As a rare conspiracy theorist, I’d wondered if oil prices had been manipulated downward as a conscious effort to try and rescue McCain’s candidacy. Though I didn’t check on Election Day, I note that currently, average gas pump prices are cheapest in Missouri ($1.91), Oklahoma ($1.95), Ohio ($1.96) and Indiana ($1.98) while the highest average is in Alaska ($3.37).

Skeptics will say excessive speculation drove the prices up and now drive them down. But in my imagination, if oil execs, Saudi royals and others with a vested interest in profits were buying and selling large blocks of stocks, wouldn’t that influence other speculators to follow? I believe it could.

The trouble is, once too much fear grips the market speculators, the skidmarks can go longer than intended. But let’s set my particular paranoia aside and take a good hard look at the markets in general. Because I have to admit they’ve grown worrisome nd are finally starting to fulfill the warnings of top economic leaders whose formerly bullish comments have turned dire. They reassure that this won’t mirror the Great Depression, but will be worse than any recession in the interim.

However, there’s a lot of room between the Coolidge/Hoover Depression and the Reagan recession, so where the bottom will be found remains something the big kahunas remain leery of defining. Most are predicting it will occur in 2009 and the most bearish say unemployment will crest around 9% nationally.

Because I began daytrading a decade ago, I’ve become an avid market watcher, studying its patterns. I’ve not only researhed short term time frames but wherever I’ve seen potential for market bubbles to appear, I’ve researched parallels from other historic bubbles over the past 120 years. I’m not an economist but a number of active traders have relied on my calls about market turning points in the past decade because I’ve been fairly good at those calls with very few errors.

But, for the first time in that decade, I now have to admit I’m completely baffled. There simply are no parallels that I’ve found to what’s occurring now in the charts and there’s no way left to gauge the psychogy of speculators and traders. Other than a few days here and there, there hasn’t been a gripping panic, but there’s clearly no sign of confidence nor any abatement of fear.

Consider several points:

1) Most big market dumps have come in the Spring or Fall. This begain in the summer.

2) Presidential election years typically display the calm of indecision in October and November. Seeing such big drops in both months is not something I could have predicted.

3) It’s also common to see a bit of fall-off to close an election week. But we’re two days past that and the market’s still in decline.

4) Unless a business is headed to bankruptcy, the most bearish declines drop about 40% quickly, rebound for at least a couple of months, then gradually decline to a fresh low over many months. But the oil index (chart: OIX) went from 240 at the onset of the Iraq War, to 1031 in May of this year, more than a 300% gain in 5 years and 2 months. But since mid May, it fell to 454 in early October. So more than 2/3rds of that gain was given up in a stunning 4.5 months.

I can think of no other sector where I’ve seen such a rapid fall in such a brief time. Not even on the historical charts.

5) Major indexes like Nasdaq and the Dow historically plunge, rebound and take 30 to 36 months to bottom from where they peak. Right now, Nasdaq (symbol: comp)is 13 months from its peak, as is the Dow (symbol: djia). Historically, that suggests the earliest bottom we’d see would arrive around April of 2010. But the Dow’s already been testing its 2002-2003 lows. If it dips below 7200, the next three support points are around 6300, below 6000 and below 4000, levels not seen since the mid-1990s. And if Nasdaq breaks its October low, it’ll likely seek 1300. Or lower? Like I said, there’s little in the chart patterns I’ve seen to make a convincing case for anything.

6) All these indexes have traded up and down within a narrow range for the past month, likely mitigated by the election season. Bad news has been priced in by bearish speculators. And the most noteworthy events forthcoming are a Fed meeting December 16th and the Obama inauguration on January 20th. The best indicators to watch right now are Nasdaq - where a close below 1500 or above 1800 would signal its nearterm direction - and the oil index, where 475 and 630 provide its current parameters.

So what am I predicting or suggesting will come next? Well, seasonally, it’d be normal for oil prices to rise from a low between November and January to a high in May through July. However Saudi Arabia cut oil production trying to establish a floor around $70//bbl and we’ve crashed past into the high 50s despite that. So at some point, I expect to see oil trade below $47/bbl. But will that be right away or in 2010? Beats me.

In all the charts I’ve observed and projections I’ve made, my principal focus has been on tech (Nasdaq). I’m pretty convinced we’ll crash below its October floor at some point, where it will find a bottom between 1300-1375. If that occurs in the next two months, that should allow for a few months respite. But if that longer term 30-36 month decline period history has previously defined eventually holds sway, we could see NASDAQ back to 550-660, back to what it was in Clinton’s first year.

And don’t forget, that most of the trickle-down of this bear period has yet to reach most Americans. If the dire predictions top economists have made are useful as guidance, my best guess is they remain too optimistic. Maybe this won’t be as bad as the Depression, but it will mean unemployment HIGHER THAN 9% nationally. And globally, even worse numbers mean worse suffering and civil unrest.

Our new president will likely see the roughest first 7 months that any President’s had to contend with since FDR… or maybe the worst 18 months. As for the average US citizen, the only advice I have is to try and pay down every debt you have as quickly as possible, recycle, yard sale, limit transportation costs, replace some lawn with organic food gardens, fish more, keep your homes at 60 degrees when off to work. And if you can, put off major capital expenditures splurges to build a cash reserve to buy stocks near the bottom.

I predicted $4/gal gasoline under Bush and also said it would be under $2/gal before it ever reaches $5/gallon. But even at that, I never expected the decline would occur so fast. And the next 10 weeks have suddenly become the most critical at defining what the future portends.

I can say this with certainty: no matter how bad it gets, what you and your family face is very endurable. The main thing to keep in mind is that you need to throw away all personal yardsticks of what defines your value. Your capacity to be a good husband, wife, brother, sister, father, mother, nighbor or citizen will be the only measure that matters and that’s not monetary at all.

Just hang in there. There’ll be plenty of moments of mirth along the way, and this financial duress will pass. There’s tons of historical precedent to reassure you of that.