Look, I’ve been yelling about the need to crack down on Big Oil in the last two elections. Prices will drop considerably - despite what many claim - just as they did after the first Gulf War under Big Daddy Warbucks Bush. But when even Clinton’s supporters say her idea to suspend gas prices for the summer is a joke, well, it is. Only it’s more of a magic trick, and there is something up her sleeve. (For an excellent overview, read Steve Benen .)

Over the course of the summer, an average American would save $30 under the Clinton and McCain plans. But as they’d likely drive more, they’d lose that tiny gain. If you really want to save that thirty bucks, try this:

1) Don’t buy Exxon, Mobil, Chevron, Texaco gas. Stick with Arco and others that offer it cheaper. In my city, that will save more than the 18.4 cents per gallon that Clinton and McCain are offerring.

2) Drive less. Lowering demand will lower prices. And over a longer period.

3) Buy less things made of plastic and less chemical fertilizers. Most use petroleum products in their manufacture. So more lowered demand.

4) Walk a steady 30 minutes at least every other day. That’s about a mile and a half. More lowered demand, and better health, both saving you money and making you feel better, too.

5) End the Iraq War. Look at the ‘All Data’ time length option on the OIl Index chart. Note that the big upward push began precisely when the Iraq War was launched. It shows up on the Oil Service Sector Index, too, only a few months after the war began. And both charts are displaying the beginnings of the near vertical rise that comes from a ‘bubble’ forming. I was anticipating that speculative bubble and subsequent collapse to begin six to nine months before a Democratic president gets elected. Because that’s how speculators minds would work if they thought the war’s end was near.

But it would be nearly February before a new president could order a troop withdrawal to begin. So speculators could hang on till mid July. Or maybe, knowing such withdrawals will be paced over many months, they might sustain their speculation even longer. Either way, near the end of the bubble, look for fast-increasing prices. $4? No, closer to $5. And you’ll see 18 cents per gallon disappear in a week when it really gets ugly.

Of course, if it looks like McCain will win, that final bubble would not occur for years.

However, everyone’s mad at Big Oil and some people will bite on this silly idea as ‘better than nothing.’ Which is all Clinton’s after. Just convince 5% of the public and that could make the difference between winning or losing primaries in NC, IN and OR.

I’m not sure what McCain’s after, as his plan offers him no advantage that will be remembered by November. Per usual, the man still knows nothing about economics and little about winning national elections (except: be sure your opponents are bigger dolts, which is how he got this far).

Now, how can Obama gain back that tiny percentage of voters before next Tuesday? He needs an ad fast, and a better plan. It should include a vow to introduce legislation BEFORE the summer recess that will:

a) require oil company executives to be put under oath for Congressional hearings to investigate price manipulation charges.
b) seek the minutes of the secret energy committee meetings that the Vice President conducted before 9-11 to determine if discussion of Iraq’s oil fields was under consideration even then.
c) review tax breaks currently given to farmers providing corn and soy for ethanol production, as that has driven up food prices further at a time when hunger is growing nationally and abroad.
d) consider a targeted tax rebate to truckers and trucking firms to ease their costs and to lower the costs of food transport especially.
e) provide more fuel assistance subsidies to lower income families to offset heating and cooling costs for their homes.

Additionally, announce that, as President, within 30 days of taking office, he’ll appoint a Blue Ribbon Commmission that will include people from alternative energy industries, energy conservation programs, economists, home builders, automakers, and developers of alternative energy vehicles. And they’ll be tasked with the development of a National Energy Strategy that is both effective and cost efficient, with the goal of breaking our dependence on Middle East oil. And further, since states heavily invested in producing oil and coal supplies could face a negative impact from such changes, the plan would offer major tax incentives to new technology energy suppliers to locate their businesses in states like West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Louisiana and others, so they’d have new jobs to offset the old.

I’m sure there’s more that can be defined, but some short term relief coupled with smart longterm strategies is clearly the way to go. Such a plan does not have to set every specific in stone immediately. But it should define the specifics that he’ll ask the new commission to consider.

All the candidates have offered too little and tarried too long on energy policy. Now is the time for bold, aggressive moves. The sooner speculators see that serious change and reform is coming, the sooner prices will start coming down. It would be nice to see some real leadership emerge again to overcome shameless panhandling for votes without real reform.