For people unfamiliar with Oregon politics, being a political insider here is not anything like being an insider in Washington DC. For one thing, our state legislature only meets for a few months every other year. It’s a true citizen legislature, the pay is quite low, so most of the people who run for the state lege do so out of a genuine commitment to public service. There’s just not that much power, fame or fortune attached to it.

The second thing to note is that Portland is the liberal straw that stirs the drink. For a presidential race, it gets joined by liberal Eugene, Ashland, Corvallis and moderately Democratic Salem giving our electoral votes to Dem presidential nominees since 1988 and a string of Democratic governors that goes back through the 70s, with only one exception. But for statewide offices, put a Portland liberal up against a liberal from Eugene and Portland, because of its size, will usually elect its homey.

Oregon also has a history of electing moderates to the Senate. Examples include Hatfield, a Republican who was also very anti-war, Packwood, a pro-choice Republican, and Wyden, our current Senator, who’s fairly moderate on a number of issues and liberal on some. He’s paired with Gordon Smith, a high tech CEO who comes across as affable and talks a moderate game, but his voting record proves him to be a Bush rubberstamp, who distances himself from the prez in re-election years. It’s that two-faced game that makes him a slippery weasel to take down, because many voters’ memories are short. But his record on Iraq and our slipping economy make him an especially good target this cycle. And the DSCC has had him at the top of its target list for the past two years.

But that’s where it gets complicated. The Democratic primary for that seat has a liberal activist with a clever capacity to play off his shortness (he’s 4′ 9″ I think) and his missing hand. Steve Novick has been leading by a small edge in statewide polls, and his positions are the sort that I’m normally attracted to. But there’s also a woman from Eugene who’s shown some strength in polls that forced the media to reconsider after initially excluding her from debates. I could, in good conscience, vote for her, too. However, it’s the most embarrassingly rich campaign I’ve seen in my life as there’s a third candidate, Jeff Merkley, also running for the seat.

Merkley is currently the Speaker of the House in the state lege, so he carries the tag as the insider. Yet when I lived in East Portland, from 2001-04, he was my state legislator and I found him to be responsive, solid on every issue near and dear to my heart, approachable, communicative, and friendly. The only knock I heard anyone ever say was that he was such a straight arrow that some found that a bit boring.

He has, however, proven effective. So I just couldn’t see how anyone else could do a better job as a rep, other than championing some way left pipe dream, like legalizing marijuana or turning Oregon into Ecotopia. He’s not a Kucinich but he’s not far from a Wellstone.

One of our founding American Streeters, Jeff Alworth, lays out the case for Merkley at Blue Oregon:

Novick and Merkley differ on almost no issues–both are great progressives and both have long records of fighting for progressive causes. Merkley is a better bet as a senator because of his impressive record at pushing legislation through as the Oregon Speaker of the House–but I know that doesn’t convince everyone. So here’s the clincher: he’s the guy who will beat Gordon Smith. As we have seen in recent polls, Smith is very weak–he’s polling below 50% against both Dems, and his approval has been in steady decline for months. His seat is ready for the plucking.

The evidence that Merkley’s the best candidate to run against him is clear. The election won’t be decided in Multnomah, Lane, and Benton Counties–voters there will back the Dem. It will be decided in rural and swing counties like Deschutes, Jackson, and Marion. The Dem doesn’t have to carry these counties to win, but he must be competitive. Steve Novick has run a fantastic campaign, but he’s run as a classic Portland liberal. The first order of business was to beat Merkley, and Steve has needed urban liberals to tip the scales. But where does he go in the general? Merkley has run his campaign with an eye toward Smith, and it will show in his rural support.

Jeff didn’t cover realtor Candy Neville, who’s also quite impressive on many issues. In a poll a couple of months ago, Novick led with 24%, Neville had 12% support and Merkley was just behind at 11%. But now that name recognition has grown during the political ad season, a SUSA poll last week had Merkley on top at 31%, with Novick at 27% and Neville well back at 11%. As mail-in voting’s already well underway here, this race will go to Merkley or Novick.

Merkley is well regarded on education issues. Novick appeals to environmentalists. Based on all the factors mentioned thus far, I’d say Novick might be a smidgen better. And now that the DSCC has jumped in to back Merkley, my anti-establishment inclinations would normally side with Novick. And yet, I can’t be any more certain that Merkley’s the best choice for several additional reasons.

1) As an employee, when I do my job well, put in extra effort and I’m certain my employer benefits from my work, I hope to be rewarded with merit pay increases and promotions. So as Merkley’s ‘employer’ I feel he’s earned the same. Maybe I could hire the sharp new guy but what would that say to my other employees. “You made no mistakes, but I’m letting you go because maybe this guy can do better?” Nope, that’s a lousy way to treat a trusted employee. It’s not like settling for a Blue Dog Democrat. I trust Merkley to prove capable on all the big issues and expect he’ll prove more liberal than our Senator Wyden.

2) The DSCC has it right this time. Barack Obama supports him, too. I don’t know who Clinton supports but I suspect she’d be very supportive too. And his pending opponent in November, Gordon Smith, has been running very negative ads against Merkley in recent weeks. That says Merkley’s the one he most fears.

3) Jeff Alworth, Mary Ratcliffe (of Pacific Views and The Left Coaster) and several others are folks I used to meet with in Portland for beers and to conspire against the Empire. Jeff’s a big environmentalist and a very sharp guy. If he’s reached the conclusion that Merkley’s the best choice, that further affirms and influences me.

4) And I know for certain that Merkley’s got a good feel for the people he employs. I’ve personally never met Preemptive Karma blogger Carla Axtman, but we used to email each other now and then. And then my kid ran into a patch of awful luck and Carla offered help that was unsolicited, unexpected and her initiative was a major morale booster. Without setting my eyes on her, I know she’s a stellar person because of that. And Merkley hired her as his blogger and PR advocate. That, by itself, greatly enhanced my respect for Merkley.

I remain committed to two races above all this year. McCain must not win the White House and Jeff Merkley has to replace Gordon Smith. I gave up my political activism after cynicism and con