Ten points Obama is up, 2 higher than I predicted. But the article accompanying draws attention to other campaign snapshots that don’t serve as apt comparatives. Clinton, Gore and Carter represent ‘recent’ but they don’t reflect the electorate’s concerns.

Look, Bush is polling against 1952. Our leading financiers are saying the economy’s comparable to the 1929-41 era. As an amateur historian, I’ve been guilty of making comparisons based on campaigns from recent memory but more and more, I’m seeing cracks in the ‘usual’ perspective that fall outside of anything I’ve experienced in my 55 years. Consider:

1) Nobody in the country can any longer predict the impact race will have on this campaign. Much of the country has advanced well beyond the thinking that predominated 46 years, though pockets of slow evolution exist. Perhaps a white e Democrat with Obama’s strategies, demeanor and skills could have a popular vote blowout result like occurred in 1964. Perhaps no white Democrat has the same strategies, demeanor and skills to do as well as Obama has, and maybe that matters more than race does or ever will again.

2) Lesser but serious economic peril occurred in 1980, where Reagan blew out Carter in the electoral vote. Comparing today to that or the Depression era, or with the 1952 unpopularity of Truman suggests another similar EV blowout is in the works. And remember: by this weekend, millions of Americans with 401Ks will be reading their quarterly statements and feeling the direct weight of the economic losses they’ve already suffered. That WILL matter. More than any spin, any stupid politician tricks, or any conventional thinking about how to resurrect McCain’s chances.

3) Debate? So many await whatever’s left in McCain’s bag of October surprises that they overlook one very critical reality: for the past 20 months, at every critical juncture in the presidential races, Obama has outplayed his opponents. He’s overcome every guilt-by-association, outplayed the GOP-loving corporate media, and with only a couple of exceptions, run a big-gaffe-free campaign. And none of those big gaffes have occurred in the past 4 months.

So don’t overlook the possibiity that Obama’s been saving something special for this final debate, too. Which could have him peaking by next Monday, which is as close to perfect the timing of a peak as anyone can do, in the heart of early voting period and just 2 weeks before the majority votes.

Based on the convergence of all these element and the proper historical context, I now rate it a 65% probability that Obama will win two out of every three EVs (359 Electoral votes). To do that, he will win over (compared to Kerry) not just IA and NM, but FL, OH, MO, VA, CO and NC.

And he could outperform every pollster and outlier poll and haul in NV, WV, IN, ND, MT and GA, as unimaginable as that seems, to pull in as many as 401 EVs.

After all, Reagan pulled in 489 in 1980. Eisenhower had 442 in 1952. FDR had 472, 523, 449 and 432 in his 4 elections. And in the popular vote, the closest of these was FDR with a 7.5% margin in 1944 on the eve of WWII victory.

By comparison, predicting Obama can win by a 6% margin (52%-46%) with 359 EVs is a pretty conservative projection. In fact, from 1920 on, a span of 22 elections, only JFK in 1960, Nixon in 1968, Carter in 1976, and Bush in 2000 and 2008 fell short of 359. And taking it back 100 years, the record shows 359 EVs exceeded 72% of the time (18 of 25 elections).

So those are the better comparatives to predict by. And a 52% popular vote would exceed Bush in 2004, Reagan in 1980, with only 1964, 1972, 1984 and 1988 exceeding it in the past 50 years.

And that’s the smallest margin I see shaping up now: 359 EVs and a 52% popular vote. I’ll be curious to see in these final three weeks whether any other pollster or pundit will match or surpass my prediction. Not because Obama’s the greatest thing since sliced bread but because of the economic facts the country is facing and because Obama is simply so far superior to the Republican ticket.