Almost every day, fresh diagnoses of or fresh prescriptions to the economic crisis are put forth. Much of it is political hogwash driven by partisan Republicans eager to see Obama and the country fail. That comes from the same party that spent the past sixteen years blaming everything that went wrong on President Clinton and are now blaming everything since November’s election on Barack.

Apparently, Bush was a mythical president, responsible for nothing at all.

That’s why it’s critically important to understand the last Republican Depression our country was handed, to understand what we can expect going forward. History won’t repeat exactly, but it’s likely to be its fraternal twin.

Ten points are especially worth considering:

1) This IS a depression. It’s just not officially one yet. That denial will end soon enough, within three quarters on the stock market. But for Main Street Americans who’ve lost jobs and homes, it’s already depressing, not recessing.

2) Scapegoating will point the blame finger at everyone else: Republicans, Democrats, CEOs, foreigners, the Chinese, whoever’s handy. In reality, poor government oversight caused by sloppy deregulation efforts over the past quarter century coupled with mismanagement by too many in the financials industries created the mess. Both parties had a hand in the oversight failure, though it’s roots took hold during Reagan’s term in office and grew throughout a period political historians refer to as a conservative revolution.

3) Yet, contrary to Reagan’s claim that a rising tide lifts all boats, many were not levitated on anything but longer working hours and more debt. That tide has now swept too many away, from jobs, homes, and a secure retirement plan.

4) Obama has an advantage FDR lacked: the capacity to consider FDR’s failed economic efforts. That permits him to utilize those policies believed to be successful by economists: capital infusion, public works and programs designed to limit the suffering of those hardest hit. Isolationism and protectionism are not on his agenda. But a very real danger remains.

This is a global depression. So even if Obama’s policies are exactly right, things can stay screwed up or grow worse if other economic powers make the wrong moves. The EU, as a major case in point, is a new hybrid economy. Will the French government be willing to bail out Spain’s banks, for example? What will more autocratic governments - like China or Saudi Arabia - do?

And our national economy can’t reverse on a dime. Obama’s stimulus plan can eventually stop the momentum of a freight train, but not immediately. In fact, I believe Obama must commit far greater amounts of cash before enough critical force is applied to reverse that momentum. Though a flexible socialism is the best salve for what ails us, Obama remains leery of steps that will provoke his political foes to label him as an extremist in that regard.

5) Obama’s preaching unity because he’s well aware what can come next. Bonnie & Clyde and John Dillinger became folk heroes for robbing banks during the last Depression because the public was angry with bankers for that misery. Today, in addition to physical robberies, hackers may find ways to do so electronically. Will we see a wave of e-robberies from people angry with financial executives?

6) Unemployment counting has changed through the decades, so an unemployment rate between 12% and 13% will roughly rival the worst (24.9%) of the Great Depression, once the longterm unemployed and part time workers are factored back in. Now at 8.1% nationally, our unemployment rate has not been as high since June of 1983. And when that is exceeded, only Great Depression numbers remain higher than that recession’s lows.

7) To get a clear picture of the current stock market trajectory, consider the worst bear markets of the past century. My best guess is a 29 to 33 month decline, or another 12 to 16 months from now before we reach the bottom.

8) The spectre of an economic class war is quite real. The active investor class (those engaged in trading beyond the more passive pension and retirement funds) clearly exhibits animosity towards Obama initiatives to tax the wealthy and narrow the huge income distribution gap that’s grown during the bubble years. For this reason, active investors choosing to limit their market investments till the market’s way undervalued can be viewed as a means of attempted political subterfuge.

Conversely, citizens at the lower end of the income spectrum are likely to prove rebellious towards the government if they feel they’ve been denied pensions and retirement benefits they’ve earned.

But it’s the controllers of capital who pose the greater threat. Revisit the attempted coup charges leveled by Smedley Butler in 1934 and realize extremists guys like Limbaugh, Hannity, Malkin, Coulter, et al, would love to foment a similar undertaking.

9) And again, since this is a global phenomenon, the class wars will rage in many countries, provoking acts of desperation that will wrongly be labeled ‘terrorism’. Organized terrorist groups will, however, also be operative, trying to marshal the poor and hungry to join their ranks. Look for those practicing Robin-Hood-ism to have the most success at that.

The long-term unemployed will be demonized by many who remain working, though they neither caused this slump nor prolonged it. It’s just a part of the ‘blame-the-victim’ attitude conservatives are famous for.

10) Finally, be aware that a stock market bottom always precedes the unemployment peak. So if - as I suspect - the market bottom occurs in Spring of 2010, unemployment could rise to its apex in 2011. And it’s also conceivable that a global war will be part of the means of recovery. Look for relatively powerful economies that have been decimated in recent years or where the population feels under attack by others. For this reason, I’d keep an eye on Pakistan and Russia as potential major trouble spots for the next decade.

So in the next few months, be sure to have a ready supply of soup recipes and coin-stuffed mattresses. We’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg of the uglies awaiting us ahead.