Electability Watch
Obama vs. McCain by the numbers:
There are 247 days left of the Bush administration.
There are 171 days to Election Day.
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The rest of the numbers are based on the most recent poll taken in each state, with Obama matched against McCain.
Electoral votes of Obama vs. McCain where either is ahead by double digits:
Obama ct dc hi il ma md me mn nj ny or ri vt wa = 142 electoral votes
McCain al ar ga id ks ky la ms nh ok tn tx ut wv wy = 131 votes
Electoral votes of Obama vs. McCain where either is ahead by 1% to 9%:
Obama ca co de ia in nd pa = 109 votes
McCain ak az fl mi mo mt nc ne nm nv oh sc sd va wi = 156 votes
Electoral votes of Obama vs. McCain where either has ANY lead (combining the two previous number sets)
Obama: 251 votes
McCain: 287 votes
11:00 am Update: Rasmussen came in with a new poll today: Obama now leads McCain by 9 pts in NM. That pushes the numbers to 256 Obama, 282 McCain, so a shift of one state with at least 14 electoral votes is all Obama needs and all three in the next category below meet that.
Adding the electoral votes to Obama’s total from states where McCain leads by 1%: 251 + 64 = 315 votes which is more than Bush won in 2000 or 2004. This would be the third best performance by a Democrat since 1964 (11 elections) and the 4th best by a Democrat since 1944 (16 elections).
(McCain leads by 1% in FL MI and OH)
Is Obama electable? He has 170 days to change the minds of 1% in one or two states, to win.
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Adding the electoral votes to Obama’s total from states where McCain leads by 3%: 315 + 26 = 341 votes
(McCain leads by 3% in NE SC and VA).
Adding the electoral votes to Obama’s total from states where McCain leads by 4%: 341 + 13 = 354 votes
(McCain leads by 4% in SD and WI).
Adding the electoral votes to Obama’s total from states where McCain leads by 5%: 354 + 8 = 362 votes
(McCain leads by 5% in MT and NV).
Adding the electoral votes to Obama’s total from states where McCain leads by 6%: 362 + 16 = 378 votes
(McCain leads by 6% in MO and NM).
Adding the electoral votes to Obama’s total from states where McCain leads by 7%: 378 + 15 = 393 votes
(McCain leads by 7% in NC). Among Democrats, this would be the second best result since 1944 (16 elections) with only LBJ doing better in 1964.
Is Obama electable?
May 17th, 2008 at 5:03 am
I have a pet theory about electability that holds true for all presidential elections reaching back to 1900: whoever wins a majority of the 10 states bordering the Mississippi River wins the election.
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi.
Will it hold true this year? I have no idea. So many of these traditional rules no longer apply — e.g., to win the presidency you have to win the New Hampshire primary. This year we’re hearing a lot about the importance of West Virginia to Democratic nominees for president. In prior years we’ve heard a similar admonition about the importance of Ohio to Republican nominees.
But let’s use your yardstick to analyze the Mississippi River basin states. Caution: we’re so far out from November (or even August) that the polls today might be meaningless.
That said…
Of those states, Obama is ahead by double digits in two: Illinois and Minnesota.
McCain is ahead by double digits in five: Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Kentucky and Tennessee.
Obama by single digits in one: Iowa
McCain by single digits in two: Missouri and Wisconsin
So, as it stands now, the region breaks breaks for McCain, 7-3. Clearly, Obama has his work cut out for him.
Which states can Obama pick off to at least get to 6-4? Well, Missouri and Wisconsin are the obvious targets. And how about them Razorbacks? Can Arkansas be convinced to vote for Obama (with or without Hillary on the ticket?) Kentucky is probably a lost cause but Tennessee is doable — and Gov. Phil Bredesen has been my stealth pick for VP from the get-go. Louisiana and Mississippi have been in the news recently (Childers and my new Congressman Cazayoux) but I seriously doubt either state votes for Obama in the end.
Obama needs three of those other four states (AR, TN, MO, WI) to make it happen. Can Obama pull it off? Or is this, at least, the year when the region breaks the for the loser? Stay tuned.
May 17th, 2008 at 8:52 am
I think there’s a “Hillary factor” built into any polls right now. That