The Superdelegate Question
I believe most superdelegates feel bound to their voters and it’s a welcome sign that people of Lewis’ stature are standing up to say so. But I never believed the Clinton strategy in lobbying the supers was tied to a belief she could get much more there. That advantage was hers at the outset, with those who committed early.
Instead, she’s actually fighting to prevent erosion of that edge, which, politically, makes sense. If she can limit the bleeding during Obama’s momo period, it helps limit even more momo. Her bigger task remains to stop that momo and getting it moving her way.
I agree with Josh Marshall that Lewis carries more influence than many politicians, black or white. But after the racial roiling that came between the candidates in South Carolina, Black voters already shifted to Obama, and that’s where Lewis’ influence is greatest. There’s very few states left - based on my previous analysis - where the Black vote can carry the day. MS and NC are pretty much it.
At this point however, the pursuit of pledged delegates may prove to be a game of inches, so Lewis’ words will help a little in the coming contests. But its influence will be greater among superdelegates, keeping many from committing prematurely and sending some back onto the fence.
Meanwhile, as the Times’ article displays, the Clinton rhetoric has picked up a new tone of economic populism, adopting the themes Edwards was previously pursuing. And the fact is, economic indicators remain pretty grim in the leading indicator, the stockmarket, which is likely to continue into April.
That’s a smart strategy she’s employing, as national events are pointing that way at precisely the time when economic populism is going to be most effective.
But Obama’s not oblivious to that. He’s just got to find the right counter to that. You can bet Mark Penn focus-grouped the ’solutions’ strategy. It replaces ‘more experienced’ which was the same thing, in less impressive words.
Obama clings to a very narrow lead in Wisconsin and Clinton smelled blood, so she came back from Texas in pursuit of a win there. Doing that could set the stage well for March 4th.
Obama has to feel pleased about the fresh stance of Lewis. But it will be his propsals - in WI, TX and OH - that will matter more. For that matter, I think he’d be wise to fly to HI too because no state should be taken for granted right now. Avoiding an Edwards’ endorsement of Clinton, and gaining endorsements from prominent people in TX, OH and PA - including whites, Latinos and women - also are things he should pursue.
But I’m telling him nothing he doesn’t already know. His campaign team has proven shrewd throughout and he’s made very few missteps. Hilllary had a huge advantage at the outset and their team’s made more errors. But that team, too, is extraordinarily savvy, so neither side can rest through the next seven states at least.
For observers like myself, it’s excruciating trying to avoid using yardsticks yet when a six inch ruler will do.


