I may be the least surprised at the choice of Joe Biden to be Obama’s second. I predicted as much in a contest at Blue Oregon two weeks ago. And when Steve Clemons beat the pack in naming Biden yesterday around 4 pm Eastern, I picked up and passed on that info because Clemons has always been a good miner of inside sources.

Here’s my reasoning why it would be Biden prior to Clemon’s revelation.

1) Hillary was likely an option long after Obama-fans had ruled her out, for multiple reasons. But there remained two things she could not overcome: her husband has become a polarizing flashpoint that energizes the GOP base and - unlike Biden, quite frankly, she wasn’t a white male. (More on that in a minute).

2) Richardson was out because of the strength of the Clintons. To the Hillary fans still angry with Obama, choosing him would have made that alienation permanent.

3) Most Senators he could have chosen would lower the number of Dem Senators he could count on. So the only safe picks there had to come from the bluest states. Based on the names floated, that meant Dodd and Biden, for the most part. I also considered the rather hawkish Feinstein held some potential, as any woman chosen would have to have a longer record of service than Hillary, just as a practical matter. Yet for parts of the country where Obama’s trying to make inroads (the Midwest and West, mostly), both California and New England are considered too liberal, no matter what Feinstein’s record showed.

4) For swing state captures, the states with more than 5 electoral votes that Obama has the best chance of capturing include CO, MI, OH, MO, VA, FL, yet no great option was available from most of those states. The exception was VA, with Kaine. But once Warner became the keynote speaker, it seemed like that was the clearest signal that Kaine wouldn’t be his pick. And ultimately choosing Kaine could be perceived as pandering from a point of weakness.

5) Sebelius I ruled out for multiple reasons. Most of them boil down to weakness as a campaigner. She lacks high name recognition, is somewhat colorless and reminds me of the Church Lady, but without the vim and verve.

6) Bayh would mean the loss of a Democratic Senate seat.

So Biden seemed the best fit. Next to Hillary, the highest name recognition. Experienced foreign policy guy and judiciary expert. Seasoned. Enough of a village insider to aid as a legislative liaison. Very strong as an advocate of women and treating gay folks as equals. Pretty solid environmentally. A white male who appeals to that demographic, which actually will still matter this year. A solid marriage to a woman who’s a clear asset on her own. And holds some appeal to seniors, and Catholics.

As an election watcher longtime, I would say he’ll be a formidable debater, is witty and cheerful and even passes the dubious test of a decent guy to have a beer with. Ultimately, nearly all the downsides come from weighing him from a pro-liberal perspective. In the primaries, I considered him and Clinton to be the two most conservative and the two I’d have to hold my nose to vote for had either won the nomination. He supported the AUMF, with some reservations but quickly became a vocal critic of Bush’s decisions there. He supported expanded wiretapping. And the Bankruptcy Bill. And is too pro-corporate, too much the Beltway insider, too much the anti-drug warrior.

Plus, he occasionally is prone to make a verbal gaffe when trying to be clever.

The old charge of plagiarizing a college paper is now a largely inconsequential matter compared to the types of negatives the nation has seen in Bush, Cheney, McCain, and virtually any Republican in memory for the past two decades.

So Obama’s move to the center is bolstered by this pick and remains the challenge that liberals have grown accustomed to: we’re taken for granted because who else can we vote for that won’t aid the election of McCain?

As an election analyst, I do think he strengthen’s Obama’s odds of winning. As a progressive, I quote Peggy Lee: “Is that all there is?” And the race is on.

And I’ll reiterate my remaining predictions: McCain is still best served making his pick with the electoral college in mind. That rules out the more personable Pawlenty and keeps in play the two top anticipated choices: Portman (OH) and Romney (MI). And I expect McCain will time his announcement to step directly on Obama’s victory speech at the convention, so late Thursday night or early Friday morning is when he’ll announce that.

But then, I never got into the drama of who the VP would be on either side. I can make reasonable guesses and figured Biden, Clinton and Bayh were the three on the shortest list by being the three most conservative.

Now comes the circus part of the campaign kickoff where I fully expect to hear at least four excellent speeches. It marks the beginning of the end of any remaining McCain momentum in the polls And three weeks from now, McCain will start seeing it, will start losing it, and will feel compelled to make it an ugly mudfest the rest of the way… to no avail.
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