Desperately seeking Wisconsin… and …
Feb 6-7 ……. ARG … HC 50%, BO 41%, Unsure 8%
Feb 8-10 ……. SV … BO 45%, HC 41%, Unsure 14%
Feb 11 …….. PPP … BO 50%, HC 39%, Unsure 10%
Feb 13 ……. RasR … BO 47%, HC 43%, Unsure 10%
Feb 13-14 .. R2000 .. BO 47%, HC 42%, Unsure 11%
PPP is the Democrat-run Public Policy Polling. Clinton decided to leave Texas and compete for Wisconsin on the 12th. And the results so far can’t be heartening.
That’s Wisconsin. We have no clues about Hawaii. But here’s Ohio:
Feb 6-12 ……. QU … HC 55%, BO 34%, Unsure 9%
Feb 10-11 .. SUSA … HC 56%, BO 39%, Unsure 2%
Feb 13 ……. RasR … HC 51%, BO 37%, Unsure 12%
More reassuring for Clinton, but will she slip under 50% with that campaign barely begun?
Let’s try Rhode Island, which by my demographic study, should favor her the most:
Feb 9-10 … BU … HC 36%, BO 28%, Unsure 9%, Uncommitted 27%
The Uncommitted is an actual ballot choice. Combined with Unsure, it’s tied with Clinton.
And then there’s Texas:
Feb 11-13 … TCUL … HC 49%, BO 41%, Unsure 8%
Feb 13-14 … ARG …. HC 42%, BO 48%, Unsure 7%
Feb 14 …….. IA ……. HC 48%, BO 41%, Unsure 11%
Feb 14 ……..RasR …. HC 54%, BO 38%, Unsure 9%
ARG, the Republican pollster, doesn’t fit the trend, but Texas seems the only one that suggests Clinton’s holding and may be growing a comfortable lead.
Nationally, the post-Super Tuesday trend, shows seven polls, three of them Gallup. Clinton has shifted from 41% to 48% to 45% in that time. Obama has moved from 42% to 47% in that same eight days. In fact, from the poll conclude on Super Tuesday (not shown here), Clinton had a 13% lead. So in 19 days, there’s a 15% reversal now favoring Obama by 2%.
Note: per Survey USA (SUSA), among the 14 most active pollsters, SUSA, Gallup, R2000 and QU have been the most accurate, ranging between 4.50% and 4.83%. You can see for yourself who’s been worse. As well as the full list, counting less active pollsters.
