Early Monday polls say the trends now favor Clinton in OH, TX
A week ago, I predicted Obama would take TX by 8 pts and OH would be within 4 pts no matter who won (though I’ll admit I thought it likely would go Clinton. Calculating delegates a couple of days ago, I estimated Obama would gain 10 more than Clinton.
If the early Monday polls (in-state pollsters) are verified by the bigger pollsters later in the day, it will confirm what was a blip on Friday… that Clinton has reversed the trend favoring Obama the final week. Which could reverse everything, but just for March 4th.
So if the big polls show similar numbers, it could be Clinton by 8 pts in OH, Clinton by 4 pts in TX, a big margin in RI and Obama would only get a big win in VT. In that case, Clinton could gain about 14 delegates on Obama, claim momentum, and everything continues.
The Obama can reclaim the momentum in WY and MS. Then 4 weeks to PA.
The back and forth will continue till the end. Then we’ll have to deal with all the hoopla about FL, MI and superdelegates.
If the early signs are correct, Clinton came through with her back against the wall. And if she comes all the way back in a convention decision, a Clinton/McCain campaign will send enough of the young voters home that it’ll just be another dull election year.
Hunter Thompson said “Politics will break your heart.” It’s true. I have no horse in this race, so my heart won’t be broken no matter which way it goes. But I do hate to see a younger generation disillusioned just as mine was after MLK and RFK were murdered. They’ll get over it eventually.
It’s just that ‘Yes We Can’t’ seems so 1970s.
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:45 am
hate to see a younger generation disillusioned just as mine was after MLK and RFK were murdered.
Holy crap, man. I haven’t seen the polls you reference, but get a grip, OK? I’m apparently in your generation and I don’t feel that way. Especially not after reading about some tin-horn, in-state Ohio poll about a March primary.
Suck it up.