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September 25, 2005

Puzzling over theory

Echoed on the Panda's Thumb

On Saturday, I gave a talk to the Minnesota Atheists on a bit of the evidence for evolutionary history. In one part of the talk, I gave an analogy for what biologists do, and I thought I’d expand on it a little bit here.

A theory is a powerful thing, a tool for interpreting observations and experiments, and the way to assess the utility of a theory is to examine how well it explains the available facts, whether it suggests new experiments and leads to new insights, and whether it contradicts any of the evidence. What we do with a theory like evolution is use it to interpret and assemble what we see into a coherent whole. The process is like assembling a jigsaw puzzle.

puzzle

This, for instance, would be a single datum; an observation, like the discovery of a fossil hominid, or an experiment, such as a genetic perturbation of a Hox gene. It’s the building block of our work. On a day to day basis, what scientists do is gather these little pieces of the puzzle; to a point, this can be done without any reference to a unifying theory. In isolation, they are often cryptic and esoteric, and honestly, the lay public has reason to be baffled about why we poke around with such odd things. Certain creationists of limited imagination, like Phil Skell, try to argue that the fact that a scientist can run a gel or dig up a bone without giving evolution a thought means that evolution is superfluous.

puzzle

Think about what you do with a single puzzle piece, though: the next step is to go looking for a second piece, one that fits with it. In a typical jigsaw puzzle, you make inferences that you test. For instance, you may assume that it’s a landscape, so blue pieces will be part of the sky, green pieces might be part of the trees or grass, etc., and we test those hypotheses by searching for pieces that correspond in color or texture to our first. The final test, of course, is to see whether two pieces actually fit together.

We repeat this process over and over. After a fair amount of progress, you usually have a general idea of what you’re putting together. The way everything fits together, the general rules we see working (such as pieces that fit together well, and that we see sensible patterns emerging as assembly progresses) represent the theory. If none of the pieces fit, we’d have to announce that our theory of the jigsaw-puzzleness of the pieces was false. If there was no similarity in the texture or color of adjacent pieces, we say the theory of landscapeness was false. If we get to the point where our puzzle looks like this…

puzzle

…we’d feel very comfortable with the idea that these assorted strangely shaped pieces of cardboard were part of a puzzle, and that once they are put together we’ll have a photograph of some part of the world. It’s nowhere near complete, but the big picture is coming into focus nicely. We keep plugging away at it, and we continue to make progress, so the theory is satisfying and unchallenged.

Of course, this analogy isn’t perfect. We’d need a much more complicated puzzle, one that my daughter would balk at putting together, and it would also have to be unbounded. Evolution is one of the biggest, most complex puzzles humanity has ever faced.

Where do creationists come into this story? They’re kibitzers. They’re the annoying people who stand around and claim that there’s no way this puzzle can be finished. Who reach in and pluck out random pieces and try to hammer them together. Who ignore the completed work and point to the gaps and tell you what goes there (and it has nothing at all to do with the developing theme of the image). They are unproductive nuisances.

Intelligent Design creationists are particularly aggravating. They pick up isolated pieces and declare that it doesn’t fit anywhere in the puzzle—that it is anomalous and doesn’t relate to any other piece. The scientist’s response, of course, is to snatch it back and rummage around and find another piece with which it interlocks, but that doesn’t stop the IDist. He just picks up another piece and repeats his assertion. They don’t bother to explain where they think their purportedly anomalous piece belongs, either…it’s enough that they declare without cause that it doesn’t belong.

Without the theory to tie disparate pieces together, this is all we have:

puzzle

That’s biology without the theory of evolution: the facts are all there, but they are fractured and disorganized. We reject that, not just because it is esthetically unsatisfactory, but because it requires that we consciously neglect unambiguous connections—it demands a willful blindness. That’s a trait common in creationists, but it is the antithesis of scientific thinking, where insight and the ability to find connections are valued.

(Thanks to Skatje for the puzzle construction!)

(crossposted to Pharyngula)

4 Responses to “Puzzling over theory”

  1. David Model Says:

    Those who believe in Intelligent design begin with a conclusion based on faith and then offer explanations to support the conclusion. The explanations are not based on a rational process but on evidence consistent with their faith.

    Scientific investigation begins with a hypothesis based on observations. The hypothesis is then tested to confirm or disprove the hypothesis. The results are peer reviewed and then repeatedly tested. If the hypothesis is valid, the subsequent tests will confirm the original results

    There is no rational procedure for confirming Intelligent design other than claiming that it is based on faith. Of course, proponents of ID don’t explain it in those terms but in the final analysis, all they have is faith.

    The problem with teaching ID is that it is treated on the same terms as evolution. Rather than teaching skepticism and the scientific method we are encouraging students to believe that faith and knowledge are just different ways of knowing. There is nothing wrong with believing something on the basis of faith but these beliefs should not be confused with knowledge.

  2. Henry Schlatman Says:

    The problem I have with creationists, evolutionists, and those who want to quote Intellectgent Design is that none of them directly explain how their theory handles adaptation of the Human body. Is it not true that if you live in space for a very long time your body adapts to weightlessness? If you dive deep into water your body’s lings grow larger.

    No, scientific thinking on how Man or anything comes to exist must first look at why it consumes for that is the only way that we first come to know it exists. A rock consumes the space where it seats, a Human must breath, drink, and eat to exist, even our universe, itself, must consume the darkness of space to exist. So my question is simple to the religous and scientific community. “Who created this great experiement we call Life that makes everything known to consume?” And why is it that no one wants to talk about that?

  3. Raenelle Says:

    To extend your excellent analogy just a bit–ID devotees are like the person who knows in advance what the puzzle will reveal, then uses scissors to try to get the pieces to fit.

    What I tell my students (I teach history, and I get the opportunity to talk about science when we discuss old school economists who relied on deduction rather than induction, and of couse when we hit Scopes) . . . Anyway what I tell my students is that scientists are not saying that God didn’t create whatever. That may or may not be true. But science is above all else a method for finding truth–a method that is inductive, empirical, deferring to facts. The problem with God in a scientific theory isn’t its untruth; the problem is that the concept of God makes mush out of the method. The concept of God is too powerful–it can be used to prove anything, and a scientific theory must be, at least in theory, disprovable. With a valid scientific theory, one which defers to facts, you have to be able to imagine a set of facts which, if true, would disprove your theory. With God, you can’t do that. The presence of God in a theory means that anything can be explained. There’s no ability to correct, tweak, overturn. It turns the method to mush–is its negation.

  4. Error 404 Says:

    Raenelle, that’s exactly it: Science doesn’t reject God, it just requires that scientists do it the hard way.

    And it isn’t unique in that: accountants (for example) act under the same restriction. An accountant cannot report that God decrees that a certain set of books is balanced, the accountant has to do it the hard way.

    In fact, accountants are even stricter about it than scientists. If God were to miraculously create 50 pounds of gold in my living room tonight, a scientist would insist that there must be an explanation that we just don’t know yet, but he’d let me keep the gold. If God were to do the same thing to my bank account, accountants would deny the very existance of God’s gift to me and prevent me from using or keeping it.