It won’t be progressives, nor the working class, nor the middle class below median income, nor anyone with less than a bachelor’s degree, nor Latinos, Blacks or women, nor white males making less than $50K/yr. And it sure won’t be members of the military sent to carry out the policies of the wealthy and powerful by killing and being killed or wounded. Nor will it be the majority of the Iraqi people, who do happen to be living, breathing human beings according to any God you might worship.

No, it’ll be a few politicians, most of whom have a lot of ambition and really don’t give a shit about you or me unless you happen to be wealthy and/or influential.

Will the endorsement of Obama by Teddy Kennedy or Caroline Kennedy matter? Sure. People 55 and older still look fondly upon the Kennedys because of JFK and RFK, so a few will be influenced. But just as most Iranians have no memory of the Shah, less than a third of America really recall the dead Kennedys and a third of them - being Republican - won’t be influenced still.

But primary season can be a game of inches so it could make a difference in three or four states. Which really matters little since delegates aren’t awarded like electoral votes.

It has become wearisome reading political blogs lately. I can predict what almost all will say because they just find fresh ways to reiterate who they support and too many commenters believe that rudeness and flame wars are as good as logic in changing minds. In short, there’s many flavors of assholes but the smell remains a constant.

Some bloggers, however, remain fun to read because they take care with their presentation. I’ll provide a long excerpt but you should read this in its totality.

Melina at Brilliant At Breakfast:

The difference between me and Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg is one of having faith in human nature and hope that the American system and/or the American people are strong enough, at this point in history, to fall behind an idealistic young candidate and go through with what will be necessary to turn this ship around before it hits ground. I keep imagining the moment that, in the midst of a terra alert, we put McCain or Romney into office just to be “safe.” Hey, Its happened before! Don’t rule it out!

I don’t know what rosy colored glasses the Kennedy’s look through to maintain their hope in the face of tragedy, and as political insiders who have seen their share of the gruesome details, but its sort of heartening and lovely in a way…and a little unreal. I also think that it has something to do with being raised in an extended family of public servants who are steeped in being able to promote change. They are told this from the moment they hit the ground running, and they have the support, even in trauma and dysfunction, of their extended family and religion to keep going. They also are from money; not that they all have riches beyond compare, because there are so many of them, but operating from a platform of upper classiness, they are educated and prepped for a life of great privilege, and a life of service to balance it. Religion has something to do with it too. They are Catholics, and it seems that having a higher reason behind what the aim is, helps with all those questions of why.

A coy Obama as much as admitted that Teddy Kennedy is on board as well. Breaking News: Tomorrow comes the endorsement. Do they know the real thing when they see it just because they are Kennedys? Because everything about Obama seems to rely more on the feeling that he gives people than actual substance. I’d like to see more substance and less positioning.

Granted, I would be the virtual Woody Allen neurotic New Yorker to any Kennedy hope filled spiel about this young candidate being of the flesh and the body of the father. It must be nice to feel like you’ve found the reincarnation of hope, but I’m not quite there yet, to be honest, I’m doubtful about the whole thing. America does not have a very good track record at successfully letting hopeful leaders make their way into office. Surely, if Barak Obama is going to be brave enough to throw himself out there, I’m willing to listen, but it took me four years and an in person meeting to make me start to think that John Edwards really means what he says, and I have some very concrete reasons why I like him.

Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg’s reasoning about Obama had less to do with the specifics of what Obama might do, than with things that people have told her about how he reminds them of her father. See, she doesn’t really remember her father, but I’m sure that she knows everything he ever did, and the concrete reasoning behind it all, so why this wishy-washy endorsement? It sounds to me like ” He moves the American people and makes them feel good..” and people say that he reminds them of my father, so lets trust him to try to dig us out of the worst hole we’ve been in, maybe ever?

Whoever gets the job is bound to look bad pretty quickly if not right away. There is just too much to clean up, and even the most experienced politician is gonna have to get their hands really dirty, offending alot of people along the way, meanwhile trying to fix the diplomatic mess that they are going to be left with. I think that whoever is the winner of this contest is going to end up with the short end of the stick, and the war is going to be his/her’s, thanks to the democratic majority’s inability to get itself to act, even in the interest of getting some information on the record to protect the next president.

I’ve been a little shocked at the reaction of a few people in the blogosphere to Edwards not dropping out of the race when he didn’t win South Carolina.
I see no reason for him to drop out, and in fact, I urge him to stay in…I sent him money, and will send more after the 1st of the month. I guess that the best thing about this race has been the discourse. Some of it has been insane and some of it has been upsetting, but mostly, it’s been good to see everyone allowed to talk out loud about whats been going on for these years in what seemed like a virtual gulag, as the terra alerts went from yellow to red, and we were told the best way to duct tape ourselves into a room in case of attack. Remember all that? Some woman around here actually killed herself and her kid because she sealed them into a room too tightly at a time when they had to use a generator or heater or something.

Remember not being able to buy duct tape because that asshole director of homeland security, Tom Ridge, said that all Americans should have these things…and survival food…doesn’t it seem like a fucking dream? How did they successfully carry out all of the lies? How is it that they wont have to pay somehow? And isn’t it crazy that any of these fools wants the job at all?

Yeah, you have to be pretty sure of yourself to think that you might be able to fix this mess up…even with a full staff of advisers, I cant imagine that anyone wouldn’t have some trepidation. And I guess that I don’t feel like Obama has the experience to run the entire country …but I’d prefer to take a chance with him than to go with what I know will be business as usual with Billary. One way or another, we’re bound to take a bit of a dip before we start to rebound. The dip might last what seems like a long time in our short sightedness, but historically it will be a blip. It’s what we deserve for getting too lazy to pay attention and vote, and the turnout speaks loudly to the fact that its going to be a long time before people become that complacent again.

On the GOP side, from a year ago, I found plenty of reasons to dislike them all, but I was less eager to attack some of them for several reasons. Rudy was always a joke, but I knew he couldn’t even hold the red states. And if he somehow did get elected, I figured he’d not be appointing more fundies to the Extreme Court, which makes him a little better than every other Republican running. Romney, quietly backed by the Bushes, had all the funding and business backing, but he, too, couldn’t even hold the Southern red states as well as Bush did. If Dems wanted a guaranteed win, we couldn’t do better than facing off against Mitt. It was clear the evangelicals were going to have to go somewhere, so it was no surprise to see Huckabee rise. Nutty as he is, he’s genial, good-natured and more convincing than Brownback and the others were. Yet the chickenhawks and corporatists quickly recoiled at his strength in Iowa and have scrambled ever since to undercut him because of his too apparent flaws. Still, he carries an awful lot of popular goodwill in Southern red states where the GOP’s fundie base has influence.

And this is what baffles me about the uncoordinated Dem strategy of attacking them all with ferocity. Because it’s been way too obvious that Republicans have been running scared ever since the November 2006 election. It is them - not us - that have had to worry about ‘electability’. At least 6 of our 8 original candidates could have beaten most of the GOP contenders easily. I long ago determined that only McCain had a chance at beating those 6 and even if he does, in every case, it’ll be by the thinnest of margins.

So why were we busy aiding the other side in sorting out the chaff from the dead wheat? Oh well, I’ve never underestimated the lack of analytical strength of American voters, including most party activists.

So let’s review what’s going to happen next.

As I stated in early December, Rudy is out of it. And the polling proves my point that McCain is the most worrisome of the other three in head to head matches with the three remaining Democratic contenders.

Yet that still doesn’t mean the GOP will choose McCain. Huckabee will pull some Southern states, McCain should pull more Super Tuesday states than him and Romney combined. Yet Romney, by winning a few and running close in several others, still should emerge with either the most total delegates overall or will be close behind, in second place.

Conclusion: The GOP race will continue at least till mid-March. The odds now favor a Romney/McCain race, but the odds are good that two of these three will be on the GOP ticket in November, because they are desperate and damn well should be.

On to the Dems…

The race continues to be Hillary’s to lose. The perfect timing of the Kennedy endorsements, coupled with others, demonstrates that Obama’s team is a lot more savvy than some critics dare to admit:

The Kennedy endorsement is likely to give Obama a lift among Hispanic voters because of Kennedy’s passionate advocacy of immigration legislation. The Obama campaign, which lags far behind Clinton among Hispanic voters in national polls, is likely to prominently display the endorsements by both Kennedys in Latino communities.

The disclosure also comes the same weekend that the House’s highest-ranking Latino, California Rep. Xavier Becerra, also announced that he is backing Obama.

What they’re attempting to do is utilize the strong Obama numbers from South Carolina to propel a mob mentality momentum upon undecided voters, hoping they’ll embrace the cult of personality that Obama generates. I grant them the slimmest possibility of success.

After all, that youth movement proved inadequate for Howard Dean in 2004. For Obama to succeed on Super Tuesday, he needs more big endorsements this week. Like Bill Richardson’s. Because the weakest part of his campaign organization continues to be among Latinos, where Hillary’s very strong.

Among the 22 states weighing in on Super Tuesday, 10 offer less than 50 delegates and in that group, Obama could easily split half of them. But consider those top dozen plums and who the polls suggest will win:

CA 370, Clinton
NY 232, Clinton
IL 153, Obama
NJ 107, Clinton
MA 93, Clinton
GA 87, Obama
MN 72
MO 72, Clinton
TN 68, Clinton
AZ 56, Clinton
CO 55
AL 52

The blanks are close enough to swing either way. However, with the raft of Kennedy and Latino endorsements, Obama could pull closer, especially in CA and MA, two of the top five. His goal is not to emerge with the most Super Tuesday delegates but to remain close enough to continue to build post-Super Tuesday momentum.

Like Melina, I want John Edwards to stay in the race to continue to pressure the others to take more progressive stances including an early exit plan for Iraq. But realistically, if he can’t pull a single win on Super Tuesday, the only way he can sustain is to self-finance, and I can’t see him lasting past February 17th without a win.

I think the remaining February contests will prove more accessible to Obama if he emerges from Super Tuesday in reasonably good shape. Little Tuesday on March 4th, or after the Mississippi primary of March 11th (when 41 states plus DC will have voted) will be the ultimate dates for Obama to push on for a divided convention.

Hillary won’t lose pre-convention. Period. Obama has to stay in good position on Super Tuesday to be able to have a shot at outpointing her the rest of the way. In the next 8 days, I expect he’ll skip only NY and NJ among those dozen bigger states.

At the moment, I still rate Hillary and Romney as the two most likely to prevail. But Obama and McCain could fully emerge as the leaders by March 4th if they can sustain the momentum they’ve developed in January. Edwards is cooked. Huckabee remains a wildcard.

To me, what’s more important is the pressure this puts on Clinton and Obama to demonstrate leadership on key issues, but like Tim Tagaris, I’m not counting on them to do so yet. Only real actions will suffice.