For the President, perhaps, as the House of Representatives’ Democrats held serve, joined by 17 Republicans, for a non-binding resolution blasting the President over his handling of the Iraq War in general, and over “the SurgeTM” in particular. As WaPo’s analysis indicates, this is certainly a turning point for Congressional oversight of the President, which for the past six years had been as AWOL as the President himself during his brief military career. My former political science professor (and President Carter’s National Security Advisor) Zbiegniew Brzezinski believes that this could be a turning point as well, indicative that the next two years will be rocky for the President, as he continues to try and worsen the debacle he has caused in Iraq… and possibly up the ante with a debacle in Iran.

WaPo’s analysis also notes, however, the potential pitalls for Democrats, i.e., a repeat of the (quite false, but perceived as real) perception that “Democrats are soft on defense”, reminiscing about a cut to funding of the South Vietnamese government in 1974-5 which arguably led to the fall of South Vietnam, even if, for all practical purposes, that war was quite lost by that point anyway. On that note, Booman has this interesting discussion of Administration policy to downplay the psychological impact on our soldiers, because the perception of beaten men and women (not to mention amputees and flag draped coffins) is just too much of a reminder of losing, i.e., Vietnam… best to go for, you know, “winning images” (like the World Trade Center on fire, or Saddam’s statue falling… that sort of thing.)

Well, here we are. We are in some sense in terra incognita: we have a President with record low approval ratings. We have an extraordinarily unpopular war (at least out in the provinces, such as here in Brooklyn and places like it). We have a Democratic majority in Congress who was elected precisely because the electorate has had it with unbridled Presidential power and institutional arrogance. This should be an incredible opportunity to, quite literally, stick the war up Bush’s ass, and greatly increase the cost (to him) of future unwarranted aggression.

As the debate turns to the Senate, where the majority is much tighter and the rules much more cumbersome, Republicans need to be reminded of names like “Mike DeWine”, “Rick [Man on Dog] Santorum”, “George [Macaca] Allen”, “Jim [No] Talent”, even “Linc [Selective Principles] Chafee”, “Conrad [Mister] Burns”… Republicans in the Senate who defied the will of their constituents, and have been rewarded with well-deserved retirement. Yes, perhaps they will hold together… for now. Maybe they will block what is, after all, a non-binding resolution on what amounts to a procedural point (”disapproval” of what amounts to a troop deployment decision in an already sanctioned military action). BUT…

The Republicans are well aware that this could just be the beginning… According to this Fox poll (see page eight), Americans, by a 52-37 margin, want funds cut off for the SurgeTM… in short, the people are way ahead of the Congress on this one… the Republicans see the need to make a big stand now, to see if they can stop the momentum of a Congress actually adhering to the will of the people… because otherwise they know…

Then they will be in for a world of pain.