The debate edge handed to Clinton: don’t confuse life support for a full recovery
Per Zogby, who shows Clinton moved from a 1 pt to 5 pt lead in PA:
Pollster John Zogby: “Undecideds are down to 8% and they have slowly begun to break for Clinton. Obama slipped in the one-day sample to only 40%. His lead in the eastern part of the state is still in double-digits but slipping, and his huge advantage among young voters is narrowing a bit. Clinton has a 39-point lead among Catholics and a 19 point lead among whites. She continues to get higher marks on ‘understanding Pennsylvania’ and handling the economy.”
As I predicted a 54%-46% win for Clinton two weeks ago, this shift to a 47% to 42% lead (8% undecided) is consistent with my expectations. If she carries 75% of the undecideds, that would yield a 53% to 44% outcome, just 1% off my prediction. And she needs 12% or greater to gain more than 3 or 4 delegates against Obama’s lead. (And remember, in mid-February, she led 52%-36% in the PA polls, a 16% lead.)
I’m not surprised that she’s taken a lead nationally, either. Gallup says it’s now 46% to 45% for Clinton. Compared to his up and down parameters of the past 3 weeks (see the chart), this represents a 4% drop for Obama, and Clinton hasn’t even reached the 46% high she’s had in that 3 week period, at times.
More relevant to the impact of the debate: Clinton gained 3% since then, while Obama dropped 3%. But as Zogby noted, in PA, 1% of the difference is caused by undecideds reaching a decision, so the debate’s impact is likely about a 5% shift overall.
Still, it’s hard for either to make any electability argument when they’re below 51%. As I expect Clinton will win PA, the impact of that could easily boost her to the 50%-51% region.
It took a verbal gaffe and the one-sided gotcha questions of a Clinton sycophant to achieve that, so at least this week, her supporters can be satisfied that any media bias tilted her way. But as I also predicted, I fully anticipate the numbers to flux right back as the NC and IN primaries loom just two weeks after. There, a 5% shift produces a tie in Indiana, and maintains a sizeable win for Obama in NC.
With Clinton throwing the kitchen sink at Obama, with the media joining in, at the end of those three primaries, Obama’s delegate lead margin could shift up or down by 5. All she’ll need after that is 85% of the vote in the final six primaries and she’ll catch up to Obama’s total.
Piece of cake.
Update: even with this revised 12 delegate gap close, Obama will be 125 or more delegates ahead. Short of her pulling an upset in NC, it doesn’t change my projections that she’ll never be closer than 90 delegates the rest of the way.
