In one of the tightest Senate races, Elizabeth Dole throws her Hail Mary pass:

That is also the premise of a recent television advertisement supporting Senator Elizabeth Dole, Republican of North Carolina, whose seat is an integral part of the Democratic drive toward 60 votes, as she fights to hold on against Kay Hagan, a Democratic state senator.

Ominous music plays in the background as a narrator intones: “These liberals want complete control of government, in a time of crisis. All branches of government. No checks and balances. No debate. No independence. That’s the truth behind Kay Hagan. If she wins, they get a blank check.”

Yet in another tight Senate race, her own Senate minority leader directly counters her downfield pass:

“I think the Senate operates best when it makes things happen in the middle, and that happens when you have 41 or more people who resist an idea to the point where you can compromise,” said Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader and a lawmaker whose own seat is at risk. “I think there will be enough Republicans plus discerning Democrats in the Senate after January to keep a kind of far-left agenda from steamrolling through the Senate like it often does through the House.”

He’s right: even if Democrats control 60 or more senate votes, so many moderate and conservative Democrats exist that any too-liberal slate of programs push will be stymied, even without Republican obstruction. Conversely, programs needed by millions of Americans - no matter what label is applied - will find a handful of moderate Republicans crossing over to get them passed, even if the Senate Dem majority falls short of the 60 seats sought. (And I hope Hagan and the DSCC run ads quoting McConnell to weaken her ad’s assertion).

In times of major economic and/or national security crisis, a majority of the country seeks pro-country partisanship, and won’t reward pro-ideology or pro-party partisanship. So the proper goal for liberals in the next four years is to focus on a narrow set of progressive policies favored by the middle-class. Achieving that will gain a greater reward in 2012, by moving the middle to the left. After 2012, the real opportunities for major liberal gains await.

So what is the proper narrow agenda for Obama’s first year honeymoon? Job growth via subsidized and public works infrastructure projects. Protection of retirement funds via market regulation that protects pensions and retirement accounts (and blocks privatization of Social Security). Passing Obama’s tax package. Home mortgage foreclosure prevention. Reducing US troop presence in Iraq by 65% by the end of 2009. And passing a phased-in affordable national healthcare program.

The latter will be the trickiest as the current economic crisis is now the chief impediment because - the argument goes - there’s insufficient funds to pass any of the Democratic healthcare plans proposed during the primaries. As an alternate, the goal should be to insure 100% coverage for everyone over 60 AND under 23 by 2009, then 100% coverage for everyone over 50 and under 26 by 2011, then 100% coverage for everyone by 2013. All three phases should be passed as part of one bill. It could even include the caveat that Congress in 2012 could amend the third phase, if it’s deemed necessary. It’d be unlikely to happen in that major election year, but would leave an out if the economy’s still in crisis.

For the most part, those six planks will likely continue to draw massive public support as all are tied to the pursuit of economic security. Pursuing the likeliest wins for the short term will bolster Democratic credibility and gain increasing public trust. That’ll clear the path to far more progressive pursuits after 2012.

That doesn’t mean complete ignorance of other progressive gains, as pursuit of advances in human rights issues cannot be scripted via any DC-driven timetable. It simply means there’ll be an unspoken agreement with Dem coalition participants that a number of desired reforms and progressive advances will be addressed eventually, instead of right away. Because strengthening a progressive majority has to come first.

I’m sure I’ll hear objections from many proponents of those other issues: global warming, environment, education, ending the drug war, prosecuting the Bushies, alternate energy, etc. All of whom I’m entirely sympathetic to and idealistically supportive of. I’m just pointing out that tactical, pragmatic progressivism requires populism, pacing and an awareness that economically, things are going to get much worse financially before economic insecurity subsides. As well, global financial leaders will be working overtime to limit wages to forestall inflation, so any means to build an economic floor means a determined, relentless fight. And if we fail to build that floor, support for all other progressive goals will be lost.

Progressives should ‘get it’ as Republicans still don’t

In the last week it’s become clear how divided the compassionless neoconservatives have made the Republican party. Moderate Republicans are suddenly endorsing Obama in droves. Even a few neocons have crossed over, not because they believe in Obama’s agenda, but because they don’t want to be marginalized and unemployed.

But among the GOP establishment or Village elders, the conventional wisdom is being clung to even though that wisdom is outdated and completely wrong. Events of unprecedented historic magnitude are moving far faster than those tired old neural synapses are capable of. Election Day is not the culmination of a progressive movement but just the beginning. Pragmatically pursued, it’s the leading edge of a new progressive era.

Currently, the GOP insider spin is to cast this election as an aberrant interruption of a longterm conservative-dominant era. So they’re busy blaming McCain or specific McCain insiders, or Palin, or Bush, for all the electoral woes they expect to endure on November fourth.

Some, like David Frum, seek short-term pragmatic electoral possibilities, possibly sensing and trying to forestall the end of the Conservative Revolution. Give them an ‘A’ for effort, but similar pragmatism from progressives will thwart their longer term objectives, even if they manage to prevent a 60-Dem-seat Senate this time.

Voters have caught on that a lot of smoke and mirrors accompany the GOP presidential ticket claims. But they’re still not fully aware that the love quadrangle wedding of Southern Strategy racialism to law-and-order authoritarianism, blue-collar tax break appeals and extremist moral supremacism has run its course. The GOP base is fractured and will become permanently divided quickly if progressive pragmatism becomes the first imperative.

Just as younger workers in the Depression era advanced Democratic ideals for a generation, so will the young worker base that led the Obama insurgency. That’s the grassroots base of the new Progressive Revolution. Older, Narrow Agenda and Single Issue progressives who do not remain responsive to that grassroots will find themselves as quickly marginalized as the DLC was this year. Older progressives, like Marshall Ganz and Howard Zinn, recognized the potential of the new progressive enthusiasts and upgraded their old school networking and organization skills to enable, not to thwart, that new grassroots. We should all be so wise and farsighted.

After all, it’s becoming clear that even after creating an economic disaster, the robber barons of the Gilded Class are still playing out their shell game, with more in store in the short term. Those aren’t part of a bailout for the majority of working and retired Americans. Those are the last greedy grabs of the class that launched and won the class war.

And Obama doesn’t stand for ‘redistributing their wealth’. He stands for recovering the booty taken by war and oil profiteers, public treasury raiders, and unapologetic thieves who have ransacked the middle class and bankrupted the poor.

Recovery first. That’s the shortterm goal of the pragmatic progressive agenda. There is no certain recipe to launch a progressive revolution. But there are certain ways to make one thrive and grow.