For Clinton’s supporters, the question is about a joint ticket in spite of any party elder’s admonitions.

The next question many more Democrats have is whether Obama can win in November. He beat Clinton in 29 states plus DC and in all the US territories except Puerto Rico. She won 19 contests, plus Florida where neither campaigned, plus Michigan, where Obama’s name wasn’t on the ballot. He won more independents and more Republicans in any state with an open primary. The doubters know there’s a lot more white voters than black in the general election. Yet though the percentages differed, that was true in the primaries and white women were the largest demographic of all, which was to Clinton’s advantage in most states. Obama won a majority of the popular vote despite that.

He also faced more negative debate questions, overcame associations that provoked dips in his popularity and overcame the bear that has plagued presidential contests since the Civil Rights era - racism - by winning seven of the eleven states of the old Confederacy. Eight, if you count the fact that he won the majority of the pledged delegates in Texas while losing the popular vote there by under 2.5%.

Popular vote claims remain disputable and have no real bearing on anything anyways. Just ask the guy skippy recommends about that.

That region remains Obama’s biggest obstacle in the general election where most analysts suggest he can win no more than three states. But can he win the Presidency? He currently is behind in all eleven of those states but is ahead in state-by-state polling in other regions, providing him more than 270 electoral votes.

Yes we can … elect him. He won just under half (7) of the last 16 contests, but in that three month period, Clinton only closed the pledged delegate gap by 41. She was 164 pledged delegates behind him before the most successful run of her primary season and could close only 25% of that gap.

Clinton’s determination improved him as a candidate. He already had the best funded and best managed campaign going for him. Now McCain faces more money, more team talent and a better campaigner. And there may be no more hidden associations and potential scandals to exploit. In fact, during that final three months, both Clinton and McCain have chosen to adopt a more populist style and tone to their campaigning because of Obama and on McCain, much of it - from his visits to ‘forgotten Americans’ like the ones he spoke to in Selma, to last night’s speech in Kenner, Louisiana - has looked rather lame.

He has tried inviting Obama to a joint tour of Baghdad and now he’s trying to bait him again by inviting him to a series of townhall debates through the summer. That’s the only venue where McCain performs well, not in standard debates or in giving speeches before crowds. Team Obama won’t let those townhalls happen without modifying the terms.

But back to the immediate hurdle Obama has to leap is the question of whether Clinton’s the best choice for VP. She’s made it increasingly clear she’d really like the job, though she’s given no public indication that she’ll rebel against a lesser role and draw her supporters into such a divisive tussle. I can’t predict the outcome of that frank and private discussion to come. Clinton could choose to play hardball but it poses greater risks to her future political career than it does to Obama’s, so an educated guess says she’ll steer clear if he has a substantive leadership role to offer that also interests her. I’m more inclined to believe he’ll pursue Sam Nunn (now new and improved!), Wes Clark, Gary Hart or Chuck Hagel for VP, though any of them - including Clinton - would also be a plus as Secretary of State. And don’t overlook Chris Dodd. (h/t to Al Giordano)

Though her legislative supporters are offering to aid the effort, publicly at least, Obama’s already handed off the task to a VP search team of his own.

So what evidence remains that Obama can win? It’s still in the math, mateys.

Yesterday’s national Gallup poll had McCain ahead 46%-45%. Today’s Rasmussen poll has Obama ahead 47%-45%.

Nate Silver (aka: Poblano) at FiveThirtyEight.com is a baseball statistician who’s created a statistical model for predicting the primaries this year. His accuracy has beat the national pollsters in most of the primaries he’s covered.

You’d have to be a statistics addict to fully comprehend how his system works, but a couple of things are fairly straightforward:

1) The second number in the ranges listed below is a method of averaging multiple polls. He weights each poll based on the accuracy of the pollster, the recentness of the poll and the number of respondents polled to arrive at this AverageMargin.

2) The first number in the ranges below is his Regression Estimate Margin (I shortened it to RegressionMargin). This is far more complicated to compile as it also weights for numerous other demographic variables. Religion, age, ethnicity are just a few of these factors and there’s also a factor for how the state has voted in past elections, plus other variables.

3) He updates his numbers daily.

In compiling this list, I used his Regression number to list them in this specific order, which begins with the most Democratic likely outcome to the most Republican likely outcome. As it’s comm