Hillary ahead in North Carolina?
An Inside Advantage poll says she is, with a sizable 14% undecided.
In PA, they were 2.3% off, in TX just 1%, in MS it missed by 7%, in VA it missed by 14%, and that’s the only states it’s done since Super Tuesday, almost 3 months ago. Based on that, it looks like they under-sample African American voters in states where they make up more than 20% of the electorate. Which North Carolina is.
As I noted yesterday, the race has moved much closer, as the SUSA poll made clear. I don’t believe he lost 7% in one day. Though some in the media continue to blather on about Wright, I’d guess he’s bottomed out on that one. It’ll be the undecideds coming in that determine whether he’ll rebound or not. Look for polls beginning Saturday to get a clearer picture of NC and IN, using yesterday’s SUSA poll (which gave him a 5% lead) as the benchmark to compare to.
National polls suggest he’s begun a small rebound.
Update: Mason Dixon says it’s Obama by 7.
May 1st, 2008 at 4:59 am
It’s all about the (super)delegates. Even if he tanks and loses NC (and it’ll probably be close) as well as IN, it is likely that the two candidates will split the delegates approx. 50-50. Meanwhile, the steady trickle of SDs to Obama continues unabated. In fact, it has picked up the pace since PA.