Team Obama floats VP names, but should consider some more
Among the nearly 20 names under review currently:
Retired Gen. James Jones (former Marine-turned-NATO Supreme Allied Commander), Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, John Edwards, Evan Bayh, Kathleen Sebelius, Ted Strickland, Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Jim Webb, Bill Nelson, Jack Reed, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Tom Daschle, and Sam Nunn.
What does the list tell you?
There’s FOUR Virginians on the list. That clearly signals Obama’s going to run hard to get that state. Clinton, Kerry, Reed, Biden and Dodd come from reliably blue states. Sebelius comes from a reliably red state and it’s a longshot for Bayh’s state, too. Nelson (FL), Jones (MO), Edwards (NC), Daschle (ND) and Strickland (OH) are the other five they may feel they have a shot at, based on recent polling.
This suggests that the vetters assume Obama will carry every state that Kerry got, since there’s no-one from PA, NJ, WI, and MI, where polling shows tight contests ahead. Other swing states notably absent: NM, CO, NV, and MT.
In fact, the absence of any Westerners on the list (sorry, ND and MO don’t qualify) is the biggest surprise of all, as Obama has to depend on those states to deliver in case OH or FL don’t come through. There’s no Schweitzer or Tester (MT), no Hart or Udall (CO), no Kitzhaber nor Patty Murray (OR and WA). Also, Feinstein (CA), Feingold (WI), Richardson or Tom Udall (NM) rated no mention… yet. Neither did retired Senator Bob Graham, a very popular Floridian with solid national security credentials who opposed the AUMF in Iraq. Nor did Wes Clark.
Neither did any Republican, like Hagel, Snowe, Chafee, or Specter. (The names I mention aren’t necessarily folks I support, but seem like plausible ones he’d consider.)
So unless they plan to float a few more yet, the betting, based on the numerical odds, favors a Virginian getting the nod. As they have till at least mid-July to narrow the list to two or three that they can do a full background check on in the final month before the convention, I’m hoping this is just the first group they plan to float. Of the first group of names, I find Edwards the least plausible as his pull in NC would likely only be visible at the top of the ticket, as 2004 demonstrated. Kerry, to me, is the most intriguing choice because nobody I know even considered that. But he definitely proved to be pretty popular in 2004, possibly one slow response away from a winner, so I don’t see any negative to preclude him as Obama’s backup.
Still, I suspect a swingstater will prevail.
June 11th, 2008 at 6:42 am
Where is Wesley Clark, for Christ’s sake.
June 11th, 2008 at 10:44 am
What Retired Catholic said! I guess they figure that have their own SACEUR, so don’t need one who supported Clinton. With the greatest respect for General Jones, not also considering Wes Clark would be supremely short-sided.