The press treatment of Sarah Palin remains markedly different than the way they treated Hillary Clinton. Not only is the national media’s anti-Clinton bias as strong as it ever was, but its habit of allowing Republicans to lie with impunity is also consistent with its record of the past 16 years.

Of all the major media oulets, only McClatchy (formerly Knight Ridder outlets) remains the exception to the rule. Some MSNBC pundits, USA Today and a few journalists here and there are not hopelessly devoted to act as conduits for lies and half-truths of the Republican presidential ticket.

Still, the Stupid Season does seem stupider than usual for those Republicans and fake reporters who think our American lives are a game.

Despite the despair that promotes within the ranks of advocates for progressive, just and pragmatic government leadership, even the press can’t lift their losing ticket above a few cold hard facts. American families are feeling real pain. Which puts the Misery Indexes back in play.

.

.

.

Since the Great Depression, inflation rates have been a very reliable predictor of the outcome of presidential race outcomes. Rates between 3.20% and 3.50% produce races too difficult to call. Lower usually favors the party in power. Higher usually favors the party out of power.

Inflation rate in Oct of presidential election years

1932 (-10.74%) FDR elected
1936 +2.19%, FDR reelected
1940 +0.00%, FDR reelected
1944 +1.72%, FDR reelected

1948 +6.09%, Truman elected (an exceptional year)
1952 +1.91%, Ike elected (an exceptional year)
1956 +2.23%, Ike reelected
1960 +1.36%, JFK elected (an exceptional year)
1964 +0.97%, LBJ elected
1968 +4.75%, Nixon elected
1972 +3.42%, Nixon reelected
1976 +5.46%, Carter elected
1980 +13.29%, Reagan elected
1984 +4.26%, Reagan reelected (an exceptional year)
1988 +4.25%, GHWBush elected (an exceptional year)
1992 +3.20%, Clinton elected
1996 +2.99%, Clinton reelected
2000 +3.45%, Bush elected (disputed election)
2004 +3.19%, Bush reelected

[Link to those numbers]

.

.

Consider the exceptions.

In 1948, the greatest historical upset in US history occurred. The rationale provided was a hard campaign by Truman versus the aloof one run by Dewey, who rarely mentioned Truman by name. Also, inflation was not on the minds of most voters of the time.

In 1952, with no incumbent, the Red scare was in full blossom, with Joe McCarthy leading the charge. That, government corruption and a long desultory Korean War had a popular war hero running against the Governor of Illinois. Sounds awfully similar to today? Except today, the war and corruption belongs to the Republicans. And McCain’s hero status is well below that of Ike. Still, there may be lessons for Obama in this race if he doesn’t prove convincing as a leader on foreign policy. But note that the race didn’t have HIGH inflation as a factor, either.

In 1960, it was low inflation again that should have bolstered Nixon’s run. And the late campaigning for him by the popular Ike did make it nearly a tie. Once again, however, this was a low inflation year, not directly relevant to 2008 in any way. So consider the high inflation exceptions.

In 1984, as a popular incumbent, Reagan had seen inflation fall from a peak of 14.76% in mid-1980, to 11.83% in the month he was inaugurated. So 4.26% at re-election was historically high but represented a huge improvement to the public of that time.

In 1988, it was virtually the same percentage as 1984, GHWBush was riding the ongoing popularity of Reagan, and signs of turmoil in the USSR were profound. A better managed Bush campaign than Dukakis had, and the Willie Horton politics of race, sealed the deal for Bush, though some dissatisfaction with the economy existed, most notably, a rising number of homeless people.

Despite all that, the only major exception for a race with HIGH inflation was Truman’s in 1948. For 1984 and 1988, we could simply expand our predictor to say 3.20% to 4.25% means an election could go either way. That would eliminate both years as exceptions, leaving only the upset of 1948.

.

.

Inflation as of 7/2008 = 5.60%.

Gas prices are falling, so will that drop to 4.25% or below in October? That’s very doubtful. Typical monthly changes rarely exceed 0.3%, so 4.60% - 4.70% is more likely. Coupled with one of the most unpopular presidents in US history, and with what may become the highest unemployment rate in the 21st century, that simply doesn’t bode well for McCain.

From David Lightman and Kevin G. Hall at McClatchy, yesterday:

WASHINGTON — Just weeks before the government’s fiscal year ends Sept. 30, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday projected a near-record federal budget deficit of $407 billion, sharply higher than White House projections six weeks ago and more than double last year’s figure.

Mammoth federal-budget deficits feed inflation, make America dependent on foreign lenders, cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars in interest payments on the growing national debt and drain capital savings from more productive investments.

However, while all the economic signals heavily favor Obama, the only historical intangibles remain the race and gender cards and the perception that he might be weak on foreign policy.

I think the latter will prove the easiest to dispel and if he sounds a mite hawkish in the weeks ahead, that’s more of a plus than some progressives will think. His race mainly means he can’t count on much support in the South. Carrying VA or FL or both will count as a definite plus and his polling in both continues to be an extremely positive sign that has to worry McCain.

The Palin factor is not simply a gender play on McCain’s part, but it also is a Western strategy designed to counter Obama’s expansion there. Libertarian reformers and mavericks independent of party play well in the West. The best strategy for countering her impact remains her views on reproductive rights, which are hardly Libertarian. Being viewed as anti-environment can hurt her there, as well. Her very weak foreign policy experience remains a harder target to hit so long as McCain displays no signs of ill health, simply because voters still give all Republicans too much benefit of the doubt on national defense.

.

.

CONCLUSION

Ultimately, the evidence remains strong that a bad economy trumps all the other factors, so a state by state comparison of these misery indexes will serve as useful predictors. That’s why I remain convinced that NH is the Kerry state McCain has the best - and perhaps only - chance of winning back.

With gas prices due for their seasonal decline, that’s likely to reduce the inflation. The only way that decline can be accelerated to a point useful to McCain is if Bush accelerates troop departures from Iraq. Looking at the gas price chart, that should bounce back up some once it nears $3.25/gal, so I’m skeptical that $3.25 will drop the inflation index below 4.50% by October.

High unemployment and high inflation are the biggest barriers to McCain’s election, and there’s nothing he can do to influence them. So long as Obama hammers the weak Republican economy and demonstrates a tough line against terrorists and governments hostile to US interests, coupling both with a strong defense of womens’ choices, he’ll remain the heavy favorite to win this election. He possesses the superior ground organization, too, which further enhances his odds.

As bloggers and activists, the most common questions we should be asking for the next seven weeks is “how’s your wallet doing?” Big Oil’s taxes made Palin popular in Alaska, but elsewhere its prices remain the biggest contributor to the misery indexes that undermine McCain.

There remains one downside. The housing bubble collapse, the bills from the war on Iraq and these charts suggest no president nor the Fed will have much luck putting a big dent in the misery. It doesn’t bode well for the majority controlling Congress in 2010, nor for the incumbent president in 2012. An incumbent who can tame the misery, perhaps in his fourth year, will be justly rewarded if he does. And wrongfully punished for what President Bush and his Congressional rubberstamps will be costing us all for years.

(Btw, speaking of the woes and realities of economics, have you considered this?)