Not a welcome sign for Clinton
From Rasmussen:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania shows Hillary Clinton with a very narrow advantage over Barack Obama in the Democratic Presidential Primary. Clinton earns 46% of the vote while Obama earns 42%.
For those who wonder if Clinton will soldier on to Pennsylvania if she wins Ohio and loses Texas, this suggests she’d have little incentive to do so. If she comes away from Little Tuesday with little or no delegate gain on Obama, with WY and MS as certain losses, a 4% lead in PA can’t be very reassuring.
Rasmussen has Obama up in Texas by 4 pts today, and Clinton’s Latino advantage down to 7%. Based on past projections versus primary day outcomes, I’m comfortable with my previous prediction that Obama will win Texas by at least 8%.
Chris Bowers puts forth some delegate math that better describes the pickle Clinton is in.
February 28th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
The question then of course is will she see the handwriting on the wall and quit.
I am not going to make any predictions because I predicted New Hampshire for Obama and ended up with egg on my face the next day.
If she were to lose Texas and Vermont, and to win Ohio narrowly and take Rhode Island, fund raising might prove her undoing. She has taken in $35 in January, but Obama’s representative played coy when he said that he has pulled in “substantially more than that” which is a tactic I think designed to not inspire desperation money from Clinton backers, which is what would happen if he clearly had an serious edge on money, which is pretty clear he does.
February 28th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
$35 MILLION.
Heh. Ralph Nader will pull in $35. But not from me.
February 28th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
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