So will it or won’t it be Hillary after all? Compared to the Republican ratings, it’s far easier to define where the Democratic nominees are going.

If the deciding factor to Democratic primary voters was electability, they’d be flocking to John Edwards. After all, after Gore’s poor showing in the South and the 2004 election, it’s been clear that no Northern Democrat could pull a Southern state into the fold except Florida and Arkansas. With the Clintons move to the north, Arkansawyers were already likely to stay in the GOP fold and if Huckleberry emerges on the GOP national ticket, that becomes a solid bet. But Edwards could compete for North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and the Southern-minded voters of West Virginia would be a virtual certainty.

Edwards has already been Number Two on the ticket and it’s not a role he’ll accept again. The odds remain that he’ll advance no further than third place, but the sole saving grace is if he emerges from the Iowa primary in first place. Second place won’t suffice. If it’s second to Hillary, he gains no momentum. If it’s second place to Obama, the momo stays with Obama.

The nature of the caucus system and Iowa’s history of adding surprises that defy the polls means we can’t rule out Edwards yet. Only after that caucus can we determine if the Dems will produce a two or three person race. Nowhere else does Edwards show the strength or momentum to last pass Super Tuesday, so his fate remains in the hands of Iowans alone, unless he’s holding an unplayed ace yet. If he is, he’s got exactly one week to play it.

Richardson will round out the top four in Iowa, but his momentum will dry up after New Hampshire in any case. Which brings us back to the media’s twin darlings, Hillary and Barack. A week from now we’ll know if Edwards has a play left and if he does, it’ll be reflected in Iowa polls between Christmas and New Year’s Day. Setting that possibility aside for the rest of this analysis, here’s how the top two rank.

In Iowa, it’s Obama with 33%, followed by Hillary and Edwards tied at 24%. Or maybe it’s Obama and Clinton tied at 27% with Edwards at 24%. In either case, Clinton’s slide is continuing and Edwards support is holding. The question is whether Obama’s momentum has peaked or is continuing. I can’t answer that.

In New Hampshire, it’s 32% for Obama, 31% for Clinton and 18% for Edwards. The unregistered voters will, I predict, weigh in on the Democratic side because they’re not likely to be able to impact a Romney win there. As a result, Obama’s Iowa result will count, but even moreso this race will hinge on which campaign is more effective in its GOTV effort. But unless Edwards wins in Iowa, after New Hampshire’s close vote is done, the race afterward will be between these two.

Which means South Carolina holds newly found power in the primary process. But Obama’s surge there came from Black voters so if Edwards’ support disintegrates any, at best it’s likely to move 50-50 to the top two. Obama can catch Hillary there, but only if he wins the first two. So the ball is likely to shift to Nevada at that point. That remains the one state I rate as next to impossible for anyone but Hillary to win. But can it stop Obama?

Barring an Iowa surprise for Edwards then, the Dems are likely looking at a very close race in 3 of the 4 first states, and Michigan’s vote will be disregarded as promised (as Dems and Indies will likely flock to vote in the GOP race). So it will be Florida where the biggest test will emerge prior to Super Tuesday.

My knowledge of Florida’s demographics, where retired women outlive their retired husbands, coupled with clear indications that Hillary’s still outdrawing Barack by a huge and growing margin, says Florida will weigh in solidly in the Clinton camp.

Edwards could change that, if he wins Iowa, but Obama can’t.

So despite the media narrative that Obama’s making a race of it, that’s only true till Florida. That WILL have an impact on the Super Tuesday races.

In the South, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Tennessee will definitely lean to Hillary if it’s a two-way race with Edwards excluded. In Midwestern and Western states, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, New Mexico, North Dakota and Oklahoma are also, for the most part, likely to follow California’s big slate of delegates, which also remains heavily tilted Clinton’s way. And of course, she’s going to carry her home state of New York.

Even if Obama were to carry Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, and one or two of the other states, Florida, California and New York make for a tough blockade to overcome.

At this point in the season, Hillary still retains a substantive advantage that will require more oomph from Obama or missteps by Hillary to change. Edwards could change the dynamics in many of the red states. Since he’s unlikely to pull out before Super Tuesday in any case, the odds remain high for Hillary to emerge from Super Tuesday with a lead. The only real question after Iowa’s settled is whether Obama reaches February 6th in a close or distant second place.

It’s Hillary’s to lose in the next 53 days. If she has 60% of the delegates after February 5th, she’ll be the nominee. If Obama gets 45% of them by then, he can and will surpass her in the remaining 24 states. In between those two outcomes, or if Edwards wins Iowa, there’s the possibility of a brokered convention.

But keep your eyes on all three in the next week. Barring any fresh developments by those three in that period, my betting will remain on Hillary, with Iowa voters as the only wildcard question after Christmas.