This is a Reuters’ story. I note that, over the months I’ve been following this story, the tone has moved from concerned but detached to downright alarmed. By the way, I have yet to see a story on this in the major US dailies. Americans are being kept in the dark about this threat.

Flu Pandemic Inevitable, Plans Needed Urgently -WHO

Fri Nov 26, 7:24 AM ET

By Vissuta Pothong

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Every country in the world must come up urgently with a plan to deal with an inevitable influenza pandemic likely to be triggered by the bird flu virus that hit Asia this year, a top global health expert said on Friday.

“I believe we are closer now to a pandemic than at any time in recent years,” said Shigeru Omi, regional director for the Western Region of the World Health Organization (news - web sites) (WHO).

“No country will be spared once it becomes a pandemic,” he told a news conference.

“History has taught us that influenza pandemics occur on a regular cycle, with one appearing every 20 to 30 years. On this basis, the next one is overdue,” he said at a conference of 13 Asian health ministers trying to figure out how to avoid one.

“We believe a pandemic is highly likely unless intensified international efforts are made to take control of the situation,” he said of the H5N1 avian flu virus, which has defied efforts to eradicate it in several Asian countries, including Thailand.

The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 and 1919 killed upwards of 20 million people and WHO experts say the next could infect up to 30 percent of the world’s more than 6 billion people and kill up to 7 million of them.

Omi said that to stave that off, the world would have to cooperate closely by sharing information promptly and openly on the virus — such as how it spreads, why it hits children more easily than adults and how quickly it is mutating.

This is very sloppy reporting. First, the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 killed 50 million people. The population of the planet was a fraction of what it is now, about 1.8 billion. The lethality (mortality) rate of the 1918 virus was between 2-5%. By contrast, 75% of the people who have contracted this year’s Avian virus (that can be identified, always a sketch business this early) have died. That’s a stunning rate. The 1918 pandemic did it’s lethal business in a mere 8 weeks. Given how much more mobile the world is now, it is chilling to contemplate how much damage this year’s bug could do in next to no time.

What the article doesn’t make clear (among a number of things that it doesn’t make clear) is that the none of these scary scenarios come to pass until the virus has mutated to become transmissable between humans. As far as we know right now, that fatal mutation has not occurred. However, influenza virii are known for their mutability and adaptability. H5N1, this year’s variation, demonstrates that it has this disposition, having been found already in pigs and tigers in addition to waterfowl and chickens. Should the mutation occur, and none of the other characteristics of the disease as it now exists be altered by the mutation, it would be out of control very quickly and impossible to stop.

The Reuters writer, then, took at face value the 7 million deaths from a possible Avian flu pandemic from the “expert” with which he spoke. In 1918, more than half of the world’s population was infected by the flu. Actual numbers of deaths by this Avian flu would be catastrophic. So, the tone of this article, while a little hysterical, actually understates the amount of danger that this potential represents.

In earlier bulletins, WHO was already calling for public health authorities all over the world to begin to prepare for vaccinating their entire populations. If this bug is as bad as it looks, that’s not an outrageous demand. Unfortunately, the earliest estimate for the vaccine to begin to be available is March, and I think that even if we put all of the vaccine makers in the world to the task of manufacturing it, we’ll have a little difficulty cranking out 5 billion doses in time to do a lot of good.

Right now, our defensive strategy is to hope that the mutation doesn’t occur before we are ready for it. I’m not liking those odds.