Polls and Predictions
Bill Clinton has been pushing for an 80-20 or 90-10 win in WV and Obama has accepted 80-20 as the standard in the expectations game. Thus I predict a 71-28-1 split, with a 12 delegate Clinton pickup. However, enough super delegates will have come in between yesterday and Thursday to offset her gain completely.
What the win will achieve for Clinton is one more week to push for donations to reduce her campaign debts a notch or two. But I still say they’re headed for a Memorial Day weekend with this race settled.
All indications suggest to me that many superdelegates aren’t shy about announcing now so it’s far more likely Obama is choreographing the timing of their announcements for the mutual benefit of both campaigns.
Update: Poblano, whose models have proven more accurate than most major pollsters, says a 39 pt Clinton victory (with 4% for Edwards) so that must be around 67-28, with a 10 delegate net gain for Clinton. Al Giordano weighs in with 69-31 and a 12 delegate win.
I utilized the latest (Suffolk) poll which had it at 60-24-4 and figured the remaining 12% would break 8-4 to Clinton, which would be 68-28 for a 40 pt lead. I then figured 3 of 4 Edwards voters would shift to Clinton with 1% remaining for him.
But several more superdelegates came in for Obama today. The growing tide I predicted after NC and IN continues. I believe Obama’s up about 9-1 this week already, so if Clinton picks up 12 delegates today, that’ll be surpassed by Obama’s weeklong superdelegate haul by tomorrow.
And, btw, despite the WV jokes, I do think this is required reading. Obama’s comments to a SF fundraising crowd distilled things too far, as this demonstrates. I do think the author’s a little over-generous because there are some divides here that aren’t going to be overcome for decades. But it’s important this corner and every corner of the country not be written off. In fact, were I Obama, I’d propose the biggest tax credits to alternate energy industries that site themselves in the coal counties of WV and PA, granting these folks another way besides a couple of centuries of coal as the major occupation. That would be the biggest step the region would ever be provided and from fresh prosperity, many other advances would grow.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:31 am
[…] Polls and Predictions: “I predict a 71-28-1 split, with a 12 delegate Clinton pickup. However, enough super delegates will have come in between yesterday and Thursday to offset her gain completely.” (American Street) […]
May 13th, 2008 at 10:41 pm
[…] So how’d I do? I predicted: I utilized the latest (Suffolk) poll which had it at 60-24-4 and figured the remaining 12% would break 8-4 to Clinton, which would be 68-28 for a 40 pt lead. I then figured 3 of 4 Edwards voters would shift to Clinton with 1% remaining for him. […]