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April 23, 2008

MSM Media continues to slant primary results io serve their financial self interests

Via the NY Times at 2:30 am Eastern time, here’s the MSM narrative, which is misleading:

Clinton Outduels Obama in Primary

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton scored a decisive victory over Senator Barack Obama on Tuesday in the Pennsylvania primary, giving her candidacy a critical boost as she struggles to raise money and persuade party leaders to let the Democratic nominating fight go on.

If Mrs. Clinton did not emerge from the bruising six-week campaign with a race-turning landslide — she still trails Mr. Obama in the popular vote and the delegate count — her victory nonetheless gives her a strong rationale for continuing her candidacy in spite of those Democrats who would prefer to coalesce around Mr. Obama.

Indeed, in her victory speech in Philadelphia on Tuesday night, Mrs. Clinton used the words “fight,” “fighter” and “fighting” repeatedly — not only to promise financially struggling Americans that she would protect them, but also to convey that she had the resolve and confidence to stay in the race.

As for Mr. Obama, the loss only hardened the determination of his advisers to overwhelm Mrs. Clinton’s campaign with his substantial financial advantage — he took in $42 million in March to her $21 million — and with the cold calculus that he is still solidly ahead in their pursuit of the 2,025 delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination. In his concession speech, he kept the focus on the presumptive Republican nominee, Senator John McCain, a subject Mrs. Clinton avoided in her address.

Incomplete returns from Pennsylvania showed Mrs. Clinton leading 55 percent to 45 percent, with her victory propelled by her strong performance among women, older voters and less affluent and less educated voters; among white union members with no college education, she won almost three-quarters of the vote, polling showed.

Even as she celebrated, Mrs. Clinton nodded to the stiff challenges ahead for her campaign, not the least of them Mr. Obama’s financial advantage. In her speech, she implored her supporters to log onto her fund-raising Web site and “and show your support tonight because the future of this campaign is in your hands.” (Campaign officials said late Tuesday that they were having their best night ever in fund-raising online, bringing in $2.5 million in less than four hours.)

Here’s the facts of the vote via the official state site, as of 2:30 am Eastern time:

Outstanding districts across the state, with 1.09% of the total state vote uncounted, shown below:

Western PA ….1 Pittsburgh district (Allegheny Co), 1 Clarion Co district, 3 Indiana Co districts, 2 McKean Co districts for 7 total.

Central PA ….13 Potter Co districts, 1 Adams Co district for 14 total.

Northeastern PA ….2 Lackawanna Co districts, 6 Pike Co districts, 1 Monroe Co district for 9 total.

Southeastern PA ….19 Chester Co districts, 7 Delaware Co districts, 5 Bucks Co districts, 40 Philadelphia Co districts for a total of 71.

So that’s 9,162 districts counted, 101 to go, and 66 of those are Philly suburbs that favored Obama by 55% or higher (Bucks was Clinton’s). The other 30 districts around the state were Clinton territory too.

So the gap at the official PA state site, currently says:

CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM) 1,232,401 … 54.3%
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM) 1,039,024 ….. 45.7%

That’s a 193,377 popular vote edge for Clinton and an 8.6% difference. With 2/3rds of the outstanding districts in Obama territory, both of those gaps should narrow more, so she definitely stayed in single digits and Obama likely retained his popular vote lead nationally, even counting Florida and Michigan.

Estimates of Clinton’s delegate count gain range between 6 and 13, far short of what she needed in PA. She’s still more than 150 pledged delegates behind.

What? They didn’t tell you that?

She trails in polling in 3 of the 9 remaining contests, and those states control 182 delegates. She leads per the polling in 3 of the remaining contests that control 134 delegates. In the 3 remaining primaries where polling is inconclusive or nonexistent, a mere 92 delegates await. So all she has to do is catch up to Obama in three states where she’s currently at least 10 pts behind, then win 150 of the 226 delegates in the other six primaries, which requires at least 32 point margins to do (about 66%-34%).

In short, as was first reported on blogs after Obama’s Wisconsin win, it’s mathematically nearly impossible for Clinton to match Obama’s delegate count. With every primary since that she’s failed to gain the broad margins needed, the margins needed grow even wider in all the remaining primaries.

In fact, that’s been the real fact of the primary season that the media has failed to report with EVERY contest after the February 5 Super Tuesday primaries, (where Obama ALSO gained more states and more delegates than Clinton did). He’s increased his delegate lead in 16 of 19 contests since. Clinton only gained delegates in Rhode Island, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and only Rhode Island’s 18 point gap was close to the broadening gaps she’s needed for the last 11 weeks.

Along the way, most of the media has not only ignored those critical facts but they’ve continually advanced Clinton’s arguments that the race should be decided by entirely different rules, they’ve advanced stories as ludicrous as Obama’s bowling skills and him flipping her off (which photo evidence disproved prior to their reports) and whether his lack of a flag lapel pin proved he was lacking in some critical character trait. And in debates, he’s been asked far more questions critical of such side issues than Clinton has been asked. Questions about their policy differences and their voting records have been given lesser attention with every passing debate, as the media magnifies the side issues that have zero impact on the needs of the public for changes in domestic and foreign policies.

And why does the broadcast media emphasize the inconsequential matters, grant credibility for Clinton proposals to change the rules mid-game, and never emphasize the nea