There’s no better place to see the heights of the coming Democratic Wave of 2006 than the gubernatorial races. They’re on track to win 27, and could easily run that as high as 32. Though these don’t draw the attention that the Congressional and Senate races do, governor races make a significant impact in several ways.
They can influence redistricting efforts and voting reform efforts. They can veto bad legislation, which will be critical if we lose one more moderate Supreme Court Justice, as that could move contentious issues like abortion back to the states. And the greatest pool of future Presidential candidates has historically been drawn from governorships.
Safe R incumbents: previously was California, Idaho, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Texas, Connecticut, Nebraska, and Vermont. I’m adding Rhode Island, though fresh polls could refute this; the old are stale. And in a late surprise, I’m moving Idaho all the way to Tossup.
Safe D incumbents: previously included Wyoming, Arizona, New Mexico, Illinois,Tennessee, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Kansas, and New Hampshire. I’m adding Oregon, Maine, and Michigan to this list. (Michigan’s difference is not as large as I like, but Granholm has ranged from 54% to 48% in the last 4 polls so it’s next to impossible for DeVos to win, despite 7% remaining undecided.)
D definite pickups: Arkansas, Ohio, Massachusetts, Colorado, New York.
Which makes the gubernatorial breakdown: 25D-17R and 8 too close to call.
Likely D:
Maryland, 500 likely voters, 10/26, 50%D - 47%R -2% U
Iowa, 500 LV, 10/19, 49%D - 45%R - 4%U
Tossups:
Alaska, 500 LV, 10/28, 45%R - 44%D - 7%U
Minnesota, 500 LV, 10/25, 45%D -44%R - 9% Others - 2%U
5:30 am MN update: Big shift against R: 663 LV, 10-23-28, 45%D - 39%R - 9%O - 7%U, and the internals look bad for the R.
Wisconsin, 800 LV, 10/27-29, 47%D - 45%R - 8%U
Idaho, 625 LV, last week, 44%R - 43%D - 1%Other - 11% U
Leaning R:
Nevada, 600 LV, 10/23-25, 47%R - 41%D - 2%Others - 4% None of the Above
Likely R:
Florida, 500 LV, 10/26, 52%R - 41%R - 7%U
Analysis: Out of all the Democratic incumbents, only one has yet to clinch: Jim Doyle of Wisconsin, though in the last 3 polls of likely voters, he’s led by an average of 2.3% of likely voters. Trend lines of both candidates have been horizontal for more than two weeks. The most recent ended Sunday and had him leading 47%-45% with 8% undecided and a MOE of +/- 3
Without last minute surprises, Culver and O’Malley are likely to win in Iowa and Maryland, respectively. In Florida, Davis looks set to lose to Crist. Nevada needs a fresh poll to determine if the late-breaking Gibbons scandals can do him in. A Mormon who drinks, escorts a drunken lady to drive a motor vehicle, flirted with her, possibly assaulted her, possibly tried to bribe and threaten her and who also employed an illegal alien, at times making her hide in the basement: in most states, he’d be toast.
Best Projection as of 10/30: The Dems are likely to gain at least 27 spots and the GOP is likely to hold on to a minimum of 18. Just AK, ID, MN, NV, and WI remain too close to call.
Election Night Watchlist: In order of poll closing times, watch for possible reversals in FL and MD first (8 pm close EST). In the second wave, look for possible reversals in RI and MI, and also look for tossup outcomes in MN and WI (9 pm close EST). In the third wave, look for tossup outcomes in IA and NV (10 pm close EST). In the fourth wave, look for a possible reversal in OR, and the tossup outcome in ID (11 pm close EST). The final tossup will be AK (1 am close EST).
Previous Posts in this series: 2006: Topical Depression or Levee Breaker? v. 1