actually grown WORSE since 9-11 on that front. And we’ve never caught the anthrax mailer who killed several Americans with several mailings.

About these issues, it seems our government only yawns in the face of disaster.

It’s closer than the 2000 race polls, with 4 of 5 saying dead heat.

Rasmussen: 48.1 - 47.1 Bush, counting leaners: 48.8 - 48.2
Zogby Track: 48 - 48
ABC News: 48-48
TIPP Track: 48-43 Bush(but lists 7% undecided, which no other pollster has higher than 2-3 pts)
Fox News: 47-45 Kerry, among likely voters: 46-46
NBC /WSJ: 48-47 Bush

In 2000 at this point, it was Bush 47-44, and Gore won the popular vote. Also, we finally see a new twist as mobile phone users get polled, supporting Kerry 55-40 !

From Zogby:

Only 2 percent of voters remain undecided as Bush and Kerry scour about 10 remaining battleground states to find the 270 electoral votes they need to win on Tuesday.

“Each man has consolidated his own base,” pollster John Zogby said.

“Bush has good leads in the red states, among investors, and among Republicans, born-again Christians, men and married voters,” he said. “Kerry has a solid lead in the blue states and trumps Bush among young voters, African Americans, Hispanics, Democrats, women, union voters and singles.”

Bush earned a positive job performance rating from 46 percent and a negative rating from 53 percent.

The Massachusetts senator had a 51-41 percent edge among newly registered voters, an unpredictable group that could be a wild card on Tuesday depending on how many actually turn out to vote.

At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Gore by two points in the daily tracking poll.

The downside of Zogby?

Kerry had the lead in 6 of 10 battleground states being polled separately, but Bush expanded his lead to five percentage points in the showdown state of Ohio. However, Zogby’s numbers indicate Kerry will win WI 52-44, should win MN 49-46 and PA 49-46, and is almost there in MI 48-47 and IA 47-46.

But wait…

Zogby’s numbers show Kerry will win because of one state: FL 49-47, while losing NM by 9%, as the only differences since 2000 (and some would argue FL’s not different)

Mason-Dixon, though, says Bush leads FL 4%, and Rasmussen says Bush 1%Rasmussen has IA tied.Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon give Kerry MN by 2% and 3%
Mason Dixon says it’s closer in NM (Bush 4%)
Mason Dixon and Rasmussen have OH closer (3%, 1% Bush)
Mason Dixon and Rasmussen have PA closer (2% Kerry)
Mason Dixon and Rasmussen have WI closer (2% Kerry)

Other pollsters have other surprises:

Columbus Dispatch has Kerry making a 7% surge to a tie, with internals and momentum clearly Kerry’s way.

ARG says NV 49-49
SurveyUSA says NM 48-47 Kerry
ARG says NH 47-47

Kerry’s visited Ohio 26 times to Bush’s 18 so he can’t be faulted for not trying hard enough. Bush’s last minute speech/ad themes in Ohio underline issues I don’t hear as much in his OR ads: Kerry’s low NRA ratings and that he doesn’t share strong moral/family values. If Bush wins Ohio, it will mean gay marriage (which is on the ballot) trumped a rotten Bush economic performance, even though both candidates are opposed to gay marriage. If Kerry wins, it will be because of new voter registration efforts particularly in Cleveland/Akron/Toledo…. AND BECAUSE Kerry’s a GREAT campaigner.

95%-96% of voters for both candidates say they won’t change their minds now, and it looks like Nader will come in with under 1%

At Electoral Vote predictor, the Votemaster’s been promising a surprise due tomorrow as he reveals his (her?) identity.

In the Senate, Zogby has Castor holding Graham’s D seat 48-45 and Salazar picking up an R seat 49-46. Other polls indicate Tony Knowles clings to a small lead in AK, another pickup, with Inez Tenenbaum losing a D seat in SC.

Obama will pickup an R seat in IL. Polling suggests Brad Carson is not likely to pick up OK. And Zell Miller’s D seat is gone.

Daniel Mongiardo (KY), Tom Daschle (SD), Erskine Bowles (NC) remain too close to call. So does LA, where Vitter (49%) is perilously close to winning outright. Using these 4, the Senate could end up 54-47-1 Republican to 50-49-1 Democrat. Polling trends suggest Bowles has the edge in NC, and Bunning in KY. If that’s the case, the worst case would be a 2 seat gain by the GOP. The best case would be a 1 seat gain by the Dems. If Bush wins the White House, the Senate will effectively be R still, no matter what. If Kerry wins, a 1 seat gain will be enough to grab the edge. If Daschle loses his seat, look for Harry Reid (NV) to be the next Dem Senate leader.

One tantalizing outcome would be if the Dems succeed in keeping Vitter (LA) from 50%, because that would mean a Dec runoff, and LA’s Dem party might not coalesce to hold a seat that’s usually Dem due to fractures - including racial - that have occurred this year. However, if Kerry wins the top job, and Dems come in 1 vote shy of a Senate tie, the pressure will be intense for LA to get its act together.

Overall, the latest polls now suggest Kerry’s got the momentum to win this race while the Senate leans by a similar slim margin, towards staying Republican.

GOTV efforts are critical, but OH, FL, and IA seem like the closest races to watch for Tuesday night.

Like Russ, in the post below, I’m seeing changes in my state that will bring a close election in Virginia, which is becoming a swing state:

For Va. Activists, a Closing Surge
GOP, Democratic Rallies Stoke Passions on Final Weekend

By Michelle Boorstein and Michael D. Shear
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, October 31, 2004; Page C01

Virginia’s Democrats pushed their party toward John F. Kerry in February by handing him a southern victory in the presidential primaries. Now, Virginia Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) and his party are battling history, the polls and a state Republican Party determined to keep Kerry from defeating President Bush on Tuesday.

On Friday, Warner had predicted a “surprise” on Election Day, as he sought to provide hope to activists canvassing the state this weekend.

Yesterday, Democrats gathered in Arlington to rally supporters in their strongest region of the state.

“The sky is gray, but the state is blue!” Mike Brown, campaign manager for Rep. James P. Moran Jr. (D), yelled to about 50 people who rallied in a soggy Arlington park yesterday before fanning out to neighborhoods and reminding people to vote.

Local legend has it that if the Redskins win their last home game before the presidential election, the incumbent wins. This has been true for the last 17 presidential contests, before the ‘Skins came to Washington. Right now, the Packers are shredding the Skins, 20-7 halfway through the third quarter.

The only suspense for me Tuesday night will be in the exit polling: I’m going to be very curious to see how the military vote, a big part of Virginia, breaks out. I’m hearing enlisted are going heavily for Kerry.

UPDATE: Today’s Electoral Vote calculator agrees.

Early voting has ended in North Carolina, and it was a smashing success. I voted last Monday at one of Durham’s four One Stop voting sites, a junior high school down the street from my house, and the line ran through the lobby and just out the front doors. Every day thereafter, when I drove past it to and from work, the line was longer than the day before. By Friday, it was stretching around the building. The Durham Herald-Sun reports that about 1/3 of registered voters in Durham County (152, 719 registered voters) and neighboring Orange County (95,570) cast early ballots. Similar rates prevailed for surrounding counties. This area is easily the most strongly Democratic part of North Carolina; Kerry stickers and signs vastly outnumber Bush ones. Heavy turnout here is good news for Democrats all the way down the ballot. And who is turning out? Durham’s Board of Elections director said, “We have a lot of young people voting, which I have never seen before. I think it’s wonderful.”

Orange County is home to UNC-Chapel Hill (ahem - BOOYAH!), while Durham County hosts Duke and NC Central. College students, traditionally hard to mobilize here, have come out in droves. The useful comparison is to voting rates in Winston-Salem, a strongly conservative city and home to GOP Senate candidate Richard Burr. With 212,289 registered voters in the county, only 12% - 24,579 - showed up early. Statewide, over a million early ballots were cast, about 20% of the state’s 5.5 million registered voters. The Democratic areas are far outstripping the rest of the state.

The Kerry campaign erred in not aggressively contesting North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes; it has always been closer than the polls reflected. While ads for the Senate and gubernatorial races are ubiquitous (and nasty), neither presidential campaign has shown up much on television here. Luckily, the rest of the country is shaping up such that Kerry won’t need it. Bush may end up taking NC, but the talking heads are going to be expressing shock at how close the race is here once the polls close Tuesday night. Don’t expect it to get called early. This cycle is the last time anybody questions whether North Carolina is a swing state. Watch Virginia and West Virginia closely as well - all three will be close. Kerry should take the Electoral College easily, but don’t be complacent. Call your friends, call your family, talk to your neighbors, and make sure they turn out on Tuesday.

The GOP says that Osama’s tape is a “little gift” and that they want people to “think terrorism” during the final days of the campaign. They say people being “nervous about their personal safety” helps Bush.

If this surprises anyone they haven’t been paying attention. These are sick, twisted people. They don’t care about America’s safety. All they care about is getting re-elected so they can continue plundering our treasury.

President Bush asks “who do you trust?” and says he offers “leadership and resolve for a time of threat and a time of challenge.”

He says “We are staying on the offensive against the terrorists across the globe so we don’t have to face them at home.”

In Florida he says “Americans will go to the polls Tuesday in a time of war and ongoing threats. The terrorists who killed thousands of innocent people are still dangerous, and they’re determined to strike. The outcome of this election will set the direction of the war against terror. The most solemn duty of the American President is to protect the American people.”

Read the rest of this entry »

On the last Sunday before the election, I’m going to be surveying the Sabbath gasbags and editorial sections for commentary which actually tracks with our war dead. The censored cable TV press give us an antiseptic war. Unless you read Al-Jazeerah, you don’t see the footage of the dead and wounded. You’ll never see a Time magazine cover photo like the ones that turned the Viet Nam war: a picture of a brain blown out or a girl on Napalm fire. You won’t see any of that on our domesticated media.

American “reality” is relegated to the get rich quick schemes of “American Idol,” “The Disciple” and the bug eaters of “Fear Factor” or “Survivor.” Such self-involvement is the stuff of the Bush presidency. When this is over, we’ll see if Americans retain any community spirit or if they have gone the way of Seinfeld, no hugging and no thinking.

All the funnest news comes from Florida lately. Friday, former Mayor Ed Koch’s admission that he’s opposed to Bush on every domestic issue, coupled with the admission that he intends to be campaigning for Hilary in 2008 kinda made it clear why he’s opposing Kerry.

Saturday, the shocker came from an article about Michael Moore in Florida, as a Congresswoman amped her rhetoric up to the highest level yet:

Moore’s friend Corrine Brown disagrees. She thinks that attempting to oust Mr Nader from the race was a necessary move.

She said: “You are in a battle with a person that has all the money, has the power of the media, his brother is the governor, we need to make sure that we kill a mosquito with an axe.

“This election is too crucial, I mean we’ve got to win, what happens when failure is not an option?”

The congresswoman also had some stirring words of advice for John Kerry, and urged him to fight dirty in the remaining days before the election.

She said: “Mr Kerry is a nice man, he’s an officer and a gentleman, he is in a war with a bunch of thugs…

“I want him to cut [Bush’s] heart out if he has to!”

If only he had a heart….

For all the vaunted expert knowledge about the impact of terrorism on the American psyche. the internal demographics indicate security is a concern within two demographics: retirees, and to a much smaller degree, women.

For the most part, the swing states are behaving as one would normally predict, responding to the most basic economics, as reflected by the unemployment rate.

I’ve included all the 2000 swing states, where neither candidate got higher than 55%, plus one of the two that came into play this year. I put them in order of the greatest unemployment loss percentages, during Bush’s term (1/01 - 9/04).

OR 4.8 now 7.3 (up2.5%)
CO 2.6 now 4.9 (up 2.3%)
MI 4.6 now 6.8 (up 2.2%)
OH 3.9 now 6.0 (up 2.1%)
IA 3.0 now 4.7 (up 1.7%)
ME 3.3 now 4.7 (up 1.4%)

This group is the most likely to go to Kerry on economics alone. Maine has largely stayed above the fray because the Gore & Nader vote actually beat Bush by 11%, so it really should be a Blue state.

The very high unemployment rates overall that I highlighted in OR, OH, and MI, plus the high rates of increase, should make them out of Bush’s reach. So if any of those three especially fall to Bush on Election night, the race - imo - will be over. For Bush to win against these three unemployment rates would indicate that people have concerns above their own wallets - which is uncommon in presidential politics.

If all 6 go for Kerry, he’ll have a net gain of 29 EC votes.

———-

The second group is iffy territory. Unemployment’s gotten worse, but not terribly so. Heavily populated states in this group mean a lot more real jobs lost than in smaller states, despite similar percentages. Those near the top should be leaning slightly Kerry and those at the bottom should lean slightly Bush. But all could be more susceptible to other factors and issues than the group above.

MN 3.3 now 4.6 (up 1.3%)
MO 4.4 now 5.6 (up 1.2%)
PA 4.2 now 5.3 (up 1.1%)
WI 3.9 now 5.0 (up 1.1%)
TN 4.0 now 5.1 (up 1.1%)
AZ 3.8 now 4.8 (up 1.0%)
AR 4.7 now 5.5 (up 0.8%)
VA 2.5 now 3.2 (up 0.7%)
NH 2.8 now 3.5 (up 0.7%)

Polling numbers suggest that from TN down, the unemployment rates aren’t high enough to grant Kerry an edge. This is why MN, PA and WI are likely to go down to the wire. And why does NH lean Kerry? Many of its residents are Massachusetts ex-pats who already appreciated Kerry when he was their Senator. I would expect AZ’s high support of Bush this time goes back to my premise that its high number of retirees are concerned about security moreso than the others in this group. TN is called the volunteer state because of its tradition of higher than normal military service, and may be reflecting older veterans’ disapproval of Kerry’s antiwar actions 33 years ago.

Read the rest of this entry »

I haven’t had much time to report, as I’m busy GOTVing. I just have a couple of anecdotes about the scene here in Multnomah County, Oregon. (Multnomah includes Portland and is the most populous county in the state,)

One of our canvassers finally ran into some Republicans canvassing. The canvassers explained that they were unemployed people looking for work. The temp agency they work for had been instructed to advertise for canvassers to get out the vote. They found out they were working for the Republicans, having been given a list of Republicans and Independents to contact. They told our canvasser that they had scorned the free t-shirts, really supported Kerry, were just doing it for the $10/hour, and were walking slowly. (Thank goodness, the Republicans finally created some jobs.)

Another volunteer visited the Republican headquarters in the early evening to find it dark and locked, After persisting with knocks on the door, they found 4 or 5 volunteers working.

In the meantime, the Multnomah county Dem offices sent out nearly 500 canvassers. Michael Moore called in via speakerphone to rev up the first group of 200 at 11 am. They didn’t fit in the warehouse we’re running the canvasses from. Congressman Earl Blumenauer stood on a folding chair and stoked the second and third waves. People were streaming in all day, ready to do anything.

When I left at 11:30pm, people were still on the phones–calling Hawaii.

Our volunteers are better then their volunteers; even better than the people they’re paying.

Our teammate, Dave Johnson, got invited to join Joe Trippi, Matt from BOPnews, Karl with a K, someone from RedState and some others, at MSNBC’s Hardblogger. He just posted his first there. (Congrats, Dave!)

He’ll be there through election night I believe. Wonkette, Trippi, someone from Powerline will also be part of an election night panel.

I sure hope to hear that a great big media enterprise like that will compensate these bloggers, above and beyond mere expenses. Most of them are trained professionals, after all, even if not schooled in the arts of journalism (though some are). And they obviously know how to output readable, interesting news; otherwise, why would they get an invite?

Exposure is a nice plus but very fleeting. The last thing I want to see is bloggers becoming the underpaid paper carriers of the virtual news empire, because the tips are meager indeed. As they’re adding value to their content stream, even temporarily, I hope major media outlets will make it a good faith endeavor by establishing a standard of an appearance fee.

Will MSNBC blaze the way? Or will they suck off the talent pool and stay behind the curve with all the other outlets and their multi-billion dollar enterprises?

Hardblogger or Scroogeblogger? (We retort; you decide.)

It seems as if there’s a little crack forming in all this Republican triumphalism we’ve been hearing

With control of the Senate hanging on nine nip-and-tuck contests, anxious candidates and their allies worked feverishly to gain an edge in races notable for their nastiness, their expense and their intense focus on local issues and personalities.

In the main Senate battlegrounds of the South and the West, as well as in contested House territory throughout the nation, volunteers engaged in a frenzy of last-minute door-knocking and telephoning as the airwaves carried the final salvos of what has been a bitter Congressional campaign season.

Republicans and independent analysts continued to believe that Republicans would maintain their slim hold on the House, in part because redistricting in Texas has put five Democrats there in jeopardy, and probably keep control of the Senate. But a surge of early voting, the uncertain influence of the presidential race and a rise in registered voters in swing states had even the most savvy political veterans unwilling to hazard hard predictions.

“I’d rather be in our position than the Democrats’,” said Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Senate’s second-ranking Republican. “But the truth of the matter is, who knows what’s going to happen?”

The harsh political season has been a reflection, in part, of the partisanship on Capitol Hill, where Democrats and Republicans have locked horns on issues like judicial nominations and energy legislation. The campaigns became intensely personal, with attacks on family members, insinuations that candidates were soft on terrorists and, at the last minute, a suggestion by Kentucky Republicans about the sexual orientation of the Democratic Senate candidate.

In the Times, yet.

Republicans understand about the power of money to roll the system. The rank and file have donated lots of money to use in Keep In the Vote activities. They don’t have the votes, so they can’t afford to let us vote.

Gracious, this has been a brutal few weeks.

There’s been a learned helplessness thing going on with us, I think - this kind of bullshit always works, so it doesn’t seem as if fighting is going to do any good.

Do you honestly think those nice folks running the campaigns on the other side haven’t figured that out? A lot of the bullshit isn’t even useful to them. It’s just in their interest for us to see them getting away with bullshit.

There are people out there fighting, and it doesn’t do them a bit of good if we give up on their behalf (and on behalf of the people who are going to be badly hurt if they lose).

Please, if you can, donate a few bucks to them. I want to feel as if people who are not wired into the system can make a difference. Please help.

I’m always amazed by how many of you there are.

Speak up, huh?

Hell, there’s a Democrat neck and neck in Staten Island. If that won’t give you goosebumps, I don’t know what will.

Setting: A crisp September morning, somewhere in the rugged mountains of Pakistan.

Osama: Ayman! Would you look at this!

Zawahiri: What? Have the infidels come to send us to the merciful Allah? (looks around nervously)

Osama: No. Over here. On the internets.

Zawahiri: What is the meaning of this? This “October Surprise”?

Osama: It is a way to influence the elections of the Imperial Goatman. The Democratic infidels have been saying lately that the Goatherder Rove is planning this surprise as a strategy to get his Goatman elected.

Zawahiri: What kind of a surprise?

Osama: According to these reports, they are best timed 3 or 4 days before the election. They can be something scandalous about the challenger or something that makes voters rally ’round their Goatman.

Zawahiri: So what is the importance to us?

Osama: Do you remember what happens when they announce a terror alert?

Zawahiri: No, Imam. I am kept too busy negotiating to buy the flu viruses for our scientists, for the winter intifada. I have no time to surf the internets for all this trivia that fascinates you so.

Osama: Every time there is a warning that we plan an attack, the Goatman’s support goes up 3 or 4 percentage points for about a week. The polling organizations have verified this.

Zawahiri: But I do not see the value in this. We must work on the dissemination plans for when the flu virus is at the peak of its lethal cycle.

Osama: Ayman. We have discussed the need before to keep the useful Goatman working. He has pulled his troops from the Holy Places as we requested. He has forgiven Khan for all the nuclear devices he has spread to so many. He has acted to kill tens of thousands of innocent Muslims in Babylon, uniting the Sunnis and Shias in opposition to his imperial designs. He has even angered his allies. While they grow fewer, he has driven young recruits our way faster than we can train them. Allah has sent him to serve our needs beyond anything we could imagine, hasn’t he?

Zawahiri: Yes, Imam, I remember the details. But I do not understand why they are related to this new information. Oh wait. You mean that we should send communications of a pending attack so they intercept it and can announce a new alert? This will get the Goatman elected? That’s brilliant! Your planning remains wise!

Osama: Oh, but that would be insufficient. What if they intercept us and don’t announce the alert? We must make this plan perfect.

Zawahiri: I know! Let us use one of our American brothers. We will have him deliver a video warning of another attack, a bigger attack that will make the last look puny by comparison. People will think we have built our first nuclear bomb. And they will know we have active members in their country, still.

Osama: You are catching on, Ayman. I will use your ideas, too. But I will also deliver a video with my message, too.

Zawahiri: What will be your message?

Osama: I will tell them I have no interest in their elections. Then I will mock their Goatman to make them think I am challenging their leader, so they will rally to his defense. We will give him his support to assure his election. It is the best way we can maintain the growth he has provided us. And soon the Great Superpower will have only a handful of friends left on its side.

Zawahiri: Imam! You are blessed with the wisdom of Allah!

Osama: Oh, but there is more, my good Doctor. I must summon my wives to prepare me. This time, I will have my robes cleaned and pressed. I will have them trim and comb me. I will appear without weaponry for the first time ever. And I will quote no Scripture from the Holy Quran. Then I will speak to the American people directly, telling them what they must do to be secure from further attacks.

Zawahiri: Now you confuse me again. The Americans will not heed your warnings. They will just be fearful and angry. And all those changes in your appearance and speech. I think they will doubt it is you.

Osama: Precisely! People make bad decisions in anger. They will reject my call for peace and rally to support their Goatman. And those with the sharp eyes of skeptics will proclaim the video is a fake. They will say I am an actor hired by the Goatherder. And the angry supporters will turn their ridicule upon the doubters. They will call them ‘paranoid’ and ‘conspiracy theorists’. After discrediting the doubters, no one will be left to defeat our Goatman. He will continue to make our armies grow. We have grown from 2,000 to 20,000 in two years. Tenfold growth every two years will make us 2 million in four years!

Zawahiri: Oh Imam! This surpasses every plan that has come before! An army of two million will be larger than the armies of the Americans, Russians and Chinese combined! Surely Allah has been speaking to you to provide such a plan!

Osama: (snickering) C’mon Ayman, can all that Allah crap. You know me better than that. Actually, I intercepted an email the Goatherder Rove had sent to his actors. That first video will come from his flunkies. Then I will surprise him with mine. When he sees that I have copied his plan perfectly, they will be unable to expose me.

They will also know that my intelligence is better than theirs. They will get their Goatman elected, knowing full well that I remain two steps ahead. I will own their fear as well.

Zawahiri: And then?

Osama: Who knows? Maybe they will take down Iran or Syria. When they remove the corrupt leaders of all the most powerful Muslim societies, they will soon enough come begging us to lead them against the Goatman’s crusade. With the armies of Iraq and the technology and armies of Iran and Pakistan, even the Egyptians and House of Saud will be unable to stop us then.

We will control half the oil in the world. The economies of all the Western nations, China and Japan and India will be at our mercy.

Zawahiri: I cannot see a single flaw in your plan, Imam.

Osama: Well, actually, there is just one flaw, one variable, that is beyond my control.

Zawahiri: I cannot see it. Tell me what this is.

Osama: You know how the internets are. Some lowly blogger somewhere might see through enough of it to make a good guess. Then the Senator may get elected and we’ll be back at square one.

Oh well, that’s showbiz, I guess. Ayman! When will the flu epidemic begin?

Who do you trust to be the president of the most important country of this world? If this was a boxing match, it would go something like this:

In one corner we have the incumbent, George Bush, who didn’t actually win the previous championship match either. He is tended by Karl Rove (the man responsible for all the nails inside the gloves) and Dick Cheney (the man responsible for the wiring on George’s back which is right now hidden by George’s favorite “Pet Goat” towel). George is hopping up and down, holding his trunks from falling (they’re too big coz they have to be manly-looking), muttering to himself the short messages Dick has taught him to deliver.

In the other corner we have the challenger, John Kerry. He has a lot of boxing experience and training, and he has been a professional boxer all his career. But he has a rich wife. Poor John, will he be able to fight under this handicap against a man who only happens to have a rich daddy?

In the audience are the nations of this world, tensely waiting for the beginning of the match. In the audience lurks also Osama bin Laden who has put a few private bets in about the match. He kinda likes the look of George. Times have been good since George last pretended to win a match, and Osama has been resting and eating well. Why spoil anything now?

The judges are ready, too. They are a mixed lot, but Karl and Dick have managed to sneak in quite a few of George’s people, and they have been busy replacing the rule books with new automatic judges. Who knows how they are programmed? They are also keeping a beady eye on any other judges who seem to not understand that George is ordained to win this match.

Other referees are selected by the so-called liberal media. They’re people who really know the buttered side of their bread and they’re also eager to make much of this match, to keep it really even and to only let George’s hand be raised at the very end.

Most of the audience doesn’t know this. All they see is two guys talking and gesturing. Maybe they’re wondering who will win? Maybe they are going to decide who will win? Who knows?

Why do foreign stargazers hate Our Noble Leader?

…top Indian astrologers say the planets have clearly made up their mind: John Kerry will win. Planets governing President Bush are eclipsed and in an uncomfortable position, making his tenure controversial and his re-election bid unsuccessful, the soothsayers said….

On the other hand, the planets of Democratic challenger Senator John Kerry were in the ascendant, ensuring him success in competitions. “Saturn, which is the lord of health and fortune for President Bush, has been eclipsed by the Sun, which is unfortunate and gives him a clear defeat”….

Bejan Daruwalla, another top astrologer, told Reuters … Bush, even if he won, would not be allowed by his planets to complete a full term….

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From:
Grand Moff Texan, Daily Kos

I thought these were realistic headlines which we should be seeing at this most important time when America must decide who will preside over our nation:

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No Americans died from terrorist attacks today in America.

Eight Marines died in Iraq, however. I forget. What’s the latest reason for sending them there? I need to keep better track of the Official National Excuse.

Oh yeah, they’re looking for Saddam. I sure hope they find him soon, before he kills any more Iraqis.

-Lieutenant Col. Major General Veeblefinker
“Destroying the country to save the country”

Josh Marhall posted this one yesterday: At one of the Bush rallies in Florida the participants were expected to ” pledge allegiance” to George Bush:

“I want you to stand, raise your right hands,” and recite “the Bush Pledge,” said Florida state Sen. Ken Pruitt. The assembled mass of about 2,000 in this Treasure Coast town about an hour north of West Palm Beach dutifully rose, arms aloft, and repeated after Pruitt: “I care about freedom and liberty. I care about my family. I care about my country. Because I care, I promise to work hard to re-elect, re-elect George W. Bush as president of the United States.”

“Raise your right hand.” I wonder at what angle?

All joking aside, these kind of pledges and written loyalty oaths seem to be the new fashion among Bush supporters. Only those faithful enough may attend the events. This guarantees an almost total absence of critical voices, which may be very comfortable to the organizers but not a good way to learn what people really think. But then these people are not too keen on reality, anyway, given that reality is something the empire creates…

It turns out that Osama bin Laden is one of the undecided in this election. He doesn’t really care for Bush but he isn’t supporting Kerry, either. Will his message affect who is going to be the next president of the United States?

Let’s put it in simpler terms: Will Americans let a mass-murderer influence their election choices one way or the other? We shouldn’t even publish his babblings, never mind pay attention to them. But if you are interested in what the talking heads think, the Washington Post has a good article on all the speculation, and the Salon another one about what Kerry should do which is to remind us all “that the country we are carrying in our hearts are waiting”, and we need Kerry to get there. Never mind what George and Osama say.

A sign of these times: those that criticize the administration get punished. The most recent victim is the NAACP:

The Internal Revenue Service is investigating whether a speech by NAACP Chairman Julian Bond in July that criticized the Bush administration violated a federal law that prohibits tax-exempt charitable organizations from engaging in most forms of political activity.
Bond said he felt the probe was politically motivated and meant to have a chilling effect on the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, in particular its efforts to register black voters, who support U.S. Sen. John Kerry overwhelmingly.

The Internal Revenue Service, of course, is arguing that they’re just doing their job. But in the past only those nonprofits who have used money to actively advocate a particular political position have lost their tax-exempt status. This is something very different.

The NAACP fate is shared by many other organizations who have criticized the government or differed in opinion for the one sanctioned as governmentally correct. The measures which have taken against these rebels include auditing their accounts, sometimes several times in a few months, selective enforcement of laws and refusal of grants.

We can expect more of the same in the next four years. Unless we vote for Kerry, of course.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry moved into a one-point lead over President Bush three days before the presidential election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Saturday.

Kerry led Bush 47-46 percent, well within the margin of error, in the latest three-day national tracking poll. Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent on Friday.

I have little on Edwards, Cheney or Theresa, but this schedule ia absolutely wild:

Kerry today: Appleton, Wisconsin, then Des Moines, Iowa, then Warren, Ohio, then Detroit, Michigan

Bush today: Ashwaubenon, Wisconsin, then Grand Rapids, Michigan, then Minneapolis, Minnesota, then Florida

Also today: both candidates appear on “Sabado Gigante”

Clinton today: New Mexico

Daughters today: Vanessa Kerry, Cate Edwards, Caroline Kennedy Schlosberg, Karenna Gore, and Chelsea Clinton are expected to hit a three market Florida tour tomorrow on behalf of the Kerry-Edwards ticket. The women plan to touch down in Tampa, Orlando, and Ft. Lauderdale �€�Chelsea will speak

Yesterday: Alexandra Kerry & Al Gore to Hawaii, Teddy Kennedy, will hit the hustings in the state that helped give his brother the Presidency in 1960, campaigning in Montgomery, Logan, and Williamson, WV with Sens. Byrd and Rockefeller. (AT LAST! I’ve been calling for Teddy here, Wisconsin and Iowa, where his impact is HUGE)

Cheney Sunday: Hawaii

Clinton Sunday: his native Arkansas

Kerry Sunday: Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida

Bush Sunday: Florida, then Cincinatti, Ohio

Cheney Monday: Colorado Springs

Kerry Monday: Cleveland, Ohio

And from the Tastelessness Dept:

RNC mailer to several swing states

Ditto
____________

Meanwhile, the poll trends tell me the two states moving Bush’s way this week were MI and PA. But the two moving Kerry’s way were FL and OH. In fact, I think OH’s a done deal. If the two trade off those 4 biggest states like that, and NM and NH get traded, Kerry would lose 270-268. Despite some closeness elsewhere, due to the Incumbent’s Rule, I feel MN, HI, IA, WI are gonna break Kerry’s way. So CO could decide the race….

Bottom line: FL, PA, OH and MI are the four biggies and if either gets three of them, the race is over. If they split 2-2, the focus shifts to the lesser states. Also, I predict now that Bush will win the popular vote, and that won’t guarantee a win.

It certainly can’t be CBS. They’re site has 4 articles up under ‘opinions’. The first is from Tapped, Rudy’s Shameful Blame Game, about Rudy dissing the troops on Deathgate (Al Qaqaa). The second is from The Weekly Standard, Prepare For Four More Years, featuring the objective election predictions of Bush campaign senior strategist, Matthew Dowd.

The third’s from the NRO, Calling All Conservatives, a transparent GOTV appeal. And the fourth is NRO again, Behind Every Great Man…, a slash and burn piece trashing Theresa, from the cattiest of perspectives.

That’s your liberal media for you. Not one note of criticism about Bush or Cheney…

For the past week, I heard stories about missing explosives in Iraq, that did not get secured properly. The White House responses lasted shorter than a premature orgasm before fresh evidence came forth. Then more responses.

Round and round it went. Eventually, Bush settled on the claim that Kerry didn’t know what he was talking about.

But you forget, Mr. President. Kerry’s not in charge of war planning. It’s not his job as a Senator to issue orders to the generals who decide what the troops should do and report the results back.

There’s a chain of command. Afterward, if the guy at the top of that chain needs details about what happened and whether orders were carried out, the word gets passed down the chain and the answers are returned back up the chain.

That process should take a few hours at most. It shouldn’t take five days with multiple stories in between. And that’s what’s wrong about all of it. The leaders on the front are compelled to do improv, because the war plans at the top are incomplete. Answers about missing bunkers full of explosives should have arrived at the White House in the Spring of 2003. As you were notified about them before the war began, someone should have asked if they were handled way back then.

Instead, it took someone outside of government to raise the issue, for the media to publish it and for Senator Kerry to seek an explanation, before anyone did what should have been a routine followup.

Kerry wasn’t the guy with the responsibility to know all the answers. That’s the job of the Commander in Chief or his Defense Secretary. So now we have some idea about what happened to the explosives, it still leaves the most important questions unanswered. Why did you take us to war without proper planning? Why did it take 18 months to determine what did or didn’t get done? And when will you admit who’s responsible instead of blaming it on your critics who weren’t in the chain of command?

Update: Steve Gilliard has a few good questions about this and that, too. So does military expert Phil Carter.

And here’s one more, Mr. President. After seeing the new Bin Laden video, do you wish to retract these words?

March 13, 2002 White House Press Conference:

Bush: So I don’t know where he is. You know, I just don’t spend that much time on him , Kelly, to be honest with you. . .

Q: But don’t you believe that the threat that bin Laden posed won’t truly be eliminated until he is found either dead or alive?

Bush: Well, as I say, we haven’t heard much from him. And I wouldn’t necessarily say he’s at the center of any command structure. And, again, I don’t know where he is. I — I’ll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him.

Hey Osama! Stick this one in your VCR!

While the spin of political commenters left and right will take your last tape and declare this is proof that Bin Laden supports the other side, or that Bin Laden’s going to influence the election, I think there’s other factors FAR more important.

First, we are a free society. As a nation, we worked for it and fought for it and earned the freedoms we now enjoy.

Second, what is freedom, if it’s not about the rights to make decisions on our own? I do not want our government telling me how to decide important matters. I don’t want an employer to tell me, I don’t want a neighbor to tell me, I don’t want a foreign government to tell me. I’m a free adult and can make decisions on my own.

In making my decisions, the threat of losing my job, or getting locked up, or being threatened by my neighbor would be intimidation. Sorry, Bub, I have enough American in me to tell you where to stick it, if you’re going to infringe on my right to make up my own mind in my own sweet time.

In recent years, I’ve watched in amazement as people all over the political spectrum have told me I “gotta do this” or “gotta do that” or we’re all gonna suffer, or die, or be damned to hell. I call “bullshit.” I refuse to cower before anyone. I refuse to be herded in any direction based on fear.

So if I feel that way about my government, about bossy employers or intruding neighbors, why should I let myself be bullied by a two-bit thug, a mass murderer, a coward who sends others to die while he hides in caves? His opinions, his words, his criticisms, his threats deserve as much considerations as the droppings from a pig.

He doesn’t make me fear; he pisses me off. He doesn’t persuade me; his lies are too obvious. We endanger the security of Muslims? I could have sworn we tried to protect them from the Serbian government just a few short years ago. I’m sure several of our presidents have intervened when Israel’s leaders have gone overboard in their actions and reactions to Palestinians good or bad.

And what about the Jewish people, Osama? Do they not require the security you say the Muslim peoples want? It is not all one-sided aggression; the Israelis have legitimate grievances, too. And you - of all people! - disseminating your wisdom as an emissary of your ‘truths’ with so much blood on your hands, so much defiance of your own religion’s teachings. Your mutterings are like the yapping of a blind dog at the rustling of leaves.

I’m angry at you and I’m angry at those who harbor you. I’m angry that we spend more on the military than gets spent on the combined militaries of the rest of the globe, and the people in charge of our military, in charge of the men who can outfight your men any day of the week, won’t let our military loose to hunt you and your gangmembers down.

But the day will come. And when they come for you, I’ll bet you some of the members of our forces will include guys who voted for Kerry, guys who voted for Bush and guys who didn’t vote at all. Because, as a nation, we may respectfully disagree with each other on some things. But we’re united on others, like eliminating mad dogs who bite.

It has nothing to do with Muslims. It has everything to do with self-appointed egotists who think they speak for all Muslims when they speak only for a thimbleful of earth while the mountain range remains unmoved.

You’re a guy with a videocamera who hides where the rats hide, Osama. You will never taste freedom because you made your decisions.

We’re making ours now. Nobody asked for your opinion and anyone who thinks you possess any truth must surely be a fool.

But we’ll get back to you. In an uncertain world, you can count on that. Perhaps it’ll even be an American Muslim who takes you out. That’d be justice, for all the Muslims who’ve died directly from your hand. But whoever it is, we come for you and your gang because you’re criminals. And even the rats in your caves deserve better company.

(Al Jazeera, will you please deliver that to him?)

vaughn meader, the impressionist who probably begat two generations of bad political comedy, died today at the age of 68.

meader rose to stardom with his impression of jfk in the 60’s, and in fact created a series of comedy albums known as “the first family” which ushered in the whole concept of popular topical satire without salient points (ie, just for laughs, and what’s wrong with that?). the asspress:

when it came out in late 1962, poking gentle fun at jfk’s wealth, large family and “vigah,” “the first family” became the fastest-selling record of its time, racking up 7.5 million copies and winning the grammy for album of the year.

compared with today’s bare-knuckled political humor, the satire was tame, but it tickled the funnybone of the kennedy-obsessed public.

meader’s meteoric rise and fall in gerald nachman’s book “seriously funny: the rebel comedians of the 1950s and 1960s.” “one twist to the single-bullet theory that didn’t make it into the warren report: the same bullet that killed jfk also murdered vaughn meader’s career,” nachman wrote.

we at skippy international believe that every political impressionist, from john byner to dan ackroyd to jim morris to dana carvey to norm macdonald to bill hammond to will ferrell to that new squirrely guy on snl, and everybody who ever did an impersonation of a famous politician to make a fast buck at the toronto “ho ho’s” or whatever hole in the wall dive they played at, owe vaughn meader a debt of gratitude.

and if we were them, we’d take a moment of silence tonight to remember the guy who started it all.

Today, the election has been decided. Today, all has been made clear. The words of the world’s greatest terrorist have made it clear: we must re-elect the man who failed to catch him, so he may continue to let him roam free.

On a videotape today, Osama bin Laden spoke - and in doing, he committed an act of terrorism - terrorism of words. He didn’t just threaten America - he insulted America’s President. And if the American people vote their President out of office, they justify a terrorist criticism of George Bush. They make his lies the truth - and they waver before terror.

And the moment America wavers before terror is the moment Freedom itself will die.

Some of you may be saying, “Ah, but the fact that bin Laden is still alive is proof of the Bush administration’s failure in the war on terror - proof that we shouldn’t vote for him!” The Medium Lobster would laugh at your naivete - if this situation weren’t so deadly serious. For only George W. Bush has the pure, hard determination to stand up to terror. And only George W. Bush has the unswerving, unfailing incompetence to allow terror to spread so he can continue to stand up to it.

Listen to the words of the mass murderer, and re-elect the man who let him go. It’s your duty. It’s your destiny. Now and forever.

I’ve worked on dozens of campaigns. I even made a living at it for about 5 years. I loved it, but there isn’t a crazier business in the world.

I worked for Democrats in Utah. That means I know a hell of a lot about losing, although I’m rather proud of the fact that I won every campaign I managed. That leads to a lot of frustration and you have to let off a little steam every once in a while to stay sane. Some people do it by screaming a lot. I found relief by playing practical jokes on our opponents.

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jerome armstrong, over at mydd, does a fine job analyzing how the repubbbs got their come-uppance when they tried to challenge thousands of newly-registered democratic voters.

it seems the ohio gop sent the new voters registered mail, and when the voters refused to sign for it (as many did), the mail was returned. it was based upon that returned mail that the repubbbs filed challenges, on the premise that those new voters obviously didn’t “live” at those addresses, because they didn’t accept the mail.

well, the summit county board of elections not only threw out all these bogus challenges, they also intimated that the repubbbs who signed the false challenges could be brought up on felonly charges.

the summit county board of elections abruptly threw out 976 challenges of voter eligibility by the republican party today after barbara miller, the challenger, revealed that she did not have any personal information about the eligibility of any of the challenged voters.

instead, miller said that her challenges were based on a list of “undeliverable mail” given to her by the republican party. the list was based on a gop mailing sent to registered voters throughout the state of ohio.

after miller presented this as her evidence, russell pry, summit county election board member, told her that she could be indicted for signing a sworn challenge without any personal knowledge about the eligibility of the voters. miller’s reaction was to plead the fifth amendment.

jerome has the transcripts of the hearing. it’s wonderful to see a real world example of the old saw: cheaters never prosper!

From the crackpots over at Powerline.

The only open question, assuming there is a basis for the Drudge report, is whether the 200+ tons that were destroyed were the RDX, HMX and PETN that were the subject of the original story. There were vast quantities of explosives at Al Qaqaa, of which these materials were only a portion.

By the way, I finally viewed the KSTP video. It proves nothing whatsoever. It shows troops discovering some explosive materials which are clearly not the ones in question. Then it shows video footage of the outside of a building that has an IAEA seal on it. Next it shows someone peeking into the building through a ventilation shaft. The video says that the soldiers and the camera crew did not enter that building.

So the video is worthless. We already know that approximately one-half of the materials stored under seal disappeared before January 2003; that has been acknowledged by the IAEA. Whether the other half was still there is anybody’s guess. Without going inside, opening the containers, extracting the explosives and testing them, we know nothing about what was in the building at the time of the video.

Heh. I’m sure that deacon has a very impressive resume, but perhaps he should leave the weapons inspection up to the weapons inspectors.

BROWN: I don’t know how better to do this than to show you some pictures, have you explain to me what they are or are not, OK? First, I’ll just call it the seal and tell me if this is an IAEA seal on that bunker at that munitions dump.

KAY: Aaron, as about as certain as I can be looking at a picture, not physically holding it, which obviously I would have preferred to have been there, that’s an IAEA seal. I’ve never seen anything else in Iraq in about 15 years of being in Iraq and around Iraq that was other than an IAEA seal of that shape.

BROWN: And was there anything else at the facility that would have been under IAEA seal?

KAY: Absolutely nothing. It was he HMX, RDX, the two high explosives.

BROWN: OK. Now, I want to take a look at the barrels here for a second and you can tell me what they tell you. They obviously to us just show us a bunch of barrels. You’ll see it somewhat differently.

KAY: Well, it’s interesting. There were three foreign suppliers to Iraq of this explosive in the 1980s. One of them used barrels like this and inside the barrel is a bag. HMX is in powdered form because you actually use it to shape a spherical lens that is used to create the triggering device for nuclear weapons.

And, particularly on the videotape, which is actually better than the still photos, as the soldier dips into it that’s either HMX or RDX. I don’t know of anything else in al Qa Qaa that was in that form.

BROWN: Let me ask you then, David, the question I asked Jamie. In regard to the dispute about whether that stuff was there when the Americans arrived, is it game, set, match? Is that part of the argument now over?

KAY: Well, at least with regard to this one bunker and the film shows one seal, one bunker, one group of soldiers going through and there were others there that were sealed, with this one, I think it is game, set and match.

There was HMX, RDX in there. The seal was broken and quite frankly to me the most frightening thing is not only is the seal broken and the lock broken but the soldiers left after opening it up. I mean to rephrase the so-called (UNINTELLIGIBLE) rule if you open an arms bunker, you own it. You have to provide security.

I know it’s Halloween time and all, but deacon’s preemptive celebration of Satan is just making him look foolish. He should really stop.

Hollywood Director John Landis apologized Friday morning for what he called a �€œpractical joke on America �€“ gone mad. Landis admitted for the first time that the appointment of George W. Bush as President of the United States had been a �€œsilly bet�€� based on his 1983 film starring Eddie Murphy and Dan Akroyd called, Trading Places.

In the movie, a couple of venerable Philadelphia businessmen played by Don Ameche and Ralph Bellamy bet that they can reverse the fortunes of a black homeless man and an up and coming young conservative futures trader. A series of fortunes suddenly enriches the homeless man played by Murphy, and Akroyd suddenly finds himself out of his mansion and near prison. �€œThe movie was such a hit across America, that I made a bet with the producers of Being There that I could find a character similar to Chauncey Gardner and make him president of the United States.�€�

Being There is a film starring Peter Sellers about an empty-headed gardener whose employer suddenly dies and leaves him suddenly exceedingly popular for his simple platitudes. The plan took nearly two decades to put into place, but the Hollywood team found its starring character not far from the location where Being There was produced in Washington, DC. �€œHere was a thoroughly failed businessman from Texas snorting stuff in the backyard of the Vice Presidential Mansion. He was totally without intellect, curiosity or basic project management skills.
�€œHe was our man,�€� Landis said.
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we forward to you 2004’s scariest halloween costumes by the stranger.
we got it from our pal jillian at the daily cookie.

we especially like the little girl dressed as nancy reagan by the flag-draped coffin, though the “littlest abu ghraib prisoner” is cute, too.

[Excerpts from the classic Spanish novel El cruzado ingenuo Don Arbusto de Coahuila y Tejas:]

In a village of Coahuila y Tejas, the name of which I have no desire to call to mind, there lived not long since one of those gentlemen that keep a double-barrel in the gun-rack, an old Guard uniform, a customized SUV, and a Bluetick hound for coon hunting. …

You must know, then, that the above-named gentleman whenever he was at leisure (which was mostly all the year round) gave himself up to reading Tijuana bibles about The Crusades with such ardour and avidity that he almost entirely neglected the pursuit of his field-sports, and even the management of his property….
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A band comes out of retirement to honor its own George Harrison, as The Electras back their college days bass player: Big John.

Hockey player, skier, windsurfer, sailor, soldier, war protestor, prosecutor, Lieutenant Governor, Senator, bulldog investigator, and bass player. That’s quite a resume against 3-note George (mediocre businessman for a few years, 6 years as a mediocre Governor and 4 as a mediocre President).

Though they’ve resisted interviews till now, what drew the band out of retirement is their desire to help Kerry in any way they could.

“This is all about targeting young voters and winning electoral votes,” Prouty said Monday in his first interview about his Kerry schooldays. In true rock style, he was being shuttled between gigs in Washington D.C. and the Big Apple. Prouty has declined dozens of interview requests the past six months. “But this is a critical national election, and I have to subordinate my lack of public enthusiasm for being a quasi-public figure for the greater good of the country.”

Prouty thinks that if Kerry can stay within 2 points of Bush going into Tuesday’s election, young voters who have been left out of the polling may make the difference.

The Republicans have killed themselves with negative advertising. Washingtonians despise it, and backlash sympathy won our current AG candidate a victory in the primaries over an opponent considered to be a stronger candidate by those looking for the centrist vote. George Nethercutt, the Republican champion who defeated former House Speaker Tom Foley, failed to learn from this mistake. He was within 10 points of Sen. Patty Murray before running a scathing negative ad suggesting that Murray was soft on bin Laden. He’s dropped 10 points in the polls and the NRSC has pulled out by last accounts.

The Republican efforts have been centered around plastering a sign on every available surface/median/fence. Democrats have set records for people called, doors knocked on, etc., avoiding spending much of their money on signs until the very end. People are big on signs around here, but the most important thing will be which campaigns can get people out waving them at major intersections and onramps. Nothing says devotion to WA passersby like some maniac with a candidate sign (or several) in hand at an ungodly hour of a chilly November morning. We’ll see which strategy is more effective next week when it comes time to count the votes.

Regarding the 8th Congressional District, the candidates for both parties were the guys with the biggest name recognition. The Republican candidate, the sheriff who caught the Green River Killer, is running hard to the right in a district that the R’s were only able to hang on to because of Jennifer Dunn’s famously nuanced position on abortion. Also, because Washington voters like to vote for women, which shows up as a big factor in non-partisan races. Reichert doesn’t even believe in sex education, which he doesn’t think should get a penny of funding. The Democrat, Dave Ross, is a popular radio talk show host and veteran journalist with 80% name ID and a reputation as a centrist.

Interviews with the 8th and 5th district Democratic candidates can be found at King County Democrats, courtesy of me (8th) and Kayne McGladrey (5th).

Another consideration is the Dean base. WA sent the biggest Dean delegation in the country to the DNC, and many of the Deaniacs have taken on bigger roles in organizing and participating in the coordinated campaign, swelling the ranks as it were. You can still see the odd Dean sticker on a car, sometimes sitting comfortably next to a Kerry sticker. WA will be a major test of how much of any Dean effect might have carried through all the way to the election.

Natasha’s main blog site is at Pacific Views.

Her co-blogger, Magpie, wrote the handy Emergency Aid For U.S. Voters, which everyone should print out for use before, and during voting, if needed.

Greetings from West Virginia, home to America’s largest powerball winner, Jack Whitaker. Reports reveal our newest, celebrity resident Martha Stewart has fashioned some batches of jelly from the crab apples she picked from Alderson’s camp grounds. Meanwhile, Senator John Kerry’s campaign has decided that it will not air any television spots in West Virginia in the two weeks before November 2.

Although most polls give President Bush a slight lead over Kerry in West Virginia, the word on the street is the Kerry camp has given up the ghost on winning here. Bush has visited the state at least six times, and, last week, I couldn’t take my usual route home for lunch because the V.P. was eating his lunch near my office.

Back in the old days, when five measly, electoral votes didn’t decide our national election, and politicians promised only liquor for votes, a traffic jam in Charleston, West Virginia, usually meant a tractor-trailer crash on I-64. Now, it means either Dick or W.’s eating a cheese sandwich with some Republican cronies at The Grill. Ho-hum.

Although Kerry’s visited West Virginia several times, the outlook on his winning is bleak, and a local paper reported that his camp will now focus on more important swing states, like Ohio. Unemployment in West Virginia continues, but when I returned home from my mother’s home today (where I disposed of one dead bird, and a piece of black, plastic garbage bag that my mom had mistaken for a dead bat–but I digress), I passed a trailer home prominently displaying a Bush-Cheney sign. And that sums up the sentiment here, I think.

Maybe Kerry should have learned to make crab apple jelly.

Expressive Cynic blogs at Donut Buzz

(Update: now they plan to run ads after all.)

Like many New Mexicans, I’ve been willfully uninformed about this whole
‘touch-screen voting’ fiasco since I first heard of it.

For the last couple of years, every little touch-screen news-nugget that made its way into the sparklingly empty inbox of my brain has been swiftly relocated to the proverbial “round file” of my brain. This system has allowed me to focus my attention on more important matters, such as Everybody Loves Raymond reruns. This system has worked very well for me. Until today. Today I learned that some of the do-gooder early voters in Bernalillo County, New Mexico are having trouble with the touch-screen voting machines. Apparently when they vote for Kerry, the machine shows that they voted for Bush, and vice-versa. I don’t think it takes a genius to see that something pretty horrible is going on here. Even people who watch Everybody Loves Raymond can see that this could be a big problem.

Our county clerk, Mary Herrera, is blaming the problems on user error. “It’s the fault of voters,” the Albuquerque Journal reports her as saying. There’s a certain amount of old-fashioned country wisdom in those words, isn’t there? After all, in a democracy pretty much everything is supposed to be the fault of voters. But blaming touch-screen voting machine problems on user error is like blaming bad weather on the weatherman. Voting machines should be easier to operate than can openers or doorknobs. If people can’t understand how they work, it’s the fault of the machines, not the people.

One of the people who had problems with the voting machines was the
president of the Albuquerque City Council, Michael Cadigan. Cadigan told the Journal that he “voted for Kerry and a check mark for Bush appeared,” and that he had to get help to figure out how to alter his ballot. Herrera responded by saying that Cadigan could have “leaned his palm on the touch screen and it hit the wrong button.” Which sounds reasonable. Another reasonable-sounding explanation is that a bat flew down out of the rafters and while Cadigan was waving it off he accidentally hit the “Bush” button. Or maybe Cadigan was trying the old “vote with your elbows” trick. All sorts of crazy things can go wrong in the voting booth.

So what does this mean for the election in Bernalillo County then? Well, the first thing that pops into my mind is that all of these “undecideds” we keep hearing so much about won’t have to decide - the machines will decide for them. The second thing is that if any touch-screen voting fiasco news preempts any Everybody Loves Raymond reruns, I’m gonna be pissed.

Dagwood blogs at Metaquerque.

Take a look at what is being distributed around african american neighborhoods in Wisconsin (where, for the record, registration continues until up to 5:00 PM on the day before the election).

This is why GOTV matters (and you might want to support it, if you can)

but wait… there’s more!

apparently Voting While Hispanic is only OK in Miami

Ninety-five Hispanic voters in Atkinson County were summoned to a courthouse hearing Thursday to defend their right to vote after a complaint alleged a county commissioner attempted to register non-U.S. citizens.

Now a voting challenge that some call a political vendetta has forced 78 percent of the rural county’s registered Hispanics to defend their citizenship or their ballots won’t be counted in next week’s elections.

The American Civil Liberties Union has gotten involved because three local men who filed the complaint selected the voters by asking the Board of Registrars for a list of all Hispanics registered in the county.

“There’s a definite concern we have that this sort of action has the purpose or will have the effect of deterring people who are Hispanic from voting,” said Gerald Weber, legal director for the ACLU of Georgia. “Some of the folks on that list were born and raised in the United States.”

The complaint’s filers say they have evidence County Commissioner Jerry Metts attempted to help non-U.S. citizens register so they could vote for him in the July 20 Democratic primary. Metts won by 16 votes and faces no opposition in the general election Tuesday.

Linda Davis, chief registrar in Atkinson County, said she provided the men with a list of the 121 voters on the rolls who listed their race as Hispanic or Mexican. She said the men decided to challenge 95 of them.

“They asked for all Hispanics. They did not say just Hispanics who had registered for the election in July,” Davis said. “Some of these people have been registered since 1996.”

But then, as Our Fearless Leader recently pointed out, he believes self-governing american people are white.

His party certainly does seem to be acting on that assumption.

Want to know where the candidates think the race is close? Just look at their schedules and challenges. Here’s all the states in play:

WI: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel gives Kerry the endorsement. And a GOP challenge of 5,600 Milwaukee voters is rejected.

Schedules

Today: Kerry & Springsteen (Madison), Cheney (Schofield),Chris Heinz (Green Bay, Waukesha), Meg Ryan and RFK, Jr (Milwaukee)
Friday: Edwards & Bon Jovi (LaCrosse), Cheney (Eau Claire)
Saturday: Bush (Ashwaubenon)

——————

MN: Jesse Ventura rips Bush, Cheney. Unemployment jumped 20K last week instead of expected 6K. MN Supreme Court rejects GOP suit on election precinct judges. St. Cloud University poll: 49-42 Kerry

Schedules

Today: Kerry (Rochester, competing in GOP territory, due to good internal polling)
Saturday: Bush (location unknown to me)

——————

MI

Detroit News tracking poll today: 47-42 Kerry, Zogby today: 47-47

Schedules

Today: Bush (Saginaw)
Friday: Edwards (Muskegon), Cheney (Lansing)
Saturday: Bush (Grand Rapids)
Kerry plans a return to Detroit over the weekend, but details unknown.

——————

IA

Schedules

Today: Edwards & Bon Jovi (Indianola, Davenport), Cheney (Sioux City)

——————

HI

DNC starts running ads; Clinton does satellite interviews from his home. Concern being shown now.

——————

PA: Quinnipiac Poll today: 49-47 Bush. Zogby today: 49-46 Kerry. Howard Dean and Hilary campaigned here yesterday. So did Zell Miller. And disenfranchisement games are active here.

Schedules

Today: Bush (Lancaster, Bucks County), Treasury Sec. John Snow, Rudy Giuliani (Wilkes-Barre), Dean (Wilkes-Barre)
Friday: Joe Biden (Wilkes-Barre)
Saturday: Cheney, Toomey and Specter (Northampton County)

——————

OH: About 5,000 registration challenges remain but GOP promises to make more on Election Day. Update: Another thousand challenges tossed, Dems call for criminal investigation, challenged voters really really pissed off. Now GOP is taking it to the 6th US Court of Appeals.

Schedules

Today: Bush & Sammy Kershaw (Westlake)

——————

FL: Backing Bush while disagreeing with every Bush domestic issue, Ed Koch plans to back Hilary in 2008.

WEST PALM BEACH �€” The mad push to register new voters in what is expected to be one of the closest presidential elections in history has increased the voter rolls by almost 40,000 in Palm Beach County.

In the final two months before the registration books closed, Democrats out-registered Republicans 16,618 to 9,131. Voters choosing no party or a minor party totaled 13,378, according to a Palm Beach Post analysis comparing the number of new voter registrations from Aug. 4 to Oct. 4, 2004.

Also: disenfranchisementb wars continue.

Schedules

Today: Laura Bush (St. Augustine, Sarasota, Port Ste. Lucie), Women on the Move (Ann Lewis, Kirsten Dunst, Carol Browner, Diana Kerry, Ashley Judd, etc: West Palm Beach)
Friday: Kerry (South Florida)
Saturday: Neal Boortz, Oliver North, Ralph Reed (Orlando)

——————

NH

Schedules

Today: Vanessa Kerry (Kingston, Dover, Durham), Rudy Giuliani (Laconia, Bedford)
Friday: Bush & Curt Schilling (Manchester, Portsmouth)
Sunday: Kerry (Manchester), Red Sox co-owner Tom Werner (Nashua, for Kerry)

——————

NM

Schedules

Today: Bush 41 w/granddaughters Jenna & Barbara (Los Alamos)
Saturday: Clinton (Santa Fe)
Sunday: Clinton (Albuquerque)

——————

NV

Schedules

Today: Madeleine Albright (Las Vegas)

Albright has been campaigning for presidential candidate John Kerry with a group that includes former top generals, a U.S. Marine who served recently in Iraq, and Rep. Jane Harman, D-Calif., the highest-ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee.

——————

Elsewhere: Besides NM, Clinton will campaign this weekend in NV and AR, and ads are going to run by the DNC and MoveOn in WV, AR and HI, though both sides think HI is safe.

And there’s more federal poll watchers, but most not in swing states. And here’s the latest GOP vote disenfranchisement list of where the action is.

As the Al Qa Qaa fiasco continues to unfold, it appears as though White House spinsters are continuing to manipulate the viewing public, and our brave media is holding their hand on the journey. News after news show refers to the missing explosives as a dispute, even though IAEA officials had secured the materials at the site just a week before the Shock n’ Awe campaign commenced, relying instead on the word of Pentagon spokesman Larry di Rita. Unsurprisingly, Mr. di Rita has a hobby of sending out talking points to his underlings. Essentially, it is believed by the ostriges that the weapons had been dispersed prior to the invasion, and thus not a sign of utter incompetence.

Question: Al Qa Qaa was one of the most well-known weapons facilities in Iraq, and the IAEA had specifically marked the highly explosive materials appropriately, which obviously means that U.S. intelligence agencies had redundant surveillance of the area in question. Why then, if incompetence is not the culprit, have these images not been declassified and shown to the public? It is not as though 40 dump trucks could emerge from such a high-profile weapons site without attracting some attention. Right?

Until then, I guess we will rely on images from alternate sources.

Using GPS technology and talking with members of the 101st Airborne Division, 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS has determined the crew embedded with the troops may have been on the southern edge of the Al Qaqaa installation, where the ammunition disappeared. The news crew was based just south of Al Qaqaa, and drove two or three miles north of there with soldiers on April 18, 2003.

During that trip, members of the 101st Airborne Division showed the 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS news crew bunker after bunker of material labelled “explosives.” Usually it took just the snap of a bolt cutter to get into the bunkers and see the material identified by the 101st as detonation cords.

“We can stick it in those and make some good bombs.” a soldier told our crew.

There were what appeared to be fuses for bombs. They also found bags of material men from the 101st couldn’t identify, but box after box was clearly marked “explosive.”

In one bunker, there were boxes marked with the name “Al Qaqaa”, the munitions plant where tons of explosives allegedly went missing.

Once the doors to the bunkers were opened, they weren’t secured. They were left open when the 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS crew and the military went back to their base.

Watch the video. Just to make sure that these are the same ones that were inspected by the IAEA:

So, who to blame? Being the Truman-inspired American citizen that I am, I would look to the president or one of his higher level cabinet appointees. Of course, Abu Ghraib showed us all that these individuals are too valuable to the mission, and cannot be compromised; we must set our sights lower. Rudy Giuliani, realizing that his magnificence during 9/11 was not up to par with his high standards, helps us out.

The president was cautious the president was prudent the president did what a commander in chief should do. No matter how you try to blame it on the president the actual responsibility for it really would be for the troops that were there. Did they search carefully enough? Didn’t they search carefully enough?

Apparently, America’s finest are not fine enough for Big Boss man:

Juan Cole has the news in Deathgate: a TV crew’s film is being analyzed to see if Al-Qaqaa’s death-dealing contents were still there when troops arrived.

So you think you got what it takes to be a wonk? You think you’re smarter than John Zogby? You think you’d just like to cash in on a free prize? Have I got the game for you: the Electoral College Challenge! Based on a long history of poor predictions, I am boldly asserting not only a Kerry win, but a decisive one. Having cleverly identified Dean as the victor in Iowa, I believe I’ve proven my skill with reading the American people. My people.

Think you can do better than a feebleheaded blogger? Bring it on!

The prize: a copy of Jon Stewart’s America (the Book): A Citizen’s Guide to Democracy Inaction, paid for by me, mailed to you.

The game: Predict the number of electors George Bush and John Kerry will win.

The rules:
1.) You must identify the exact total. I’m generous in a cheapskate kind of way. If no one wins, you can try to lobby me if you’re the closest. Flattery a plus, but you never know.

2.) You must not be too paranoid to send me your address, otherwise I can’t send you the book.

3.) You cannot select a total already selected (which is an incentive to reserve your number today!). Numbers already taken:

311-227 (me)
330-208 (Donna)
278-260 (Goat Boy)
269-269 (Mark, going with the jackpot of electoral chaos)

How to play: Go to this handy electoral calculator and click on the states you think the candidates will win. Note the tally, listed below, and dart back here to record your entry. I’ll accept the first entry in case of duplicates. All selections valid until 8am November 2.

Good Luck!

Update: More numbers off limits (all predicting a Kerry victory):
328-201 (eRobin, betting on the Colorado split)
336-202 (Alex)
331-207 (Thane, making me do the math)
326-212 (Stellans)
325-213 (Fred V.)
321-217 (Folkbum)
320-218 (Sasha)
315-223 (Flory)
313-224 (Josh, predicting a loose WV vote)
308-230 (Alabama Yankee)
307-231 (Richard K)
306-232 (Carli)
305-233 (Deborah B.)
300-238 (Dave, another Colorado splitter)
298-240 (Space)
297-241 (Rainey)
289-249 (Kenneth C.)
287-251 (Andy)
288-250 (Kevin H.)
284-253-1 (Yami, winning on creativity)
283-255 (D. Knezek)
280-258 (Adam D.)
279-258-1 (Shari)
277-261 (Henry)
271-267 (Rodger, going with a squeaker)

Via email, the lone Bush victory prediction:
311-227 (Iggi)

With today’s polls:

- Zogby shows Bush lost a point in the tracking poll, so now all polsters are showing Kerry momo. 48-46 Bush now, but that’s a 3 day average.

- OH, Kerry 46-45, so the Incumbent Rule (IR) makes it look more and more like Kerry

- NM, Bush 48-44, so it looks very doubtful for Kerry.

-PA, 49-46, so looking good for Kerry, 1 pt to clinch.

-MN, 47-44 Kerry, so the IR looks great for Kerry here, too.

-WI, woo-hoo! Kerry, 50-46 ! Best news of the day! Along with…

-CO, 50-46 for Kerry!

-IA, 45-45 tie. IR should go Kerry’s way. Too close to call.

-MI, 47-47 tie. Worst news. IR should help, but the unemployment rate here should not have let this one back in the race.

-FL, 48-46 Bush. With the IR, this works out to a dead heat.

Bush has 50% or better in NV, AZ, AR, NC, VA.

Overall, it looks like Kerry will gain CO (9), OH (20) and NH (4), for 33 pts. Losing NM’s 5, leaves a net advantage of 28, which would produce a 288-250 win.

If he loses MI, that brings it to a 271-267 Kerry win. Losing IA and MI produces a 274-264 Bush win.

Today suggests OH, IA and MI are the battlegrounds, as is FL. But let’s not overlook the fact that, if Bush keeps FL and gains MI, then one of two tiny states that the big pollsters haven’t been updating on - NH or HI - could still turn it Bush’s way.

If Kerry and Bush get through election night with a 267-267 split, wouldn’t it be a bitch to lose the race ….. in Hawaii?

Addendum - From electoral-vote.com: “Stupidity news: One of Kerry’s electors in Ohio, Rep. Sherrod Brown, is a congressman. Unfortunately, the constitution forbids federal office holders from being electors. It is possible that if Kerry wins Ohio, Brown’s right to cast an electoral vote will be challenged in court. Whoever picked a constitutionally ineligible elector needs to get his or her mental software ungraded to the latest release.”

I set up a donation page at the Majority Makers site over at the DCCC.

I’ve sort of adopted the Northeast slate of candidates personally, just because it’s always annoyed me that the Northeast, which is forever getting screwed by national Republicans, keeps sending “moderate” Republicans to Washington who vote pretty much exactly the same way as the immoderate Republicans once they get there.

Hell, even if they weren’t reliable supporters of Hastert and DeLay, their party affiliation gives a slim majority to national Republicans who take enormous pleasure sending a disproportionate share of our tax dollars to red states.

Enough already. First we need to clean up the House. Then, if they’re interested in being players in the Northeast, Republican “moderates” can do a little housecleaning of their own.

It’s a few dollars or a day or two out of your life. You can spare them better than you can spare what you stand to lose if these people get back in.

Also I’d really appreciate it.

Thanks.

“He can run, but he can’t hide from this pitch! The Cardinals won last night! Am I not still on the mound? And I’ll stay on this mound until the job is done. My opponent, you see him up to bat, then you see him grab a glove and run out to the outfield, back and forth, flipping and flopping! Where do you stand, Mr. Kerry? Saw him put ketchup on his ballpark frank too, heh, heh. You see, Kerry wants us to live in a time when the Curse of the Bambino is just a ‘nuisance.’ The curse is real my friends, and unless you keep me on this mound, we’ll all feel the curse!”

Drudge has his front page smeared with rantings about a blame-the-Russians Washington Times piece. John A. “Jack” Shaw, deputy undersecretary for international technology security is quoted as having “reliable information ” that Russia is behind the 342 tons of missing explosives from al Qaqaa.

Since trust is an important factor in this campaign season, you should know that John Shaw is not the poster child for trust. After disguising himself as an employee of Halliburton Co, Shaw urged government officials to fix the alleged problems he found when he got access to a port in southern Iraq, directing multimillion-dollar contracts to companies linked to his friends, without competitive bidding. According to an LA Times story of July 6, 2004, Shaw has also tried to steer a contract to create an emergency phone network for Iraq’s security forces to a company whose board of directors included a friend and one of Shaw’s employees. The inspector general’s office has turned over an inquiry into Shaw’s actions to the FBI.

Knowing that Shaw used the rebuilding effort in Iraq to reward associates and/or political allies makes him less than a credible source, especially in the last week of the presidential campaign season. I think Shaw is doing it again. The way I see it, he could well be lying once again, while trying to secure a great job for one of his cronies. This time it’s George W. Bush.

Read the rest of this entry »

Nobody in Ohio, Michigan, Oregon, Pennsylvania, or Colorado needs to be reminded how bad their unemployment rates and wages have become in the past four years. That alone is likely to cost Bush the election, which is why he had to try for NM, WI, IA and MN so hard.

But for the war on terror, Bush’s biggest poll strength, he let Osama escape, he refused to take out al-Zarqawi when the military had him in their sights, he’s never even caught the anthrax mailer right here in our country. And rather than providing safety from bioterror like anthrax, his poor planning has made millions of Americans vulnerable to the flu.

Kerry’s offering the best affordable healthcare plan that any major candidate has ever advanced. Bush’s plan is to limit damage awards for people hurt by negligent doctors.

And Bush’s plan for Iraq is attack, attack, attack, kill, kill, kill. The looting of Al Qaqaa lays bare the lack of commonsense plans that could have spared thousands of killed and wounded.

Failing the war on terror, failing in his Iraq war planning, exposing thousands of soldiers to greater danger and millions of Americans to greater disease, while millions more lost their affordable healthcare: these are the core reasons to remind Americans to vote for a fresh start with a new leader.

The undecideds are trending to Kerry now. And the only way Karl Rove can reverse it requires the long-rumored October Surprise to occur today or tomorrow. Does he plan to stoop low enough to try that?

As we begin the final descent to Election Day, Corey Anderson reminds us that the Master of Descent may have more descent coming.

Through the help of supporters, the Band of Sisters has gained a private plane they’ll use this week to follow one guy on the campaign trail, confronting him everywhere he speaks.

Good intelligence and enough manpower could have saved a lot of lives in Iraq, by eliminating Al-Qaqaa and other weapons depots. Instead, intelligence and poorly trained manpower created the most explosive event that has ever been tied to the name of America, that damaged America, and made me feel real shame.

The moment I saw those pictures, I began writing Congressional reps insisting the President had to apologize. Several days later, he finally did - the sole time I can recall him admitting anything under his watch was ever done wrong.

Two years later, we still need more manpower to try and help Iraq. As for good intelligence, well, I voted for that two days ago.

In 1964, LBJ got the majority. Clinton did in ‘92 but wasn’t even close in ‘96. And it looks like Kerry will be the third since 1940, that’s 64 years.

That also should debunk the myth of the ‘liberal’ media, as I’m talking about the times a Democratic candidate gets a majority of the nation’s newspaper endorsements. Though Eric Boehlert of Salon defines it better.

I’ve lost track, but at least 36 papers that endorsed Bush in 2000 have switched to back Kerry. And only 4 or 6 papers backing Gore last time have switched to Bush. The Denver Post was in that latter group, but an analysis of their endorsement makes it very confusing, because it knocks Bush a ton and has mostly kind words for Kerry.

It’s heartening to hear the Denver Post got 700 letters about that switch and EVERY SINGLE ONE knocked their choice.

Read the rest of this entry »

From a new Alternet interview:

I’m one of those people who believes that Bush really did go to war to free the Middle East and turn these nations into democracies. I don’t think he went to war for oil primarily or Israel. He went because he has this idee fixe that it was his mission, his crusade to change the Middle East �€“ to turn it into a democratic stronghold of good, well-meaning people who would buy American and support Israel against the Palestinians and keep the oil flowing.

It’s idealistic. It’s utopian. Is there anything more dangerous than an ideologue who doesn’t know he’s wrong?

Now, one of the things I’ve heard from people who found themselves supporting the war is that whether the UN went in or not, the fact is that there was a moral imperative. That Saddam was doing terrible things to his people and suppressing the Shi’ites, violating human rights and so on.

The only problem with that thinking is that it’s been more than a year and a half since we went in. And right now, the abuses in the prisons, the bombings, and the attacks, the violence in the country are now being caused by us. Is that a moral position we want to be in? Of course, it is an unintended consequence, but it is still very much a consequence.

If Bush wins re-election, he will bomb and bomb and bomb. He’s been doing that steadily every since the Allawi government was put in place by us. Since June 28, the bombing has gone up exponentially. Bombing, bombing, bombing. Civilian targets, civilian neighborhoods.

But I don’t see anyone in the press worrying about it. I don’t see them demanding to know how many sorties we’re flying �€“ have they grown? Are more bombs being dropped? What’s the tonnage? We don’t know any of that, do we?

And it closes with the money quote:

Q: The right wing was never very happy with the so-called “liberal” media. But now liberals �€“ and not just the far left but moderate liberals �€“ have lost faith in these same outlets. So what does that mean for the future? And how do they begin to win back the trust?

Just as long as it’s going to take the United States �€“ many more years than you want to believe �€“ to win back the trust of the people in the Middle East. They are reeling from Abu Ghraib �€“ it was stunning to them. They really did view us as preternaturally sexually perverse people.

In terms of the press … [sighs] I can’t even begin to tell you what we have to do. I think time will heal things, like it always does �€“ if we get a couple of years of no war and some prosperity between us. But in the short term, no one is going to believe the press very much any more. Just like no one is going to believe the United States if we start screaming about nuclear weapons some place. So I think we’re in real trouble.

I hope it comes out the right way in the election. If it doesn’t then we’re all in trouble. The Europeans so far give us a pass on the grounds that, well, you’ve got these crazy leaders and they do crazy things. But if we re-elect them, then it’s not just the president they’re mad at. They’re going to be mad at all of us.

A Florida Marine due to ship out got enraged when his girlfriend said she was leaving him to vote for John Kerry. So he held her captive, threatening to stab her in the neck with a screwdriver.

I guess this means he’ll be reassigned to be a pollwatcher in Broward County, huh?

The rude pundit seems to like John Kerry as much as I do.

Bush’s own words proved the point Kerry’s making.

From all the fresh excuses explanations put forth by the Bush lie boys administration about how they effed up bigtime the explosives disappeared at Al Qaqaa, I gotta say, I’m pretty impressed.

It took them two years to put out this many versions of why we invaded Iraq, so they’ve really picked up the pace.

Bush, of course, hoisted himself on his own petard with these words:

See, our military is now investigating a number of possible scenarios, including this one — that explosives may have been moved before our troops even arrived, even arrived at the site. The investigation is important and ongoing. And a political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not the person you want as the Commander-in-Chief.

John Kerry’s been saying Bush “went to war without a plan to win the peace.” And when this news broke, he’s been saying it’s another example of them operating without proper planning, even though the IAEA specifically warned them to watch these explosives. Bush’s defense, that he’s waiting till the matter is fully investigated - 18 months after the fact - is an admission they didn’t have it in their plans, or they’d already know what happened.

Thank you, Mr. Bush, for proving Senator Kerry’s point. Now will you apologize to the families of the troops whose lives were lost because of his bungle?