I have no quarrel with the Clinton camp belief that this primary fight could last to the convention. It could. And they have to set the bar somewhere. It could also end on March 4th or April 22nd in Pennsylvania if they falter badly.

But I think the electability question is not one I’d concern myself with if I was an advocate for either Dem. I think both can beat John McCain. The Clinton campaign has recently suggested that Obama’s primary wins in red states don’t count as much because those states won’t be won in the general election. Carrying that line of logic forward, let’s weigh that against the reasonable conclusion that either would be likely to carry the traditionally strong blue states.

Thus, either Dem is likely to carry the following electoral votes:

CA 55
CT 7
DE 3
DC 3
HI 4
IL 21
MD 10
MA 12
NJ 15
NY 31
RI 4
VT 3

That’s a total of 168 of the 270 needed, and the last few elections bear out their reliably Democratic nature. It would take a terrible campaign to lose any of these. Clinton carried 113 of them in the primaries so far, with Obama carrying 44 (with 11 outstanding). But it’s disingenuous to claim either would lose these. Both have proven themselves to be competent campaigners.

Now let’s consider those that have gone slightly blue in recent campaigns, even though they are close enough that they’d rightly be called Blue Leaning Swing States. They include:

ME 4
MI 17
MN 10
PA 21
WA 11

Keeping those 63 votes for the Dems brings the total to 231 electoral votes, just 39 short of the total needed. Clinton carried 17 of those and Obama 25 in this primary season, (with 21 outstanding.) And note that the 17 for Clinton was from MI, where Obama wasn’t even on the ballot.

The swing states that the Dems have won enough of in recent elections to say they have at least a 50-50 shot include:

IA 7
NM 5
OR 7
WI 10

That’s 29 more, bringing the grand total to 260, just 10 short of a win. So far Clinton has won 5 (NM, by 1%) and Obama 7 (with 17 outstanding.

So if we assume that electability is a real issue this year, and that primary wins are an indicator of who can win what - yet accepting the logic that both will win the 168 votes in the traditional Dem states, the Clinton total is 168 + 17 + 5 = 190 and the Obama total is 168 + 25 + 7 = 200. So far, then, that logic very marginally favors Obama.

Now, based on traditionally Republican states that have been trending close to winnable for the Dems, and including states that have gone Dem at least once in the last four campaigns (Clinton/Clinton/Gore/Kerry), we find:

AR 6
CO 9
FL 27
MO 11
MT 3
NH 4
NV 5

In this group, Clinton carried 37, Obama 20, but again, this includes the uncontested 27 FL votes that Clinton got. Still, if we grant her MI and FL, her total becomes 190 + 37 = 227 and Obama’s is 200 + 20 = 220, once again a virtual tie.

There remain only a few longshots that can be called swing states. These include historically Republican states that have moved to a conceivably winnable range for a Democrat to reach or a state that’s gone Republican in the last two elections.

AZ 10
KY 8
LA 9
NC 15
OH 20
VA 13
WV 5

Of these, Clinton has captured 10 and Obama 22, bringing their totals to Clinton 227 + 10 = 237 and Obama 220 + 22 = 242. Unless McCain runs a disastrous campaign, this displays a 5 point electoral edge to Obama so far and both are within 33 points of victory.

Logic again, however, intrudes. The AZ 10 that Clinton won is not going to go to either Dem against Arizona’s John McCain. So the end result to date is that Obama’s 15 points closer to victory than Clinton.

Let’s guess at a few of the outstanding, to be fair. TX won’t likely go to either Dem. Obama is currently favored (or leaning his way due to demographic factors) in:

HI 4
WI 10
MT 3
NC 15

For 32 more. And Clinton’s are:

OH 20
PA 21
RI 4
WV 5

For 50 more votes. All the remaining states I haven’t counted are either outstanding and too close to call, or highly likely to stay Republican. And this one yields 227 +50 = 277 for Clinton, and 242 + 32 = 274 for Obama.

Both would win the election, using the primary victory argument plus logically Democratic states, plus projected primary wins. And they end up just 3 pts apart. And at every stage of these calculations, neither gained an edge of larger than 15 electoral votes.

Personally, I think the first three groups listed all favor either Dem. And that’s 260 right there. Clinton can probably win AR for another 6. In recent polling, Obama easily defeats McCain in CO and NV for 14 points, but Hillary loses both to McCain. MO, MT, NH, OH and WV provide another 43 very much in play, which could bring both to over 300 electoral votes.

The longest shots (not counting the strong Republican states) are FL 27, KY 8, LA 9, NC 15, and VA 13, based on the last two elections or longer.

Conclusion: the primary state calculations don’t yield much of an electability advantage argument to either side. It’s McCain’s electability that’s in question, not Obama’s nor Clinton’s.

Info sources for your own calculations: Who’s won what in this year’s primaries, and past elections and electoral votes by state for 2008.