Reference Item: Dan Gillmor’s Election Day Law FAQ covers all the legal issues you may encounter while voting or poll-watching, in all states. (Thanks to Josh Marshall for that)

More important voter resources.

And if they steal this one, this is where the citizen revolutions begin.

We’ll keep this posted on top during election night coverage. You’re invited to add info in the comments. I won’t try to post too many interim numbers till they’re close to or have a projected winner.

In order of the closing times, these are a comprehensive list of the known competitive races, across the nation. All Senate and Governor races are reported, competitive or not.

Though some states are split into two time zones, exit polling may be reported by the media at the earlier of the two times. Times shown are Pacific Standard Time.

The Democrat will always be listed first in every race. Candidate names in italics represent my pre-election projected winner, which is best described as ‘Likely D or R’. Asterisks denote incumbents.

Selected amendments, propositions, initiatives, measures, questions and referendums are also shown, based on what I consider will draw the most interest, or have been reported as controversial.

When the media or I decide to project a winner, I’ll color the name red for Republican winners and blue for Democratic winners. Those colors pre-election on (mostly) Senate or Governor races mean they’re already certain winners. For Senate races, I include projected final numbers, based on previous analysis completed November 4th (Saturday) plus any quality fresh polls since. [TCTC] means Too Close To Call, and [NP] means a win is Not a Pickup, but a held seat where the incumbent is leaving.

You ought to be able to figure out the rest. An overall analysis, with my majority takeover projections follows these listings.

INDIANA
SEN- no candidate vs Lugar*
CD-2 Donnelly vs Chocola* (4 pm)
CD-3 Hayhurst vs Souder*
CD-6 Welsh vs Pence* [no polls]
CD-7 Carson* vs Dickerson [TCTC]
CD-8 Ellsworth vs Hostettler* (4 pm), PICKUP
CD-9 Hill vs Sodrel* [leans D]

KENTUCKY
CD-1 Barlow vs Whitfield*
CD-2 Weaver vs Lewis* (4 pm)
CD-3 Yarmuth vs Northup* PICKUP
CD-4 Lucas vs Davis* [TCTC]
CD-5 Stepp vs Rogers* [TCTC]

FLORIDA
GOV- Davis vs Crist
SEN- Nelson* vs Harris
CD-8 Stuart vs Keller*
CD-9 Busansky vs Bilirakis
CD-13 Jennings vs Buchanan [leans D]
CD-16 Mahoney vs Negron(Foley) [leans D]
CD-22 Klein vs Shaw* [leans D]
CD-24 Curtis vs Feeney* [leans D]

Am6- Up homestead tax exemption, low-income seniors. Yes No
Am7- Reduce homestead tax, disabled vets. Yes No
Am8- Restrict eminent domain, private projects. Yes No

GEORGIA
GOV- Taylor vs Perdue*
CD-8 Marshall* vs Collins
CD-12 Barrow* vs Burns [leans R]

Am1- Restrict eminent domain, private projects. Yes No

NEW HAMPSHIRE
GOV- Lynch* vs Coburn
CD-1 Shea-Porter vs Bradley
CD-2 Hodes vs Bass* [leans D]

Am1- Restrict eminent domain, private projects. Yes No

SOUTH CAROLINA
GOV- Moore vs Sanford*
CD-5 Spratt* vs Norman

Am1- Defines marriage as heterosexual, monogamous. Yes No
Am4- Property tax growth limit. Yes No
Am5- Prohibit eminent domain, private projects. Yes No

VERMONT
GOV- Parker vs Douglas*
SEN- Sanders (I-D) vs Tarrant
CD-AtLg Welch vs Rainville [NP]

VIRGINIA
SEN- Webb vs Allen [TCTC- Webb by 2]
CD-2 Kellam vs Drake*[leans R]
CD-10 Feder vs Wolf* [TCTC one poll]

Quest1 - Defines marriage as heterosexual, monogamous. Yes No

NORTH CAROLINA
CD-5 Sharpe vs Foxx* [no polls]
CD-8 Kissell vs Hayes* [leans D]
CD-11 Shuler vs Taylor*PICKUP
CD-13 Miller* vs Robinson

OHIO
GOV- Strickland vs Blackwell, PICKUP
SoS- Brunner vs Hartmann
SEN- Brown vs DeWine*, PICKUP
CD-1 Cranley vs Chabot* [leans D]
CD-2 Wulsin vs Schmidt* [leans D]
CD-4 Siferd vs Jordan
CD-5 Weirauch vs Gillmor* [TCTC]
CD-6 Wilson vs Blasdel [NP]
CD-8 Meier vs Boehner*
CD-12 Shamansky vs Tiberi* [TCTC]
CD-13 Sutton vs Foltin [NP]
CD-14 Katz vs LaTourette* [leans R - upset favorite]
CD-15 Kilroy vs Pryce*
CD-18 Space vs Padgett PICKUP

Iss2- Raise minimum wage, index to inflation. Yes No
Iss3- Slot machines w/profits to college scholarships. Yes No

WEST VIRGINIA
SEN- Byrd* vs Raese
CD-1 Mollohan* vs Wakim
CD-2

ALABAMA
GOV- Baxley vs Riley*

CONNECTICUT
GOV- DeStefano vs Rell*
SEN- LaMont vs Lieberman* [8 pts]
CD-2 Courtney vs Simmons* [leans D]
CD-4 Farrell vs Shays* [TCTC]
CD-5 Murphy vs Johnson*

DELAWARE
SEN- Carper* vs Ting

ILLINOIS
GOV- Blagojevich* vs Topinka
CD-6 Duckworth vs Roskam* [leans D]
CD-8 Bean* vs McSweeney
CD-10 Seals vs Kirk* [leans D]
CD-14 Laesch vs Hastert*
CD-17 Hare vs Zinga [NP]

KANSAS
GOV- Sebelius* vs Barnett
CD-2 Boyda vs Ryun* [TCTC]

MAINE
GOV- Baldacci* vs Woodcock(R) vs Merrill(I) vs LaMarche(G)
SEN- Bright vs Snowe*

Quest1: Tax & spend limits (TABOR). Yes No

MARYLAND
GOV- O’Malley vs Ehrlich*, [leans D]
SEN- Cardin vs Steele, [leans D] [3 pts]
CD-3 Sarbanes vs White [NP]
CD-6 Duck vs Bartlett*

Quest4 - Approve or repeal election law changes. Yes No

MASSACHUSETTS
GOV- Patrick vs Healey, PICKUP
SEN- Kennedy* vs Chase

Prop3- Collective bargaining w/state for home daycare providers. Yes No

MICHIGAN
GOV- Granholm* vs DeVos
SoS- Sabaugh vs Land*
SEN- Stabenow* vs Bouchard
CD-7 Renier vs Walberg*
CD-8 Marcinkowski vs Rogers*
CD-9 Skinner vs Knollenberg* [TCTC]
CD-11 Trupiano vs McCotter* [TCTC]

Prop2- Outlaw affirmative action, state universities. Yes No
Prop4- Restrict eminent domain, private projects. Yes No

MISSISSIPPI
SEN- Fleming vs Lott*

MISSOURI
SEN- McCaskill vs Talent [4 pts]

Am2- Allow stem cell research. Yes No
PropB- Raise minimum wage, index to inflation. Yes No

NEW JERSEY
SEN- Menendez vs Kean [7 pts]
CD-5 Aronsohn vs Garrett
CD-7 Stender vs Ferguson* [TCTC]

PubQuest1: Dedicate state revenues to lower property taxes. Yes No

OKLAHOMA
GOV- Henry* vs Istook

PENNSYLVANIA
GOV- Rendell* vs Swann
SEN- Casey vs Santorum, PICKUP
CD-4 Altmire vs Hart*
CD-6 L. Murphy vs Gerlach* PICKUP
CD-7 Sestak vs Weldon* PICKUP
CD-8 P. Murphy vs Fitzpatrick* [leans D]
CD-10 Carney vs Sherwood* PICKUP

Bond- $20m for payments to first Gulf War vets. Yes No

SOUTH DAKOTA
GOV- Billion vs Rounds*

AmC- Defines marriage as heterosexual, monogamous. Yes No
AmD- Limit property tax increases. Yes No
Meas4- Permit medicinal marijuana. Yes No
Meas7- Repeal video lottery. Yes No
ReferredLaw6- Repeal abortion ban. Yes No

TENNESSEE
GOV- Bredesen* vs Bryson
SEN- Ford vs Corker [5 pt]
CD-7 Morrison vs Blackburn* [no polls]
CD-9 Cohen vs White(R) vs Ford(I) [no poll, no call]

Am1- Defines marriage as heterosexual, monogamous. Yes No
Am2- Property tax relief for seniors. Yes No

TEXAS
GOV- Bell vs Perry* vs Strayhorn(I) vs Friedman(I)
SEN- Radnofsky vs Hutchison
CD-6 Harris vs Barton [no pick*]
CD-14 Sklar vs Paul [no pick*]
CD-17 Edwards* vs Taylor [NP]
CD-21 Courage vs Smith [no pick*]
CD-22 Lampson vs Sekula-Gibbs [leans D]
CD-23 Rodriguez, others vs Bonilla [no pick*]
CD-31 Harrell vs Carter [no pick*]
CD-32 Pryor vs Sessions [no pick*]
(* = with redistricting and most analysis, these are mostly longshots, except #17 and #22. So these are the only races I didn’t research well in the entire nation)

ARKANSAS
GOV- Beebe vs Hutchinson PICKUP

ARIZONA
GOV- Napolitano* vs Munsil
SEN- Pederson vs Kyl [7 pt]
CD-1 Simon vs Renzi* [leans D]
CD-5 Mitchell vs Hayworth* [leans D]
CD-8 Giffords vs Graf PICKUP

Prop100- Conditional ban of bail for illegal immigrants. Yes No
Prop101- Lower local property tax limits. Yes No
Prop102- Ban Punitive damages in lawsuits by illegal immigrants. Yes No
Prop103- Makes English official language. Yes No
Prop-107- Defines marriage as heterosexual, monogamous. Yes No
Prop200- Gives $1m to a random voter general elections. Yes No
Prop202- Raise minimum wage, index to inflation. Yes No
Prop207- Prohibit eminent domain for private projects, compensate others. Yes No
Prop300- Prohibit subsidized education, childcare for illegal aliens. Yes No
Prop302- Increase legislator salaries. Yes No

COLORADO
GOV- Ritter vs Beauprez PICKUP
SoS- Gordon vs Coffman [TCTC]
CD-4 Paccione vs Musgrave* [leans D]
CD-5 Fawcett vs Lamborn*
CD-6 Winter vs Tancredo* [TCTC- no polls]
CD-7 Perlmutter vs O’Donnell PICKUP

Am38- Expands citizen initiative rights. Yes No
Am41- Prohibitions on gifts, lobbying by ex-legislators. Yes No
Am42- Raise minimum wage, index to inflation. Yes No
Am43- Defines marriage as heterosexual, monogamous. Yes No
Am44- Legalize possession, 1 oz marijuana. Yes No
Ref H- Prohibit business tax deductions for wages paid to illegal immigrants. Yes No
Ref I- Establish domestic partnership rights to same-sex couples. Yes No
Ref K- Direct Atty Gen’l to sue feds to enforce immigration laws. Yes No

LOUISIANA
CD-2 Nine Dems vs Lavigne (open primary, runoff possible)
CD-3 Melancon* vs Romero

Meas 7- Combines 7 New Orleans tax assessors into one office. Yes No

MINNESOTA
GOV- Hatch vs Pawlenty*, [leans D]
SoS- Ritchie vs Kiffmeyer* [TCTC]
SEN- Klobuchar vs Kennedy
CD-1 Walz vs Gutknecht* [TCTC]
CD-2 Rowley vs Kline* [upset fave]
CD-6 Wetterling vs Bachmann*

NEBRASKA
GOV- Hahn vs Heineman*
SEN- Nelson* vs Ricketts
CD-1 Moul vs Fortenberry* [TCTC]
CD-2 Esch vs Terry* [leans R, no poll]
CD-3 Kleeb vs Smith [TCTC-momo D]

Meas421- Allow limited use of video keno machines. Yes No
Meas423- Limits state spending growth to population growth plus inflation (TABOR). Yes No

NEW MEXICO
GOV- Richardson* vs Dendahl
SEN- Bingaman* vs McCulloch
SoS- Herrera vs Perea [leans D]
CD-1 Madrid vs Wilson* [leans D]

NEW YORK
GOV- Spitzer vs Faso PICKUP
SEN- Clinton vs Spencer
CD-3 Mejias vs King*
CD-19 Hall vs Kelly* [lean D]
CD-20 Gillibrand vs Sweeney*
CD-24 Acuri vs Meier PICKUP
CD-25 Maffei vs Walsh* [leans D]
CD-26 Davis vs Reynolds* [leans R]
CD-29 Massa vs Kuhl* PICKUP

RHODE ISLAND
GOV- Fogarty vs Carcieri*
SEN- Whitehouse vs Chafee, [5 pt]

Quest1: Constitutional amendment to permit privately run casino. Yes No

WISCONSIN
GOV- Doyle* vs Green
SEN- Kohl* vs Lorge
CD-8 Kagen vs Gard* [lean D]

Am- Gay marriage Yes No
AdvisoryMeas- Reinstate death penalty. Yes No

WYOMING
GOV-Freudenthal* vs Hunkins
SEN- Groutage vs Thomas*
CD-AtLg Trauner vs Cubin* [leans R]

IDAHO
GOV- Brady vs Otter, [TCTC]
CD-1 Grant vs Sali [leans D- near pickup]

Prop1- Add 1% to sales tax, dedicate to K-12 education. Yes No
Prop2- Restrict eminent domain for private projects, compensate others. Yes No
HJR2- Defines marriage as heterosexual, monogamous. Yes No

IOWA
GOV- Culver vs Nussle
SoS- Mauro vs Hanusa
CD-1 Braley vs Whalen PICKUP
CD-2 Loebsack vs Leach [TCTC]
CD-3 Boswell* vs Lamberti [NP]
CD-4 Spencer vs Latham*

MONTANA
SEN- Tester vs Burns* [4 pts]

I 151- Raise minimum wage, index to inflation. Yes No
I 153- Prohibit lobbying for 2 years by ex-lawmakers. Yes No

NEVADA
GOV- Titus vs Gibbons* [leans D]
SoS- Miller vs Tarkanian [TCTC]
SEN- Ensign vs Carter
CD-2 Derby vs Heller [leans R]
CD-3 Hafen vs Porter* [leans R]

Quest2- Restrict eminent domain for private projects. Yes No
Quest6- Raise minimum wage, index to inflation. Yes No
Quest7- Legalize possession, 1 oz marijuana. Yes No
Quest11- Double legislators’ pay. Yes No

NORTH DAKOTA
SEN- Conrad* vs Grotberg

InitiatedConstAm 2- Prohibit eminent domain for private projects. Yes No
InitiatedStatuMeas 3- Requires joint custody of children post-divorce. Yes No

OREGON
GOV- Kulongoski* vs Saxton

Meas39- Restrict eminent domain for private projects. Yes No
Meas41- Increase state income tax deduction to federal level. Yes No
Meas42- Prohibit use of credit scores for insurance premium calculations. Yes No
Meas43- Adds waiting period, parental notification for abortions by minors. Yes No
Meas45- Restores term limits. Yes No
Meas46- Constitutional amendment to permit campaign contribution, spending limits. Yes No
Meas47- Companion to 46, defines limits of individuals, bans union and corporate contributions. Yes No
Meas48- Limits spending growth to inflation plus population growth (TABOR). Yes No

UTAH
SEN- Ashdown vs Hatch*

CALIFORNIA
GOV- Angelides vs Schwarzenegger*
SEN- Feinstein* vs Mountjoy
CD-3 Durston vs Lundgren* [no polls, no pick]
CD-4 Brown vs Doolittle*
CD-11 McNerney vs Pombo*
CD-45 Roth vs Bono* [no polls, no pick]
CD-50 Busby vs Bilbray*

Prop85- Adds waiting period, parental notification for abortions by minors. Yes No
Prop87- Tax energy company profits, spend $4 billion on alt. energy research. Yes No
Prop89- Provide public funding to candidates agreeing to spending limits. Yes No
Prop90- Restrict eminent domain, private projects; compensate others. Yes No

HAWAII
GOV- Iwase vs Lingle*
SEN- Akaka* vs Thielen
CD-2 Hirono vs Hogue [NP]

WASHINGTON
SEN- Cantwell* vs McGavick
CD-5 Goldmark vs McMorris*
CD-8 Burner vs Reichert* [TCTC]

I 920- Repeal estate tax. Yes No
I 933- Compensation for eminent domain takings. Yes No
I 937- Requires utilities to use set minimum levels of renewable fuels. Yes No

ALASKA
GOV- Knowles vs Palin

Init- Tax natural gas leases. Yes No

Final Pre-election Updates & Summary

House:

The picks above show I lean towards a certain Dem majority in the House. My analysis says that outside of the error margins, and considering momentum for either side, a minimum of 12 are definite and 6 are likely. And there’s ony two Dem seats in jeopardy, so 16 is the minimum pickups, enough to win the House.

FYI, the only two D House seats that appear at risk are Barrow (GA-12) and Carson (IN-7), so if we lose them, we lose them early this eve.

Further analysis adds another +23 that rank as Leans D. So a range of +16 to +39 is in play, before I even get to the tossups. Based on previous wave years, we should get a few tossups and all but one or two leaners. So compared to my call of +39 two weeks ago, I’m upping that to +40 as the most probable gain now.

There’s 16 too close to call so the odds are we’ll get half of those at least. Two weeks ago, I predicted a range of 35-44 and picked that middle of 39. Based on calculations made till midday Election day, my final analysis says a range of 37 -47 with the +40 as the most certain.

Governors: The Rs held the edge at 28-22, but Ds will definitely be picking up five in AR, CO, MA, NY, OH. Republicans have only longshot chances for pickups:

IA, but momentum shows Culver peaking above 50% now, and nothing indicates this will be closer than 5%.

IL, the conviction of a Blagojevich contributor seems to have given Topinka a 3% boost in the final week, but he hasn’t been clearly tied to any scandal despite the circumstantial evidence Topinka has pushed. The polls still show a 4%-8% edge.

ME, Baldacci hasn’t closed the deal and late polling has him sinking. But in an unusual twist, Woodcock is sinking too, as all the momo has gone to the Independent Merrill. There’s a longshot that she could pass Woodcock, but with a 36-30-21 edge that only is reflected in one poll in the last 6 days, there’s a chance, but it’s pretty slim since that poll only has 1% undecided to make up the difference. Since 9/12, Woodcock has lost 11%, while Baldacci has lost 6% over that time.

OR, but other than the unreliable Zogby Interactive, every other poll since 9/28 has given Kulongoski at least a 7% edge.

WI, but other than a GOP sponsored poll and the unreliable Zogby Interactive, no poll has given challenger Green more than 44% and all but the (R) and (ZI) polls keep saying Doyle by at least 4%-6%

OR and IA look perfectly safe and ME doesn’t show any shift that threatens that incumbent’s remaining lead. Only WI and IL could be vulnerable if they lose the GOTV push. That leaves a breakdown that looks like this:

Solid D 22 - Probable D 3 - Leans D 2

Looking at the GOP seats, they still are at greater risk:

AK, Palin fell to a tie, but now has gained a 5% edge in the last week. She’s likely to hold it, but a good D turnout makes an upset as doable as the weakest of the vulnerable Ds I just outlined.

FL, again, Crist is the likely winner, but Davis has been closing fast and internal polling by both suggests this will come in closer than 5%, so it’s as close as AK.

ID, in a very GOP state, it’s shocking that Otter hasn’t put this away. The momo is clearly Brady’s, who holds a 5% lead. But a large undecided group of 12%-20% in the last two polls could break to Otter with this state’s history. Momentum vs. history keeps this too close to call.

MD, it’s only been a 2% shift in the last six weeks for Ehrlich, so it’s hard to call that momo. They’re tied, it’s a blue state, so O’Malley gets a tiny edge from that. But it’s clearly TCTC.

MN, the major polls have had this within 4 points for two months. Pawlenty has not held the lead since September, but in the last two weeks he’s steadily been 1%-2% behind. No visible momo exists for either side. It will clearly be decided by the GOTV drive, as it remains TCTC.

NV, without photo proof that he assaulted a cocktail waitress he was hitting on, Gibbons’ campaign was hoping the bleeding had stopped with Titus closing to 2% from 8% in the last two weeks of October. But he admitted to drinking, a no-no for a Mormon, the basement-hidden immigrant hired help issue remains, and now he’s admitted to accepting gifts from a lobbyist that got a big contract. He’s not going to reverse Titus’ gains, so the question is whether he can hold her back. With about 5% undecided on 10/30, he needs to get half of them. I expect some polling tomorrow will determine if Titus’ momo will put her over the top. But for now, it’s TCTC.

RI, Carcieri is on track to hold this. It’s only a longshot for Fogarty.

VT, insufficient polling to determine if Parker has made any inroads in the last two weeks. With a 10% edge to make-up in the very blue state, and 7% undecided, it remains a longshot, too.

But couple the remaining seats to be decided on both sides of the aisle, and it looks like this:

Solid D 22 - Probable D 3 - Leans D 2 - Tossup 4 - Leans R 0 - Probable R 4 - Solid R 15

Granting the probables provides a clearer picture:

Solid D 25 - Leans D 2 - Tossup 4 - Leans R 0 - Solid R 19

Though a 25-25 tie is possible, the likelihood is Dems ending up with 27-31 seats, and a huge Dem wave could grant them as many as 35. I prefer to split the outcome right in the middle, so as I predicted last week, 29-30 remains the best projection and in any event, there’s at least a 75% they’ll get a minimum 26 seat majority.

Senate: Some small poll shifts, but viewing trends now, it definitely looks like we’ll only lose TN, so we could get the Senate by 1 seat. Assuming no trend reverses and turnout is good.

That’s not certain. My projections say we win VA by 2, MD by 3, MO and MT by 4, NJ by 7 and lose TN by 5 and AZ by 7. So we could lose VA and MD and end up two short.

And FYI, I have Lamont losing by 8, but like Pederson in AZ, both could close to 4 pts, too.

The complete, final election series:

2006: Topical Depression or Levee Breaker? v. 1

2006: Democratic Tsunami is Highest Among Governor Races, v. 2

2006: All your Base Is Belong to the U.S., v. 3

2006: Election Update, v. 3.5

2006: In Search of the Holy Whale: v.4

2006: Election Update, v. 4.5