Obama wins big in Wisconsin, will be the Democratic nominee
The early projections were right. MSNBC, NBC and CNN called it for Obama in the last half hour.
Though the returns so far indicate a 13% win, my projections say he should carry Wisconsin by 16% when the counting’s done. This, plus Hawaii, should push him at least another 11-12 delegates higher than Clinton tonight.
Did the blip in the tracking polls indicate the Clinton attacks in the past two days have any impact? Yes, among the 12% that decided in the final day, Clinton slightly edged out Obama. So it helped her, marginally, but it barely registered for the approximately 88% who decided earlier.
The sniping attacks overlook the bigger picture that most people, by far, are moved to vote for his theme of hope and change, no matter who’s words he’s quoting.
The minor comforts Clinton can take from this loss:
1) Women older than 65 went big for Hillary.
2) Black women over 60 went big for Hillary and age 45-59 Black women went slightly for Obama.
3) Being an open primary, Obama’s win was mostly driven by Independents and crossover Republicans. Among Democrats alone (63% of those voting in the Dem primary), Obama only won by 3%. Among white Democrats alone, Hillary won by 5%
But as I posted earlier, Obama’s momentum will not be stopped before March 4th and of those three states, Clinton stands a good chance of losing at least two of them, one of them the big state of TX.
Without a major misstep by Obama, Clinton’s last stand must be made in Ohio, and if she pulls that off, must be repeated in PA. From there, she must continue a winning streak till June 7th plus collect the big lead from her contested delegates in FL and MI
So technically her campaign’s alive still, but a close win in OH or two close wins in OH and TX will not be enough to give her a chance to regain the delegate lead.
I stand by my call this afternoon: Obama now has a 90% chance of being the Dem nominee.
February 19th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
The last time we elected an inexperienced “uniter” who advocated “change”, to whom the press largely gave a free ride, we got George W. Bush.
February 20th, 2008 at 12:20 am
Unfair comparison. Bush had established a record as a brutal governor, an incompetent businessman who rode his father’s coattails with constant help and mentoring from Daddy’s pals, a guy who only partially reformed himself at 40.
Obama came from a strong-willed, world-embracing mother, excelled as a student, joined and strengthened his community and served his state capably. He’s had some lucky breaks, to be sure, but his experience and accomplishment outshines in 45 years what Bush and most any dozen Republicans have done cumulatively in longer lives.
Age, experience and seasoning aren’t everything. Talent and vision, a capacity to recruit talent and the dedicated effort toward positive achievements cannot be so easily dismissed. He, like every leader, will make errors. But to predict they’ll be as damaging as Bush’s or even grave ones at all is guesswork without any foundation, except a poor analogy.