The state by state polls, with 8 days to go: Clinton has a small delegate edge on Little Tuesday but possibility of catching Obama narrows
Update: NY Times/CBS poll just out: Nationally, it’s 54-38 for Obama, which seems to confirm the USA Today poll from this morning (listed in the bottom group of polls, below). Though per the SUSA survey, at the bottom of this post, CBS polling was missing by 10 pts through Super Tuesday, which still could mean a 6% lead for Obama. Whatever, it’s still pretty amazing and he has 8 days left to make further inroads before Little Tuesday.
All these polls were released today.
Per CNN/Opinion Research: Texas 50-46 for Obama (statistical tie).
Per American Research Group: Texas 50-42 for Obama.
Note: Average error in results in 2008 polling, CNN (9 pts), ARG (8.5 pts)*
Per Quinnipiac: Ohio 51-40 Clinton.
Per American Research Group: Ohio 49-39 for Clinton.
Per Public Policy Polling: Ohio 50-46 for Clinton.
Per University of Cincinatti: 47-39 for Clinton.
Note: Average error in results in 2008 polling, Q (4.83 pts), PPP (8.11 pts), ARG (8.5 pts) UoC (unknown)*
Per Rasmussen Reports: Rhode Island 53-38 for Clinton.
Per American Research Group (on Feb 22): Rhode Island 52-40 for Clinton.
Note: Average error in results in 2008 polling, RR (7.61 pts), ARG (8.5 pts)*
Per Rasmussen Reports: Vermont 57-33 for Obama.
Per American Research Group (on Feb 22): Vermont 60-34 for Obama.
Note: Average error in results in 2008 polling, RR (7.61 pts), ARG (8.5 pts)*
Per USA Today: Nationally 51-39 for Obama.
Per AP/Ipsos: Nationally 46-43 for Obama.
Per Gallup Daily Tracking : Nationally 47-45 for Obama.
Per Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking: Nationally 45-42 for Obama.
Note: the conflict apparent in the two Gallup polls today is covered here, but remains a mystery.
Using last week’s average polls, it was estimated Clinton would gain 22 more delegates on March 4th than Obama. And one commenter noted she’d then have to win by 22% margins in all the remaining states to catch Obama. And today’s polls show Obama’s closing most of last week’s gaps, so at the moment, Clinton would win even less than that 22 delegate margin. Thus with 8 days to go, barring some fresh development, Clinton continues to look like a longshot who may not be able to continue past Little Tuesday EXCEPT by gaining concessions on the excluded FL/MI primaries.
*2008 Error margins compiled by SUSA through Super Tuesday. From observation - not careful documentation - I believe ARG and PPP have been much closer than RR and Gallup since Super Tuesday.
February 25th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
[…] The other polls from yesterday are listed here. […]