Delegates Democrats Need to Win = 2,025

Clinton 632 dels, 193 superdels, 825 total
Obama 626 dels, 106 superdels, 732 total

They’re essentially tied with superdelegates making the difference.

Delegates Republicans Need to Win = 1,191

McCain 598 dels, 17 superdels, 615 total
Romney 259 dels, 9 superdels, 268 total
Huckabee 166 dels, 3 superdels, 169 total

Only NM has yet to report complete results with a victory awarded.

Josh Marshall weighs out the meaning of Super Tuesday and what it bodes for the coming weeks.

Then John Judis at TNR tries looking at the demographics and gives the impression that none can win in November, because each has weaknesses.

Matt Yglesias provides a suitable rebuttal to Judis, though I’ll add some points.

Primary voters are more active, likely more politically knowledgable and more partisan. In November, the larger voting base from a perspective relative to the issues alive in their consciousness next fall. Will economic woe be on us then? Another terror attack? Will Iraq violence be on the decline or rise? Nobody can predict where we’ll be at then, so guessing how voters will vote this far out is foolish. Just watch McCain’s rise in the past 2 months or Obama’s rise in the past month, and see how many analysts were predicting either.

Instead, let’s stick to shorter term predictions. Yglesias is right: both Hillary and Obama have demonstrated the capacity to rally quickly for unexpected wins. McCain has demonstrated the same. By Labor Day, when the real campaigns begin, any of them, if within 10 points, could rally to win.

So which of the two Dems has the best shot at grabbing the nomination? Josh Marshall’s mostly right, but let’s add a review based on racial demographics.

First, the largest slates of delegates remaining will come from, in order, TX, PA, OH, then NC and VA, then WA, IN, WI and LA. Those - individually or collectively - have the greatest odds of proving decisive to the fortunes of either Clinton or Obama. So where do they rank in terms of high percentages of Latinos or Blacks?

Here’s the Latino list. The numbers reflect the percentage of Latinos compared to each state’s total population. These are the top 28. Obama wins have asterisks. Clinton’s wins will have pound signs.

NM 44.0
CA 35.9 #
AZ 29.2 #
TX 35.7
NV 24.4 #
FL 20.2 #
CO 19.7 *
NY 16.3 #
NJ 15.6 #
IL 14.7 *
CT *, UT * 11.2
RI 11.0
OR 10.2
WA 9.1
KS 8.6 *
DC 8.2
MA 7.9 #
HI 7.8
GA 7.5 *
NE 7.4
OK #, WY 6.9
NC 6.7
VA, DE * 6.3
MD 6.0
AK 5.6
AR 5.0 #

So looking at Clinton’s strength among Latino voters, NM and TX could go her way, but only TX has enough delegates to matter. So let’s consider the top 26 states with the most blacks.

DC 56.5
MS 37.1
LA 31.7
GA 29.9 *
MD 29.5
SC 29.0 *
AL 26.3 *
NC 21.7
DE 20.9 *
VA 19.9
NY 17.4 #
TN 16.9 #
FL 15.8 #
AR 15.7 #
IL 15.0 *
NJ 14.5 #
MI 14.3 #
OH 12.0
TX 11.9
MO 11.5 *
PA 10.7
CT 10.2 *
IN 8.9
NV 7.9 #
OK 7.8 #
KY 7.5
MA 6.9 #
CA 6.7 #
RI 6.3
KS*, WI 6.0

That could indicate an Obama edge in LA, NC and VA, which could add momentum but the three would only offset Hillary’s advantage with Latinos in TX. So no definite lead can be had using these demographics.

But what of key dates in the primary calendar? The only big day remaining would be March 4th, when Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, and Vermont vote. A candidate getting the largest (TX) and third largest (OH) remaining, could get a boost to build on, but there’s only two small primaries in the week that follows, with a six week break till the next (PA). So the momo would impact little.

Which returns us to Josh’s point. No clear strategy exists except to try to build a decent lead between now and March 4th. If one candidate achieves that, in each of the nine states remaining, the voters would know they could provide more edge or play the spoiler, which could provoke turnout. Or provoke cross-party voting where open primaries permit.

So it means a big maybe, no matter how any analyze it. It means both candidates have to continue raising and spending money while McCain will have some time to rest and regroup.

So later today, they’ll both be spinning furiously yesterday’s events, though neither scored a clear win. It’ll be a long, strange trip forward, but the time will allow more campaign time per state, which could also spell the difference. McCain could be a wrap in a month but the Dems are looking at more like three months to get theirs.

Super Tuesday proved only that both can campaign well, while neither has developed a knockout blow… yet.

Note: Clinton picked up 564 delegates, Obama picked up 530, but if his lead holds in New Mexico, there’s 26 delegates and 12 superdelegates there to be divided, which means Clinton’s 34 delegate edge will be smaller, too.