Electoral College Challenge
So you think you got what it takes to be a wonk? You think you’re smarter than John Zogby? You think you’d just like to cash in on a free prize? Have I got the game for you: the Electoral College Challenge! Based on a long history of poor predictions, I am boldly asserting not only a Kerry win, but a decisive one. Having cleverly identified Dean as the victor in Iowa, I believe I’ve proven my skill with reading the American people. My people.
Think you can do better than a feebleheaded blogger? Bring it on!
The prize: a copy of Jon Stewart’s America (the Book): A Citizen’s Guide to Democracy Inaction, paid for by me, mailed to you.
The game: Predict the number of electors George Bush and John Kerry will win.
The rules:
1.) You must identify the exact total. I’m generous in a cheapskate kind of way. If no one wins, you can try to lobby me if you’re the closest. Flattery a plus, but you never know.
2.) You must not be too paranoid to send me your address, otherwise I can’t send you the book.
3.) You cannot select a total already selected (which is an incentive to reserve your number today!). Numbers already taken:
311-227 (me)
330-208 (Donna)
278-260 (Goat Boy)
269-269 (Mark, going with the jackpot of electoral chaos)
How to play: Go to this handy electoral calculator and click on the states you think the candidates will win. Note the tally, listed below, and dart back here to record your entry. I’ll accept the first entry in case of duplicates. All selections valid until 8am November 2.
Good Luck!
Update: More numbers off limits (all predicting a Kerry victory):
328-201 (eRobin, betting on the Colorado split)
336-202 (Alex)
331-207 (Thane, making me do the math)
326-212 (Stellans)
325-213 (Fred V.)
321-217 (Folkbum)
320-218 (Sasha)
315-223 (Flory)
313-224 (Josh, predicting a loose WV vote)
308-230 (Alabama Yankee)
307-231 (Richard K)
306-232 (Carli)
305-233 (Deborah B.)
300-238 (Dave, another Colorado splitter)
298-240 (Space)
297-241 (Rainey)
289-249 (Kenneth C.)
287-251 (Andy)
288-250 (Kevin H.)
284-253-1 (Yami, winning on creativity)
283-255 (D. Knezek)
280-258 (Adam D.)
279-258-1 (Shari)
277-261 (Henry)
271-267 (Rodger, going with a squeaker)
Via email, the lone Bush victory prediction:
311-227 (Iggi)
October 28th, 2004 at 11:57 am
After the last two days of news I’d love to change mine to 353-185 Kerry but I’ll stick with what I have.
You think I’m kidding? Poll accuracy will be the BIGGEST story of this election.
October 28th, 2004 at 12:07 pm
Kerry 308
Bush 230
October 28th, 2004 at 12:20 pm
Kerry 305
Bush 233
October 28th, 2004 at 12:28 pm
Kerry 306, Bush 232.
October 28th, 2004 at 12:29 pm
I’m on record in a couple of places at 321-217. May as well play here, too.
October 28th, 2004 at 12:29 pm
315-223 Kerry
October 28th, 2004 at 12:31 pm
Kerry 325, Bush 213
October 28th, 2004 at 12:32 pm
320-218. Watch Nevada go blue.
October 28th, 2004 at 12:33 pm
oh, sorry, that’s Kerry 320 Bush 218
October 28th, 2004 at 12:55 pm
Kerry 336
Bush 202
October 28th, 2004 at 12:59 pm
Kerry 289
Bush 249
You can see my rationale here.
October 28th, 2004 at 1:07 pm
Kerry 280
Bush 258
October 28th, 2004 at 1:10 pm
Kerry 283 Bush 255
October 28th, 2004 at 1:24 pm
I am logging some other http://wematter.blogspot.com/2004/10/prediction.html> predictions , linking to this challenge as well as pointing to Trading sites — If you see any others of interest please feel free to add them as comments.
October 28th, 2004 at 1:58 pm
Kerry 328
BushCo 201
Colorado splits their votes 5 to Kerry, 4 to BushCo
October 28th, 2004 at 1:59 pm
Kerry 316
Bush 181
October 28th, 2004 at 2:00 pm
My personal estimate is also 320 Kerry. My second is 325 Kerry with a shift of either NV or WV. They are both taken. Grrr…
So I’m going to say One of those two + AR flip - Kerry 331. I see someone else has the same thoughts - they have all three flipping for 336.
October 28th, 2004 at 2:04 pm
eek! I forgot to turn some yellow states red; my real guess is:
Kerry 326
Bush 212
October 28th, 2004 at 2:07 pm
Kerry 284, Bush 253, Cheney 1
Go faithless elector go!
October 28th, 2004 at 2:07 pm
Electoral vote Kerry 307 GW 231
October 28th, 2004 at 2:10 pm
Kerry: 300
Bush: 238
Colorado Splt 5/4
October 28th, 2004 at 2:14 pm
Cause for Optimism
It’s always nice to read about how the left is getting its act together: Those liberal organizations that already knew…
October 28th, 2004 at 2:16 pm
Kerry 297/Bush 241
October 28th, 2004 at 3:11 pm
518 Kerry 20 aWol (Alabama, W Virginia, Wyoming)and that’s giving the Chimpster the benefit of the doubt on WV
October 28th, 2004 at 3:39 pm
Um, what if I’m still smarter, but I don’t want to guess?
Plus, one should try to be wiser than Michael Barone, smarter than Larry Sabato, and better connected than Brian Lamb.
Zogby simply knows polls. Hmmph
October 28th, 2004 at 3:41 pm
But I decided, since 313 wasn’t taken…
313 Kerry - 224 Bush -(1 elector from WV not voting for Kerry or Bush)
October 28th, 2004 at 4:22 pm
288-250 for Kerry
October 28th, 2004 at 4:50 pm
If mine’s wrong, Flory’s 315-223 looks good. So does Folkbum’s 321-217. Stellan’s 326-212 is the highest I see Kerry possibly doing, and it would be stunning to achieve that.
If I get a second guess, it’s 287-250 due to Sherrod Brown possibly being disqualified as an elector.
October 28th, 2004 at 5:29 pm
Kerry 277
Bush 261
Although Kerry may win big, I feel that more people our voting on party lines and not on America.
October 28th, 2004 at 6:55 pm
Kerry 279
Bush 258
Other 1
October 28th, 2004 at 8:17 pm
K: 298
B: 240
October 29th, 2004 at 7:37 am
Kerry 271
Bush 267
I hope it is a bigger margin than this and think there’s a realistic chance.
Bush may lose 1 unfaithful voter in WV.
October 29th, 2004 at 8:52 am
Kerry:287
Bush:251
October 29th, 2004 at 9:44 am
Kerry 271
Bush 240
October 30th, 2004 at 4:10 pm
Kerry 331/ Bush 179
October 30th, 2004 at 4:10 pm
Kerry 331/ Bush 179
October 31st, 2004 at 6:13 pm
Kerry: 286
Bush: 252