Governor Bill Richardson makes a quick withdrawal of troops an unequivocal part of his campaign, at the Huffington Post.
Moral legitimacy requires withdrawal. Maintaining the strategic strength and vigilance capabilities of our armed forces for defense against actual enemies requires withdrawal. Richardson, Dodd, Kucinich and Gravel understand this.
The others propose variations and methodologies to avoid the potential trap of making a commitment that anti-US forces might exploit. In reality, such a trap is impossible to set as the public would permit any president to respond to protect the troops and this country if either was newly endangered during the withdrawal process.
Even the candidates for swift withdrawal should be engaging the public in a serious discussion of the economics and geopolitical interests at play here.
Under the regionalization of federalism approaches, Sunnis are effectively dealt no economic base. Vengeful Shias are content with that after the subjugation they endured at the hands of certain Sunni branches under Saddam. Independent jihadists and foreign fighters seek to exploit this division and occasionally succeed at that.
China, especially, is most dependent on the oil and natural gas flow from Iraq and Iran. Most Arab states, being Sunni, will resist any ’solution’ that abandons Iraq’s Sunnis. And the governments of Iran and Syria have ideological reasons to seek Shia dominance, while also recognizing the economic advantages available in the control of the oil. Russia, India and Japan have clear economic stakes in the outcome, too.
And that’s what’s missing from the candidate statements: an open discussion about the oil competition. The underlying rationale for both Gulf Wars and the threats against Iran is rarely exposed to light at all, even though most informed analysts and observers understand the outlines of those geopolitical economic stakes, the candidates shy from laying it out publicly, which smacks of evasion, distrust of the public’s capacity to grasp the complicated realities, and plain old dishonesty.
It’s also true that Iraq and Iran and the Saudis and Kuwait are wholly dependent on global oil demand to make their economies go, so no matter who’s in power, each must negotiate with the US. Were we to find alternate energy sources, they’d be in economic squalor.
Just as our current leaders rely on a constant bogeyman approach to get the public to grant them the autonomous use of military forces, so do the corrupt regimes across the Middle East use us as the bogeyman to maintain their repressive powers. Yet they simultaneously must negotiate with us - a principal buyer of their economic foundation.
That game must end, before any real and lasting peace takes hold throughout the Middle East. And only a convincing effort to pursue energy alternatives can provide the leverage to compel them to change that modus operandi. Military impositions have not succeeded in stabilizing oil supplies. They’ve only driven market speculators to jack up oil profits to all oil producers, including our own, while causing economic pain for oil consuming citizens everywhere.
That’s not to suggest that the military never be used in emergency situations, but diplomacy - the art of negotiating so the interests of each party are granted full consideration - can almost always produce better results with the least human casualties.
Given that, there’s no doubt that Richardson’s foreign policy credentials are the best in the field. But if his campaign strategy is to point to that past and add a withdrawal promise, he’ll never overtake the front runners. Instead of treating us in a condescending way, he needs to level with us about the oil game better than anyone’s currently doing.
Honesty and transparency would be a bold departure from the current campaign strategies. He doesn’t need to define how he’ll leverage key negotiating points but he’s got to demonstrate he has a clear grasp on what the interests of each nation in the mix are, to demonstrate his capacity for leadership. Not leadership that occurred yesterday, but leadership that’s evident today.
Saying “I’ll do an immediate withdrawal” only sounds like he’s heard what the majority wants. Hearing us is a nice change from the present administration, but defining our national interests and what post-withdrawal possibilities might be employed to pursue a fair balance of competing interests would demonstrate a command of the multi-tiered issues at work.
Richardson and Dodd best represent the middle and have taken one bold step forward. But until they take that second step - or the third step of putting forth a positive domestic vision - they can’t surpass the skepticism of voters that are willing to hand the nomination to who they perceive can fight a winning campaign against the GOP.
At the moment, that perception is betting on the Clinton machine. Nostalgia and the sense of desperation for a win can only be superseded by demonstrating rational leadership, bold yet not extreme, reassuring yet not complacent, inspiring yet not far-fetched.
I continue to listen for the other steps. If they don’t occur within the next 6 or 7 weeks, it’ll be nearly impossible to derail the momentum of the Clinton machine. And that, to me, remains to the right of the middle, too representative of corporate interests at the expense of our nation’s best interests, and still too much Republican Lite.
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