Polling in Iowa remains futile for Dems; reveals Huckabee slipping for GOP
The latest McClatchy/MSNBC/Mason-Dixon poll has Edwards leading, but the other two within 2 points. None of the others reaches the 15% threshold but Richardson could. He’s within the margin of error. And for second choice, Edwards has the edge over his rivals, too. So this suggests Edwards is surging at the right time.
On the GOP side, it’s now Romney over Huckabee, 27%-23%. McCain or Thompson will take third, several points back.
Or maybe not.
After all, the Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll, also released today, has significantly different results, with Hillary at the top, Edwards 7 points back, Obama in between and nobody else exceeding 5%.
The first poll had half the voters. The second covered the same two day span, plus one more, through yesterday. So its error margin is smaller. But with a shrinking pool of undecideds, there’s just no way to call this one. Obama has to turn out the least reliable demographic - the young - so of the three, his GOTV effort has to be incredibly effective. And the second choice voters will likely decide this race.
This one shows Huckabee up on Romney by 1%, and McCain clearly in a distant third. Romney’s clearly caught the latest wave per both polls, so if that continues, he could eke out the win. In both parties, though, there’s 6% undecided, so they’ll both be key as well.
Bottom line: two winners from these five, but no one can call it with any certainty. The Zogby poll will especially excite Ron Paul supporters, though, as it shows him tied with Thompson and Giuliani at 8%. That’s fourth, but it’s also just 3 points back from McCain.
I presume there’ll be another poll out by Wednesday, which may add some light, but these two are among the top pollsters going based on past records. Momo favors Romney and Edwards, but the intangibles - turnout, undecideds, and second choicers - ultimately control both outcomes.
