Whenever President Bush, Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, or any other Bush administration official, or flack, claims that setting a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq is a bad idea…make them explain WHY in detail.
Force them to provide a logical explanation for why it’s a bad idea.
As many of you know, I’ve been an advocate for setting a specific timetable for withdrawal. I believe it is not only beneficial politically to advocate this position, but it is also smarter from a military and strategic standpoint.
See my posts, here and here, for my thoughts previously expounded.
It is no longer enough for the Bush administration to say that setting a timetable is bad, just because they say so. Nor can they claim, in my view, that it would simply allow the insurgents to “wait us out,” and attack when we leave.
There are a number of serious logical fallacies associated with this argument. Not the least of which is the enormous military and strategic value of splitting the nationalist insurgents from the jihadists. [See this post of mine for more details on that issue.
Apparently, nationalist insurgents are willing to give the United States as long as FIVE YEARS to withdraw its forces from Iraq, in exchange for a ceasefire.
That’s even longer than I would have insisted upon. I believe a 24 month timetable is feasible. But, heck, if the Iraqi nationalist insurgents are willing to tack on an extra three years, I’d be willing to accept it provided we get some cooperation from them on stabilizing Iraq, and taking out the Jihadsts.
The “they’ll just wait us out” rationale also fails logic 101 for another reason. If, in fact, the insurgents dial down their attacks for, say, 2-3 years while we draw down our forces, that will in and of itself have a temendous positive effect on the Iraqi economy, and will improve popular support for the current Iraqi Gvt.
Violence will be down significantly. Commerce will pick up. Fear will dissipate, and Iraqis will get more and more comfortable with domestic tranquility. It will be akin to the ceasfires in Northen Ireland, which got the people in Belfast and elsewhere used to PEACE!
Now, it’s almost impossible for the IRA or the Unionist brigades to start up the violence again without a major public backlash. Their support would dry up.
I think the same would be true in Iraq. The population there currently has a fatalistic view of violence. They don’t like it, but they feel there’s not much they can do about it. So, they just kind of live with it. They don’t really have a peaceful frame of reference to compare it to.
If you give them one, they will not respond kindly to a resumption of violence.
The corrolary to this point is that the insurgents will somehow keep up the pace of their attacks for the entire drawdown period.
But, this obvuoiusly disproves the argument that the insurgents will “wait us out,” They are already attacking US and Iraqi forces with everything they can muster.
I suspect, however, that even without cutting a deal, the nationalist Iraqi insurgents will find it hard to stay motivated if they know we are going to leave by a date certain.
What’s the point of continuing their attacks?
The residual anti-US sentiment in Iraq proving aid and comfort for the nationalists will dissipate if we say we’re going to leave.
Finally, it may be possible to announce a US troops withdrawal timetable, in conjunction with a UN mandated replacement force (a la Kosovo) drawn from other nations. Maybe even from the Arab league.
I don’t thnk this last scenario shows much promise, quite frankly. But it is an option.
All in all, I think Iraq may wind up being more like Algeria than Switzerland when all is said and done.
And that is probably about as much as one could expect at this point.
IMPORTANT UPDATE: Iraqi Prime Minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari said today that:
“[T]wo years will be enough, and more than enough, to establish security in our country . . . .”
Let’s see. We now have the Iraqi Prime Minister saying that two years (my preferred timetable) is “more than enough” time to etsablish security in Iraq. [Outside of the United States, of course. Where that little tidbit doesn’t fit Bush’s propaganda plans].
And we have the nationalist Iraqi insurgents saying they’d accept a timetable that was as long as FIVE years to withdraw all of our forces.
If the Democrats don’t jump on this like a horny teenage boy on a spread-eagled, naked and willing Jessica Simpson…they are the BIGGEST MORONS ON EARTH!