MSNBC is taking a very cautious approach in its state-by-state analysis. But nobody’s questioning that Obama has yet to lose ground in a single state Kerry won, or that he’ll take back IA and NM from the Bush column. Per CNN, that leaves him just 5 electoral votes from victory, with nobody disputing that.

And MSNBC rates another 111 EVs as too-close-to-call tossups: CO, FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH, and VA

Any one of those, shifted to Obama, gives him the win.

So it’s very instructive to see what the internal polls of the campaigns are showing, as evidenced by where the candidates are busy campaigning today.

McCain campaigns in Missouri, making stops in St. Charles, Columbia, and Belton. Obama is in Florida, holding rallies in Tampa and (along with Hillary Clinton) Orlando. Biden is down, but Palin stumps in Colorado, hitting Colorado Springs, Loveland, and Grand Junction. Cindy McCain, in Pennsylvania, holds a rally in Philadelphia with Rudy Giuliani and another one in Yardley with Giuliani and Arlen Specter. And Bill Clinton is in Nevada, campaigning for Obama in Elko and Reno.

So all are in MSNBC’s tossup states except Cindy McCain. She’s in the only Kerry state they’re still contesting, PA.

And while ‘Biden is down’ he’s soon gonna be in McCain territory in WV, on Friday.

Those itineraries speak volumes. McCain’s almost exclusively playing defense now. His weakest campaigner, Cindy, is the only one playing offense, trying to expand that 5 pt Obama deficit to 26 EVs.

Setting aside MSNBC’s method of weighing more than the actual polls, PA is beyond McCain’s reach already and CO/VA are longshots for him to defend. And Obama’s campaigner locales suggest they think FL, NV and WV are worth more effort than OH, MO, NC and IN today.

The actual polls suggest both campaigns are correct, except for PA and WV. My read says McCain’s internal polling says certain robocall messages are finding traction in parts of certain states. And he’s accepting the loss of IA, NM and VA already, needs to hold all the others and pickup just one Kerry state. And he’s going to pour it on in PA which he absolutely MUST capture now.

And unlike MSNBC, I say the next week is the last gasp for McCain, because if he can’t swing the momentum by then, the final week is when the undeideds will roll in, and they’ll reflect the current momentum. A slight narrowing won’t cut it because McCain needs at least 5% of the 7% undecided in that final week.

(I’ve previously stated that I think Obama will capture all the battleground states, with only IN and NV tossups and add ND to that. Then make AR, MT, SC, WV and GA longshots for Obama, but not impossible. I stand by my earlier projection of Obama capturing a minimum of 375 EVs.)