Midterms Tipping Point
I have long been a skeptic about the Dems’ shot in the midterms. For one, because I keep predicting Americans will wake, Van Winkle like, from their 20 year stupor–even while they happily doze on. But also, for all the reasons so far well-documented: gerrymandering, the paucity of competitive seats, the poor traction Dems have so far gotten despite GOP corruption, graft, and incompetence.
But I may now be persuaded, because that old leveler has come into play: gas prices
At the pumps here, the oil companies may have been the most commonly cited target of consumer ire, but not the only one.
Many said they blamed the government and car manufacturers for failing to develop alternative sources of energy — particularly after the oil crisis in the 1970s.
Last week, Pew released findings of a study that found Americans pretty angry about incumbents. The findings aren’t yet definitive, but they’re promising (all the more for being conducted before the most recent gas price spike):
The public’s strong appetite for change in Washington is seen both in the majority of voters who say they would like to see most members of Congress defeated in November (53%), and in the sizable minority who wants to see their representative turned out in the midterms (28%). Both measures reflect anti-incumbent sentiment not seen since late in the historic 1994 campaign, just before Republicans gained control of Congress. In recent elections, far fewer voters evinced a desire for change; in October 2002, just 38% said they did not want to see most members reelected and 19% said that about their own representative.
So: it could be good news, but I’ve been fooled by these kinds of signs before. Anyone care to lay down a prediction? If things stay the same, improve, or worsen? If we’re not at the tipping point yet, what will it take? It’s only April, so we’ve got a long way to go. Still…
April 27th, 2006 at 11:57 pm
The cynic in me says the Iran sabre-rattling is a DELIBERATE attempt to spike the oil prices, that just above $3.50/gal is where we’re really going to peak, and that the annual retreat from the peak that takes place usually from June-Dec will soothe a lot of people from the anger they feal today. So if we go from $3.50 to, say, $2.35, Bush will say “see we saved you!” and people would fall for that.
However, I’ve concluded that, despite that, and based on his record, Bush will do enough OTHER dumb shit that he’ll squander away even that, despite the Rovian Spin. So yeah, I predict we’ll take back the House, or rather, it’ll be returned to us by the cops (Fitz & Spitzer) after they’ve stripped it of all its fixtures, including the crying towel dispensers.