Cordesman today:

What the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan have in common is that it will take a major and consistent U.S. effort throughout the next administration at least to win either war. Any American political debate that ignores or denies the fact that these are long wars is dishonest and will ensure defeat. There are good reasons that the briefing slides in U.S. military and aid presentations for both battlefields don’t end in 2008 or with some aid compact that expires in 2009. They go well beyond 2012 and often to 2020.

If the next president, Congress and the American people cannot face this reality, we will lose. Years of false promises about the speed with which we can create effective army, police and criminal justice capabilities in Iraq and Afghanistan cannot disguise the fact that mature, effective local forces and structures will not be available until 2012 and probably well beyond. This does not mean that U.S. and allied force levels cannot be cut over time, but a serious military and advisory presence will probably be needed for at least that long, and rushed reductions in forces or providing inadequate forces will lead to a collapse at the military level.

The most serious problems, however, are governance and development. Both countries face critical internal divisions and levels of poverty and unemployment that will require patience. These troubles can be worked out, but only over a period of years. Both central governments are corrupt and ineffective, and they cannot bring development and services without years of additional aid at far higher levels than the Bush administration now budgets. Blaming weak governments or trying to rush them into effective action by threatening to leave will undercut them long before they are strong enough to act.

‘Any American political leader who cannot face these realities, now or in the future, will ensure defeat in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Any Congress that insists on instant victory or success will do the same. We either need long-term commitments, effective long-term resources and strategic patience — or we do not need enemies. We will defeat ourselves.

Years of false promises? By whom?

Cordesman four months ago:

Is it really worth spending $190 billion this year on the war on Iraq? The answer may well be no, but the U.S. is already so deeply committed that it should take the risk — for one more year.

Part of the tragedy of Iraq is that all the major cards have been dealt, and it is too late to change most elements of U.S. strategy. The leaders of Iraq’s sectarian and ethnic factions are shaping events far more than the United States can. The most the U.S. can do now is to continue to pressure all sides into some form of political accommodation.

What leverage we have at this point does not lie in threatening to leave but in offering more incentives in the form of aid and long-term support. And if we can succeed in bringing the opposing sides together, it will be worth it. There is nothing pretty about what is happening: more than 2 million refugees driven from the country, according to U.N. estimates; 2 million displaced inside Iraq; 80,000 to 100,000 more driven from their homes each month; 8 million in dire poverty and perhaps 100,000 dead and many more wounded.

But any U.S. effort to try to choose a new leader or strongman for Iraq can only breed popular Iraqi anger and distrust. We can only try to bring the Iraqis together and offer them the security and economic aid necessary to make accommodation work.

The odds of success are less than even. But it’s worth a try because the stakes are immense. America’s reputation and credibility are at risk; it “broke” Iraq, put 28 million lives at risk and is morally responsible for the consequences. Global energy security — the continued flow of the oil exports that fuel the world’s economy — are also in play. We shouldn’t stay in a losing game indefinitely. I believe we should give ourselves until October 2008; if there’s no Iraqi political accommodation by then, we should get out.

Meanwhile, we must play out the hand we have dealt ourselves.

‘We’ didn’t deal ‘ourselves’ this hand. The Bush administration bluffed the Republican Congress in 2002 and they threw in their cards. The goalposts were constantly moved: another six months, just one more year. Cordesman was complicit in that ‘false promise’ game.

Now he says the Iraq central government is corrupt and the cure is to increase our welfare payments to those bums by tens of billions for years to come. Or ‘we’ will ‘defeat ourselves.’

What’s changed between now and four months ago? This could be a clue:

Professor Cordesman formerly served as National Security Assistant to Senator John McCain of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Last October, Giuliani was the favorite and McCain was a longshot.

‘100-Years-Of-War’ McCain needs some expert backing now. And the solution is to keep a corrupt government on the same dole that’s drained our treasury, devalued the US dollar and put us all in economic peril. While the oil companies, Cheney’s Halliburton, numerous Bush cronies, and the Iraqi central government get fat by delivering nothing.