Polling numbers drive me nuts lately as there’s often contradictory ones released the same day. Getting past the headlines, however, is the fun part. Consider the accompanying story about today’s Gallup/USA Today poll, titled Poll: Flap over pastor hurts Obama

Would you be more or less likely to vote for [candidate] because of their association with [perceived villain]?

65% say it would not affect their vote or make them more likely to vote for Obama, due to his association with whatsisname.

66% say it would not affect their vote or make them more likely to vote for Hillary, due to her association with her husband.

Really! Go read it yourself. In both cases, 33% are less likely to vote for Hillary or Barack because of Reverend Wright and Bill Clinton. So will the broadcast media pundits start grilling Hillary repeatedly about her judgment in maintaining her marriage with Bill for 30+ years? Will she be asked to repudiate him?

But only 61% say it would not affect their vote or make them more likely to vote for John McCain, due to his association with George Bush, while 38% view that negatively. So Bush is the biggest villain of the three, but only by 5%.

The more troublesome part of the poll shows that Hillary’s favorability rating has ranged from 48% to 53% this year, and Obama’s has ranged from 58% to 62% this year. Currently Obama’s got a 58% rating and Clinton’s at 52%. The sucky part is that McCain’s ranged from 54% to 67%. He’s currently at 62%. It indicates that he’s not being targeted very effectively by the Democratic candidates,

My smart-ass sister insists it’ll be impossible to draw the white male vote away from McCain, because he’s got a cute blonde wife who distributes mass quantities of beer. As a white guy, I’m offended by that suggestion. I’ve always preferred whiskey after the results of the elections are known.

But the major media continues to beat the dead horse about Obama’s former pastor, just in case you haven’t heard about it yet. And they completely neglect what the polls make clear: 33% to 38% would prefer that we elect presidents who have no associations with actual humans.

But wait, there’s more polls out! CBS News titles their report: CBS Poll: Support For Obama Rebounds and the subhead states: In Wake Of Controversy Over Former Pastor, Illinois Senator Builds Lead Over McCain, Clinton

On one key measure, Obama has seen a big reversal since his denunciation of Wright’s remarks on Tuesday. He now leads presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in the hypothetical fall contest by eleven points, 51 percent to 40 percent. That compares to a tied match-up in a CBS News/New York Times poll that was released last Wednesday.

Positive assessments of how Obama has handled the situation with Wright are also reflected by a continued lead over fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton in his battle for their party’s nomination. Among Democratic primary voters (those who have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama’s lead over Clinton has increased — he now leads Clinton by twelve points, 50 percent to 38 percent. That’s up from his eight point lead in the poll released just a few days ago.

Clinton’s lead over McCain is also up to 12%, but among Democrats, she’s favored by 1 pt over Obama. It’s his support from Independents that clearly give him the edge:

Independents back Obama in a head to head against McCain, but in a Clinton-McCain contest independents support McCain by five points. However, more Democrats say they will vote Clinton in the fall than say they will vote for Obama.

And then comes the kick in the ass:

The poll shows that almost eight in ten Democratic primary voters would support either Obama or Clinton against McCain in November. Among Democratic primary voters who support Obama now, 70 percent say they would vote for Clinton in November if she is the Democratic nominee. Among those who support Clinton now, 60 percent say they would vote for Obama if he is the nominee.

So 10% of Hillary’s voters will be stubborn and pout if she loses even more losier than she’s already lost. Kids these days…
tsk tsk.

The poll also points out that his support has rebounded to about 1% from the support he had before Wright’s name was first heard.

And for the finalew, here’s the latest from Zogby. It indicates Obama will win North Carolina and he’s a touch ahead in Indiana. And in both states, the internals show he’s breaking through the age demographics that formerly favored Clinton.

Now based on the trends that Zogby’s demonstrates, it looks like Obama will win North Carolina by at least 6% and will win Indiana by 2%. Which means he’d widen his delegate margin by at least 5 delegates in NC and they’d split evenly in IN.

There’ll be more polls later today that will confirm or disprove Zogby’s. But the bottom line is that people are completely fed up with the Wright story, except the part where Orville and Wilbur start to fly.