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April 21, 2008

Al Giordano gives his final projection on PA

Try a 4.6% edge for Clinton, with a net gain of 4 delegates. His demographic estimates are interesting, too. Al’s been the best numbers cruncher on the toobz, bar none.

Comparing that to Drudge’s (likely made up) estimate of 11% and my own call for under 8%, this is going to be a wrenching night for Team Clinton.

After all, the last very reliable SUSA polls for the next pair of primaries offers:

Indiana: 50-45 for Obama

North Carolina: 49-39 for Obama (with all the other pollsters having this margin wider).

SUSA has Obama with a 10% lead in Oregon, too. And these four states represent 70% of the remaining delegates, leaving only 169 in all the others.

The most important math? After May 6th, Team Clinton’s treasury will be down to recycling soda cans.

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