McCain’s the official pointer-retriever and Saddam the bagged duck for the ritual SOTU Bushfest love-in

It’s no surprise that Saddam Hussein will be executed within 30 days. Though the article doesn’t say it, we can narrow that window a little more: he’ll be hanged before January 23rd because that’s when Bush will give his SOTU speech.

Which points to the sham of the entire judicial proceedings. Justice is served according to an American political timetable more than any other factor. So Saddam has no more than 27 days before his show-hanging.

The flexibility in timing merely permits them to hang him early if Sunni resistance escalates too fast to contain. But Bush needs his scalp to provide justification for his massive misconduct of his fraudulent war.

Meanwhile, Karl Rove is pushing the lie that Bush is ‘rethinking stuff’. Glorious leader must appear serious and engaged in strategery.

Juan Cole provides an excellent summary of the myths impeding forward progress in that strategery. It’s a convenient rhetorical device to round them off to ten. Numbers 4, 5 and 6 don’t really impede anything, but are only important to understanding the promulgation of spin. Numbers 1, 2, 3, 8, 9 and 10 are the myths most salient to the impediment of any effective way forward.

In addition to Cole, several of his commenters raise important points. I’ll repeat mine here:

While you, General Odom, Dr. Mathews and other commenters point out the myths, I continue to believe that the problem is not that Bush/Cheney believe them.

They promote them, yes, to buy time, troops and resources, and for political gain. But they won’t negotiate with militia leaders, from al-Sadr to the key Sunni ones, under the guise of refusing to negotiate with those who’ve killed American troops.

But the reality, to me, is that they simply remain adamant about not dealing with ‘populist leaders of peasants.’

The Bush cabal has long demonstrated a penchant for dealing with elites, no matter how discredited or ineffective those elitists are, or how dirty. Chalabi is just one example of that. Elites, after all, can generally be trusted to maintain a love for wealth and power that supersedes any other ideology.

With the middle-class professionals fleeing, the Mahdi Army can only continue to grow from its working class and underclass base of support. And to Bush/Cheney, dealing with them would make them class traitors on a par with FDR.

If my instincts on this point are correct, the class war remains the impediment to Bush pursuing negotiations with the right people. And you’re right, the refusal to withdraw remains the impediment to the first big step forward.

But I think that decision remains political, rooted in the decision by the White House to do all they can to get McCain elected. And if that’s the case, we can pretty much expect that McCain’s war initiatives will continue to lead the way on the course the White House has (privately) set.

That grants McCain the appearance of looking prescient, though he’s not really the one calling the shots. He’s just the guy getting the TPM tipoffs behind the scenes, working to solidify his cred among the interests backing Bush.

And both the political maneuvering and the class war will continue to be fought for the interests of elites, not Americans, not American troops, and especially not Iraqis.

If withdrawal is to come, look for McCain to signal it. But it will likely happen at the most opportune time to grant him an advantage in the primaries.

Of course, events in Iraq could undermine that longterm planning, as could events in DC, if the Dem majority plays hardball. One thing seems especially certain. Bush has consistently underestimated the intelligence of al-Sadr, who seems to display a shrewdness and adaptability that produces wins even when his forces take a hit.

You point to the right ways forward. But as long as Bush remains fundamentally opposed to those paths, that seems to be the intractable impediment.

What will it take to change that, one battle where our soldiers take a big hit? Or will it happen when the elites Bush is most trusting of - the House of Saud - breaks ranks and exercises leadership along an alternative path?

That, to me, remains the $64,000 question.

And why am I convinced that McCain is the heir-apparent preferred by Bush/Cheney? It boils down to a combination of polling numbers and the electoral college map.

Kansas, Nebraska, Massachusetts, California and Georgia are not very likely presidential swing states. McCain’s AZ home state, however, is a necessity for a GOP win.

It’s the depth of craven politics to suggest that the lives of millions of Iraqis and thousands of US troops will remain pawns in political games, but when has craven dissuaded this White House from any immoral course?